This reporting period begins in October 2021 and ends in January 2022. Winter crops were the dominant crop during this period, covering the sowing, tillering and overwintering stages of winter cereals. Overall, crop conditions for the winter crop were below average due to drought conditions that occurred in the Southern Plains and some states of the  Midwest.

As a whole, the United States experienced a relatively warm and dry winter. Compared with the 15-year average (15YA), precipitation was 12% below average, the temperature was above average by 1.0℃, and radiation was 4% above average. The agro-climatic conditions vary in the three winter crops producing areas: the Southern Plains, Northwest, and California. As the most important winter crop production area, the Southern Plains experienced extremely dry and warm winter weather with severe drought prevailing in the major states of the region. On the contrary, wet agro-climatic conditions were observed in Northwest and California.

The marked heterogeneity of agro-climatic conditions leads to significant differences in crop development across regions. Crop conditions were generally below average in the Southern Plains due to a rainfall deficit. The map of NDVI departure clustering indicated that crop conditions in the Southern Plains deteriorated starting in mid-November 2021. Unfavorable crop conditions are also captured by a VCIx below 0.5. On the contrary, favorable crop conditions were observed in California with almost all of the areas showing VCIx above 1. Above average crop conditions in California were also supported by NDVI departure above 0. Crop conditions in the northwestern U.S. were mixed, with good crop conditions occurring until late November and then returning to below-average conditions when winter crops entered the dormant period.

In conclusion, the crop condition of the winter crops was assessed as below average. In the next reporting period, winter crops will be at jointing to flowering stage with high water demand, and CropWatch will closely watch the agro-climatic and agronomic dynamics, especially in the Southern Plains.

Figure.1 10_1_USA

Figure.2 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.3 Maximum VCI

Figure.4 Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional Analysis

This reporting period covers the sowing and establishment of the winter cereals and focuses on three AEZs, the Southern Plains, Northwest, and California. 

2.1 Southern Plains

Southern Plains, the top producer of winter crops, experienced an extremely dry and warm fall and  winter with rainfall 23% below average and temperature 1.9℃ above average. Conditions in each state were as follows: Kansas (RAIN: -37%, TEMP: +2. 2°C), Oklahoma (RAIN: -28%, TEMP: +2.1°C) and Texas (RAIN: -27%, TEMP: +1.9°C). Although this period is in the early stage of winter crops and water demand is low, the serve drought hampered the growth of winter crops before overwintering. Poor crop conditions prevailed in this area. Potential biomass was 24%, 17%, 14% lower than the 15YA  in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas respectively. Departures in potential biomass (-12%), and CALF (-6%), as well as low value of VCIx (0.73) all indicated the unfavorable crop conditions in the Southern Plains. 

2.2 Northwest

Wet agroclimatic conditions occurred in the Northwest, such as Washington (rainfall: +20%, temperature: +0.1°C), and Idaho (rainfall: +6%, temperature: +0.8°C). Compared to the 15YA, precipitation and temperature are 10% and 0.5°C above average, respectively. NDVI curves indicate good crop conditions until mid-December. The good crop condition is also reflected in the VCIx value of 0.90. Wet and warm agro-climatic conditions had facilitated crop planting, with CALF 17% higher than average compared to the last 5-year average. If the good agro-climatic conditions continue, above-average production can be expected in the region.

2.3 California

California is the most important vegetable and fruit producing region in the United States, and an important winter wheat producing region. The weather in the region is dominated by a Mediterranean climate with wet and warm winters. The region experienced a favorable agroclimate that created a conducive environment for the sowing and tillering of winter wheat, as well as the growth of vegetable and fruits. Compared to the 15YA, rainfall was 19% above the 15YA and temperatures were 0.3℃ below. The development of the NDVI curve indicates good crop conditions, which are close to optimal compared to the 5-year average. The VCIx value for California was 0.88, reflecting good crop conditions. Warm and wet weather promoted crop planting, and CALF in California was 13% higher than average compared to the past 5 years. In summary, crop conditions in California were assessed as favorable.

Table 3.1 United States’ agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 to January 2022

Table 3.2. United States’ agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October 2021 to January 2022

Figure.5 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.6 Time series rainfall pofile

Figure.7 Time series temperature pofile

Figure.8 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure.9 Crop condition development graph based on NDVI