In October, at the beginning of this reporting period, maize and rice harvests were reaching the completion, while winter wheat planting was in progress. NDVI was slightly lower than the five-year average during the monitoring period. The sharp decrease in late January was due to snow. Both temperature and rainfall were below average (TEMP -0.2°C, RAIN -8%), but radiation was above average (+3%). The combined agroclimatic conditions resulted in a slightly below average potential biomass (-3%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased by 6% and the maximum VCI (VCIx) was 0.77. 

The spatial NDVI patterns almost exactly correspond to the spatial distribution of VCIx. NDVI was close to or slightly above average on 39.5% of the croplands (marked in blue), mostly in western and southern parts, including the provinces of Edirne, Tekirdag, Bursa, Balisesir, Eskisehir, Afyon, Manisa, Urfa, and Malatya. NDVI was below average during the whole monitoring period on 29.6% of the croplands marked in yellow. These areas are mainly located in the middle and southeastern parts including the provinces of Konya, Ankara, Kirsehir, Nevsehir, Mardin, Diyarbakir, and Siir, indicating below-average crop conditions. It is worth noting that the maps indicated a sharp decline for 30.9% of the cropland in middle to late January, which was due to snow cover. Precipitation was above the 15YA maximum in December. This ample precipitation will be beneficial for winter wheat. 

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZs): The Black Sea region, Central Anatolia region, Eastern Anatolia region and Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland region. 

In the Black Sea region, the NDVI was slightly above average only during mid-December, while below average during the rest of the monitoring period. Radiation was well above average (RADPAR +3%), while temperature and rainfall were below average (TEMP -0.3°C, RAIN -3%), resulting in a slight increase of biomass (-1%). VCIx reached 0.96 and CALF was up by 6%, indicating around average crop conditions.

The Central Anatolian region had below average NDVI during the monitoring period except for late December and late January. Radiation was above average (RADPAR +4%), while rainfall and temperature were below average (RAIN -11%, TEMP -0.3°C). The potential biomass production was below average (BIOMSS -4%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was largely above average by 22% and VCIx was 0.75.

In the Eastern Anatolian region, the NDVI was below average from December to January, presumably due to snow cover. This zone also experienced a precipitation shortage (RAIN -27%) and lower temperature (TEMP -0.1℃). Sunshine was good (RADPAR +5%). Biomass was down with the largest departure in subregions (BIOMSS -6%). 

As shown by the NDVI profile in the Marmara Aegean Mediterranean lowland region, NDVI was slightly below average during the whole monitoring period. The rainfall was around average, which was the smallest departure from the average among of the four AEZs. Radiation was 1% above and temperature was 0.2°C below the average. BIOMSS decreased by 1% and CALF increased by 2% compared to their respective average. The VCIx was 0.76. Crop production prospects are estimated to be fair to normal. 

Figure 3.40 Turkey’s crop condition, October 2021-January 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (c) Time series rainfall profile

(d) Time series temperature profile                            (e)  Maximum VCI

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.69 Turkey's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021-January 2022

Table 3.70 Turkey's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021-January 2022