This monitoring period covers the completion of the sowing of winter crops in October. This is followed by early vegetative growth and a subsequent dormancy period over the winter.

At the national level, data show that NDVI before the snow cover establishment was mainly below the 5-year average, which indicates that the crop status before winter was slightly below average.

Precipitation in October was below the level of the previous year. In November and December, it was mainly close to the 15-year average. In the beginning of November and in the first half of January, the amount of precipitation exceeded the 15-year average. This helped build up snow cover and thus protect the plants against frost. 

Temperature from October till November was at the level of the last year and the 15-year average. From December, temperature was above the 15-year average and last year's value.

Major winter crop production regions mostly experienced positive NDVI departure with VCIx above 0.8. 

Only Middle Volga region and Ural and Western Volga region showed negative NDVI departure with VCIx below 0.8. Due to the lack of rainfall in the autumn, there was a delay in sowing, which resulted in later germination and emergence of winter wheat seedlings, which is reflected in lower NDVI values in these two winter crop production regions.

Regional analysis

South Caucasus

Rainfall in the South Caucasus was 7% below the 15-year average. Temperature was 0.4°C higher than the 15-year average. RADPAR increased slightly (+1%) compared to the 15-year average. Biomass was down by 2% from the 15-year average. Cropped area increased significantly and was 71% above the 5-year average. VCIx was 1.04.

NDVI was slightly higher than normal from the beginning of October till the end of December. Only in early January it was below the 5-year average due to snow cover establishment.

Generally, conditions for winter crops were favorable in this region, and its status was better than normal.

North Caucasus

In the North Caucasus, precipitation increased by 16% compared to the 15-year average. Temperatures increased by 0.8°C compared to the 15-year average. The RADPAR value was 2% higher than the 15-year average. The biomass value increased by 6%. Cropped area increased by 50% compared to the 5-year average. The VCIx value was 0.94.

The NDVI value at the beginning of the monitoring period and at the beginning of January was higher than the 5-year average. In early December, it dropped below the 5-year average and the level of the previous year, which indicates the establishment of snow cover.

These parameters indicate favorable conditions for winter crops in this region. Their status is likely to be better than normal.

Central Russia 

In Central Russia, temperatures stayed at the level of 15-year average, and rainfall increased by 8% compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR increased by 6%.  Biomass decreased by 2% relative to the 15-year average. Cropped area stayed at the level of the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.89.

NDVI was below the average during the report period except for early November.

Overall, winter crops status was below average for this region.

Central black soil area

In Central Black Earth Region, temperature increased by 0.4°C compared to the 15-year average. The amount of precipitation was equal to the 15-year average, and RADPAR was higher by 3%. The amount of biomass stayed at the 15-year average. Cropped area increased by 9% relative to the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.86.

During the period from October to the end of November, NDVI was above last year's value and equal to the 5-year average.

Overall, the conditions for winter crops were average in this region, and their status is likely to be close to normal.

Middle Volga 

In the Middle Volga region, the amount of precipitation increased by 8% compared to the 15-year average. Temperature increased by 1.1°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR decreased by 3% compared to the 15-year average. Biomass increased by 5% compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area was by 11% lower than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.71, the lowest in the Russian Federation.

During the period from October to the end of November, NDVI was below the 5-year average and the value of the previous year.

Conditions for winter crops were below average for this region.

Ural and western Volga 

In the Ural and the Western Volga region, the amount of precipitation decreased by 3% and temperature increased by 1.8°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR was below the 15-year average by 2%. Biomass was higher than the 15-year average by 6%. Cropped area was by 19% lower than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.71.

NDVI was below the 5-year average in October and November. At the beginning of November, it reached the 5-year maximum.

Conditions for winter crops and their status were below average for this region.

Eastern Siberia

In Eastern Siberia, the precipitation and temperature were higher than the 15-year average by 22% and 1.6°C respectively. RADPAR was lower by 4% compared to the 15-year average. Biomass was higher by 10% compared to the 15-year average. Cropped area was 2% lower than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.80.

During October, NDVI was below the 5-year average, but in November, it was equal to the 5-year maximum and to the previous year's value.

The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region, therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russia Federation.

Middle Siberia

In Middle Siberia, rainfall decreased by 3%, and temperature increased by 1.9°C compared to the 15-year average. RADPAR was at the level of the 15-year average. Biomass was 7% higher than the 15-year average. Cropped area was 13% higher than the 5-year average. VCIx was 0.85.

NDVI was close to the level of the previous year and to the 5-year average.

The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region, therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russia Federation.

Western Siberia 

In Western Siberia, rainfall decreased by 1%, and air temperature increased by 2.5°C relative to the 15-year average. The RADPAR was 9% lower than the 15-year average. Biomass increased by 7% compared to 15-year average. Cropped area increased by 12% compared to 5-year average. VCIx was 0.82.

NDVI was mainly close to the level of the previous year and below the 5-year average.

The area of winter crops is insignificant in this region, therefore its agroclimatic conditions will not affect winter crop production in the Russia Federation.

Figure 3.37 Russia’s crop condition, October 2021 – January 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)   Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(k) Rainfall index                                                                                    (h)  Temperature index

Table 3.68 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions. Current season’s values and departure from 15YA. October 2021-January 2022

Table 3.69. Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions. current season’s values and departure from 5YA. October 2021-January 2022