This report covers the beginning of the main dry season in Nigeria, during which, the second season maize, rice and other crops such as sorghum are grown. In the northern region, the harvest of the main maize started in August. It was followed by the sowing of the second season maize, which reached maturity in December or January. In the south, maize was harvested in July and August. The harvesting of rainfed rice started in August, followed by that of irrigated rice two months later. 

The Copwatch agroclimatic indicators show that the rainfall was below the 15YA (-25%) and the average temperature was slightly higher than the 15YA (+0.2°C). Rainfall had stayed below the 15YA starting in late August. Solar radiation increased by 5%.  Due to low rainfall, the estimated BIOMSS was below the 15YA (-4%). The observed maximum vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.89 and the CALF was higher than the 5YA (+1%). 

According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the NDVI of the country trended below the 5YA during the reporting period. The maximum VCI graph shows that the lowest value was found in the Sahel savanna region, while the highest values were scattered across the country. As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, about 40.9% of the total cropped areas, mainly distributed in the Guinea and Sudan-Sahel regions,  maintained almost a constant value and were near the 5YA during the entire monitoring period. Even though 3% of the country experienced the maximum dip, it can be seen that most parts of the cropped areas are around average. The strong negative departures can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images.

All in all, the crop conditions were below average in the Sudano-Sahelien zone and NGA Guinean savanna due to a rainfall deficit. Slightly better conditions, though still below average, were observed for the remaining regions.

Figure 3.32 Nigeria's crop condition, October 2021 - January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops 

(b) Time series rainfall profile of Nigeria

The highest rainfall is around 120 mm, which is slightly below the 15YA maximum of 170 mm, and the 15YA average reaches 110 mm. And rainfall was relatively low at  less than 30 mm within the period of reporting (October-January) which is the dry period.

(c) Time series rainfall profile of Derived savanna

The Derived savanna also recorded a maximum raifall of 130 mm. Even though the rainfall stretched over a long period of time, it  still did not reach the 15YA in the region. There was fluctuation between October and November, with 0 mm rainfall for the rest of the period.

(d) Time series rainfall profile of Guinea savanna

Rainfall in the Guinea savanna region was not stable as it fluctuated between months but the highest rainfall was recorded at 130 mm in August 2021.  The month of October up to January recorded the least or no rainfall.

(e) Time series rainfall profile of Humid forest

In the Humid forest,there had been more rainfall. The maximum raifall was about 170 mm and the region had experienced a steady increase in rainfall from July to September and it started to decrease towards November. Even though December and January recoreded the lowest raifall within the period the region still received  significant amount of rainfall in the month of October 2021. 

(f) Time series rainfall profile of Sudan Sahel region

In Sudan Sahel region, the maximum rainfall of 115 mm was recorded in August while the lowest was around October. No rainfall was recorded from November 2021 to January 2022. This region had experienced the least rainfall. This is the period when farmers have to rely on irrigation farming.

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Generally, the NDVI for the country gained a steady increase from the month of July 2021 to January 2022 compared to values recorded between January and May 2021, with the maximum value recorded for the period being 0.58 between September to October 2021 and it is relatively close to the 5YA. 

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

The Derived savanna also recorded a decline in the NDVI value in the month of July-August which increased to 0.66 in october 2021, but started to decline towards December 2021. The NDVI value for this region is also close to the 5YA.

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

The NDVI in the Guinea savanna recorded its highest value in September-October 2021 reaching 0.61 while the lowest value is 0.28 for the region. The maximum NDVI value for the region within the period is 0.49 and it is near the 5YA.

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

In the Humid forest,  the  NDVI recorded a high value of 0.6 in June, which dropped quickly to 0.4 between August and September 2021. It gained a significant increase from 0.59 between April-May 2021 to 0.65 in November 2021. Then it started to decline again in December. The graph above shows that the maximum NDVI value within the period falls below the 5YA  while the values for December and January are in line with the 5YA.

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

In the Sudan Sahel, the NDVI value increased to 0.28 in the month of June 2021 compared to the value of 0.26 in January 2021. It further increased to about 0.51 in September 2021 being the maximum value recorded. But by January it had dropped to 0.23, while on average, the NDVI values for the period are in line with the 5YA.

(l) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

As shown in the figure (l) above (spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map) about 40.9% of the total cropped areas maintained almost a constant value and were near the 5YA during the entire monitoring period and they were mainly distributed in the Guinea and Sudan Sahel regions. Even though 3% of the country experienced the maximum decrease, it can be seen that most parts of the cropped areas are around average.

(m) Maximum VCI

The figure above shows the VCI values. The minimum VCI is less than 0.5, observed in the northernmost fringes of the Sudan Sahel region. while the most observed in  the central shows the VCI range from 0.8-1.0 (green colour). The maximum VCI is greater than 1.0 and is sparingly distributed across the country.

Table 3.58 Nigeria's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.59 Nigeria's agronomic indicators by sub-regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 -January 2022