In South Africa, wheat is the main crop harvested during this monitoring period. Maize sowing started in October for the east and in December for the west. Soybean planting also started in October.

Based on the NDVI development graph, the crop conditions were above the 5-year average during the entire monitoring period. At the national level, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that radiation was above the 15-year average (RADPAR +4%). With a lower rainfall (RAIN -34%) and a slightly lower temperature (TEMP -0.3℃), the potential biomass decreased by 11% compared to the 15-year average. The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.94, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased significantly by 25% compared with the last 5 years. According to the VCIx, conditions in the Mediterranean zone, where wheat is an important crop, were better than in the eastern region (like Gauteng, Mpumalanga). As to the spatial distribution of NDVI profiles, crop conditions on about 12.5% and 33.4% of the cropland were below or above average during the whole monitoring period, respectively. Crop conditions on 23.5% were average until November, then above average, and 30.7% was below average until December and then above average.The areas with negative departures were mainly in the center of the eastern region, most located in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, North West and Orange free state province. Overall, crop conditions were favorable.

Regional analysis

Rainfall in the Arid and desert zones was significantly above average (189 mm, +58%) and the temperature was near average (19.9°C, -0.6°C), whereas radiation was slightly above average (+2%), and potential biomass increased by 12%. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) increased significantly (+115%) and VCIx was 1.03. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI indicates that the crop conditions were generally above the 5-year average and even above the 5-year maximum in December. Crop production is expected to be favorable.

In the Humid Cape Fold mountains, the temperature was near average (19.4 °C, +0.1 °C), and rainfall was below average (268 mm, -33%). With lower rainfall, potential biomass was below the 15-year average (-10%). CALF was 97% and VCIx was 0.98. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI also indicates favorable conditions.

In the Mediterranean zone, the temperature was near average (18.2 °C, -0.1 °C), while rainfall witnessed a significant increase (147mm, +24%) and radiation was slightly above average (+1%). The estimated potential biomass increased significantly by 11% due to the sufficient rainfall. CALF increased substantially (73%, +28%) and VCIx was 0.93. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was above the 5-year maximum for most of the period. Crop conditions were favorable.

In the Dry Highveld and Bushveld maize areas, rainfall (168 mm, -39%) and temperature (20.0 °C, -0.4°C) were below the 15-year average. Radiation was near average (1529 MJ/m², +4%). Potential biomass decreased by 15%. CALF was significantly above the 5YA (94%, +28%) and VCIx was 0.92. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows the NDVI was above the 5-year average for most of the period. Crop conditions were favorable.

Figure 3.45 South Africa's crop condition, October 2021-January 2022

(a) Phenology of the main Crop

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall index 

(e) Temperature index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                            (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Arid desert (left) and Humid sub-tropical (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI semiarid steppe (left)  and Mediterranean (right)

Table3.81 South Africa's agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,

October 2021-January 2022

Table3.82 South Africa's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA,October 2021-January 2022