During this monitoring period, the sowing period for both second maize and second rice in Philippines ended in December. Harvest of main season rice was completed by the end of December as well. The Philippines experienced drier and relatively warmer weather conditions. Compared to the 15YA, the precipitation in the Philippines was lower (RAIN - 6%), while the average temperature (TEMP + 0.1ºC) and radiation were higher (RADPAR +2%). The lack of precipitation resulted in a lower potential biomass (BIOMSS -3%) compared to the average. The NDVI profile for the country also shows that crop growth was consistently below average during the monitoring period. The NDVI profile shows two NDVI troughs, which occurred in early October and mid-December. They coincided with the timing of the two typhoons that passed over the Philippines: Typhoon Kompasu in early-mid October and Typhoon Rai in mid-late December, with Typhoon Rai causing greater damage to the crops. Cloud cover in the satellite images and flooding may have caused the sharp drops in NDVI. The typhoons also brought necessary rains for crop growth. For example, after the passing of the Typhoon Rai, NDVI recovered to average levels by the end of December. However, as shown by the time series of rainfall profile, the precipitation had dropped below average again starting in late December. Therefore, the precipitation deficit in January is likely to be the main reason for another decrease in NDVI. Overall, the estimated production in the Philippines is presumed to be slightly below average considering that the NDVI for the country was consistently below average, and the CALF index in the country decreased slightly by about 1%.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region (northern islands), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros), and the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands). All the regions are characterised by a stable cropped arable land fraction (CALF almost 100%) and a high maximum VCI value (VCIx ⩾0.95).

For the Lowland zone, lower cumulative precipitation by 17% (RAIN), higher temperature by 0.1°C (TEMP), and higher radiation by about 6% (RADPAR) were observed. The sunny weather created favorable conditions for the harvest of the main season rice. However, lack of precipitation resulted in a negative potential biomass bias of about 6% (BIOMSS) in this zone. Although precipitation was significantly lower, it still met the soil moisture requirements for crop planting, which is consistent with the crop growth conditions reflected by the NDVI profile for this zone. The NDVI profile shows that the NDVI was close to the average for most of the time. Although the below-average NDVI emerged in early October and mid-December, the results of spatial NDVI pattern shows that the two low NDVIs were caused by the negative NDVI departures appearing in dark green (mainly in Mindoro, Lucena and Naga) and blue area (mainly in eastern Mindoro and eastern Luzon), respectively. Considering that both NDVI departures were large and that NDVI returned to normal levels within a short period of time, it is highly likely that they were caused by cloud cover in the satellite images. Therefore, it is presumed that the crop growth in this area is normal.

In the Hilly region, cumulative precipitation was about 2% higher, temperature was 0.2°C higher, and radiation was 1% higher than average. Despite the slight increase in both precipitation and temperature, the potential biomass in this zone was about 2% lower than average. NDVI for crops in this zone fluctuated widely and remained below average during the monitoring period. Similar to the Lowland Zone, the troughs in NDVI occurred in early October and mid to late December, presumably also due to cloud cover in the satellite images. Nevertheless, the NDVI in this region was also below average at other times, mainly because the NDVI of crops in the yellow area (mainly located in Pannay, Bohol and Leyte island) was consistently lower than average by about 0.1. Therefore, it is assumed that the crop growth in this area was slightly below average.

For the Forest zone, the potential biomass was lower by about 1% (BIOMSS), although the precipitation remained near average. The average temperature was about 0.1°C higher (TEMP), and the radiation was near average (RADPAR). Similarly, NDVI in this zone was always below average during the monitoring period, and although there were also NDVI troughs, they were not significant, suggesting that cloud cover had less influence on the satellite images of this region. The spatial NDVI pattern shows that the sudden drop in NDVI appearing in dark green (scattered in Mindanao Island) and yellow areas (mainly in northwestern and middle Mindanao Island) is the main cause of the NDVI trough in this region. Although the CALF index in the area is close to 100% and the VCIx index is 0.97, it is presumed that the crop growth in the area is slightly below average considering the low NDVI.

Figure 3.35 Philippines' crop condition, October 2021-January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA             (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile (left) and rainfall profile (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Lowland region (left) and in Hilly region (right)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in Forest region

Table 3.61 Philippines' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021-January 2022

Table 3.62 Philippines' agronomic indicators by sub-natioanal regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021-January 2022