This reporting period covers the planting and vegetative growth of winter wheat, as well as the harvest of maize and rice in October. Crop conditions were favorable from October 2021 to January 2022.

Nationwide, RAIN (+23%) was above average, TEMP (-0.5°C) was below  and RADPAR (0%) was close to the 15YA. The three main agro-ecological regions had above average rainfall during this reporting period: The Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (+167%), Northern highland (+2%) and Northern Punjab (+183%).  Temperatures were below average in the three regions. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in a BIOMSS increase by 13% compared to the fifteen-year average.

October and November covered the senescence and drying down of rice, maize and cotton. Hence, the NDVI values provide little insights into the crop conditions. At the national level, they were above the average of the last five years in October, as shown by the NDVI development graph. Later in November the conditions decreased to below average, 32.3% of the cropped areas were slightly below average， mainly in the north of Sind, along the lower Indus river, some areas of Northern highland and Northern Punjab. Winter wheat was sown in November. Most of the Punjab and the lower Indus river basin, the two major wheat producing areas, had above-average condition according to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles. The national average of VCIx was 0.79 and CALF increased by 11%. Winter wheat prospects are favorable.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highland, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was sharply above average by 167%, while TEMP was on average and RADPAR was below average by 1%. BIOMSS was up by 26% as compared to the fifteen-year average. During early stages of winter wheat growth, from December to January, crop conditions based on NDVI development profiles were above average and exceeded the maximum value in January. More arable land was planted confirmed by the CALF at 76%. It was higher than the previous five years average by 14%. VCIx at 0.92 indicated favorable crop condition. Generally, crops have good prospects.

RAIN (+2%) was slightly above average in the Northern highland region, together with higher RADPAR (+1%) and lower TEMP (-0.7°C). As a result, estimated BIOMSS decreased by 3%. The NDVI development graph showed below-average crop conditions starting in November, evidenced by lower VCIx for most of this region. CALF was at 48%, an increase over the five-year average by 7%. Crop prospects are normal.

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded a far above-average RAIN (+183%). TEMP departure was -0.7°C, and RADPAR was below average by 2%. The resulting BIOMSS increased by 37%. Crop condition assessed through NDVI based crop development profiles showed close to average values in October and November. It subsequently increased to above average in December, and above the maximum value in late January.  The CALF reached 86%, which was 8% above the five-year average.  VCIx was high at 0.93. Overall, the winter wheat production potential for the region is high. 

Figure 3.34 Pakistan crop condition, October 2021 - January 2022

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                             c) Time series rainfall profile         

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       f) NDVI profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Lower Indus river basin)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern highland)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern Punjab)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2021- January 2022

  Table 3.58 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2021 - January 2022