This monitoring period covers the maize harvest in October and the sowing as well as the growing period of winter wheat. Compared to the average of last 15 years, RAIN was lower by 10%, RADPAR was higher by 6% and TEMP was close to average, with a slightly lower BIOMSS (-1%). Cropwatch's last monitoring results indicated that winter crop planting may be slightly delayed, resulting in a lower NDVI than that of the corresponding period. However, the subsequent above-average precipitation combined with the near-average temperatures in October and November, favored the initial growth of winter crops.

The proportion of arable land planted was close to 100% and VCIx reached 0.95. Only a few regions had VCIx values below 0.5. They were sporadically distributed in eastern Poland. In general, the agrometeorological and agronomic parameters indicate favorable conditions for the growth of winter crops in Poland during this monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below. They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Compared to the average of the same period of the last 15 years, TEMP and RADPAR were both higher in Northern oats and potatoes areas (TEMP +0.3°C; RADPAR +3%) and Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (TEMP +0.2°C; RADPAR +1%), although with the lower RAIN (-3% and -7%), resulting in the higher BIOMSS (+1% and +2%). CALF in the two zones were both close to 100% and VCIx reached 0.92 and 0.89, respectively. Overall, crop conditions were favorable.

In Central rye and potatoes area, RAIN was below average by 9%, RADPAR was 4% higher, and TEMP was close to the 15-year average, which resulted in average estimates for BIOMSS. In addition, CALF was up to 100%, and VCIx reached 0.96. In general, crop growth conditions were favorable.

Compared with the average of last 15 years, RAIN and TEMP were both lower by 15% and 0.2°C, respectively, in Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, combined with higher RADPAR (+9%). The resulting BIOMSS was below average by 4%. In this zone, CALF was 99% and VCIx was 0.96. Crop growth conditions were normal.

Figure 3.35 Poland’s crop condition, October 2021 - January 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(h) Rainfall index                                                            (i) Temperature Index

Table 3.64 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.65 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 - January 2022