This monitoring period covers the harvest of maize in October and November, as well as the vegetative growth stages of winter wheat, which was planted before November.

The whole country generally experienced warmer conditions. The start of the winter wheat growing season was hampered by below-average rainfall in September and October. Agroclimatic indicators showed that rainfall was 5% lower while temperature rose by 0.2 °C and sunshine increased by 8% as compared to 15YA. These climatic conditions were favorable for maize harvest. CropWatch estimated the potential biomass was 3% above 15YA. The agronomic indicators presented that the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was closed to the 15YA (-1%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) reached a moderate value of 0.77. The satellite-based NDVI graph shows that the crop conditions were lower than the 5YA throughout most of the period. The below-average development of NDVI in October was due to the continuous deficiency of rainfall from September to October and had a negative effect on the establishment of winter wheat. The drop in NDVI in December might have been caused by snow or cloud cover in the satellite images. High precipitation in December and January helped restore soil moisture and the crops may recover from the below-average conditions during spring green up. The spatial distribution of NDVI shows that NDVI in nearly all cropped areas substantially dropped in December and were 0.1 to 0.2 units lower than the average in mid-January. As shown by VCIx map, crop conditions were lower in southern Ukraine, VCIx was even below 0.5 in Kherson, Zaporizhia oblasts. All in all, the  situation was fair at the national level.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided below for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ), including the Central wheat area (including Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts), Northern wheat area (including Rivne, Zhytomyr and Kiev oblasts), Eastern Carpathian hills (Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts) and Southern wheat and maize area (Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts).  

In this period, Central wheat area, Northern wheat area and Southern wheat and maize area shared similar agroclimatic conditions. All these AEZs received less rainfall (from -3% to -9%) but had higher temperatures (from +0.2°C to +0.5°C) and above average sunshine (from +6% to 11%). CropWatch estimated the potential biomass was slightly higher (from +2% to +4%) in comparison to 15YA.  Agronomic indicators show moderate CALF (0.68 and 0.52) and VCIx (0.78 and 0.69) in Central wheat area and Southern wheat and maize area. This indicates overall moderate condition in these two AEZs. In the Northern wheat area, a 0.88 CALF indicates that most of the arable land is cropped. It also attained good VCIx of 0.84 showing good prospects for winter crops. 

Compared to the other three AEZs, Eastern Carpathian hills received normal rainfall (+0%) but experienced lower temperature (-0.3°C) and higher radiation(+9%). Biomass was estimated to be around the 15YA (-1%). Agronomic indicators show very good CALF (0.98) and VCIx (0.88). Despite the NDVI of this area being lower since December, all other conditions indicate good crop prospects.

Figure 3.41 Ukraine's crop condition,  October 2021 - January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Table 3.73 Ukraine's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.72 Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021 - January 2022