The monitoring period from October 2021 to January 2022 covers the sowing and early growth stages of winter wheat in Uzbekistan. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, TEMP and RADPAR were above average (+0.3°C and +3%), while RAIN was below average (-21%), especially in October and November. The Insufficient rainfall from October to mid-December and cooler temperature in October and November may have had a negative impact on the emergence and tillering of winter wheat. The BIOMSS decreased by 12%, and the NDVI development graph shows that the crop conditions were below the five-year average until January. This phenomenon is also visible in the NDVI cluster graph. More than 61.9% of the agriculture areas had below-average conditions in October and November. The national average VCIx was 0.72, and the cropped arable land fraction decreased by 26%. Close to average rainfall starting in mid-December and above average rainfall in January may help improve the situation during the green-up phase in the spring. For this period, conditions for winter wheat were unfavorable.

Regional analysis

In the Central region with sparse crops, the NDVI development graph shows that the crop conditions were below average from October to November, and close to the average in December and January. Rain was below average (-18%), while TEMP and RADPAR were slightly above average (+0.4°C and +3%). Consequently, BIOMSS decreased by 13% compared to the 15YA. The agro-climatic conditions of this region were unfavorable.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, RAIN was below average (-21%), while TEMP and RADPAR were slightly above average (+0.4°C and+3%). The cropped arable land fraction (17%) was the highest among the three main crop regions, but it decreased by 27% compared to the 5YA. And the BIOMSS decreased by 13%, the maximum VCI index was 0.69. The crop condition development graph also shows unfavorable conditions for this region from October to January.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, precipitation was 15% below the fifteen-year average and the average temperature was below average as well (TEMP -0.3°C), while RADPAR was slightly above average (+2%). These factors resulted in a slight decrease in BIOMSS (-9%).  The agro-climatic conditions of this region were unfavorable.

Figure 3.1 Uzbekistan crop condition, October 2021 - January 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on   NDVI	(c)    Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles                                       (g)   Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops (left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Aral Sea cotton region

Table 3.1 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA, October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.2 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, October 2021 - January 2022