The reporting period covers the onset and establishment of the rainy season. It is characterized by the land preparation for and planting of rainfed cereal crops and legumes/pulses and the harvesting of irrigated crops. Late onset (November and December rainfall being below the 15YA) and reduced seasonal rainfall particularly in eastern parts dampened the agricultural production prospects for the 2021/2022 cereal production. Some heavy rains, recorded in early January, caused localized flooding and damage in most parts of southern Zambia. 

This monitoring period recorded a below normal rainfall of 551 mm (RAIN -37%), an average temperature of 24.6°C (+1.1%) and an average radiation of 1366 MJ/m2 (+4%), resulting in potential biomass production reduction (BIOMSS -15%). The cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was 96% (-2%) and the VCIx was 0.84. Countrywide, climatic indicators generally showed unfavorable condition for early crop establishment for the main cereals (maize, sorghum and millet) and pulses/legume (soybean, groundnuts, cowpeas, sunflower, beans, pumpkins etc).

Regional analysis

The analyses of the agro-ecological regions show that the rainfall was below normal in all regions. The reduction ranged from -43% (Western Semi-arid Plateau) to -31% (Luangwa-Zambezi Rift Valley) resulting in reduction in potential biomass production by  (-17% to - 11%) in all three regions. The average temperature in the regions varied from 23.3°C to 25.5°C with positive departure (+0.7°C to 1.3°C) from the 15YA. The radiation in all agro-ecological zones was more than 1247 MJ/m2. A  negative departure (-6%) was observed for the  Western Semi-Arid region. 

The observed Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was above 91% in all the regions however the crop condition based on NDVI showed low coverage in later parts of the reporting period. The maximum vegetation health index (VCIx) was the lowest in Central -Eastern Plateau region (0.80) and Northern High Rainfall (0.82) while Western semi-arid and Luangwa-Zambezi valleys (0.89). In general, the traditionally low rainfall regions experienced increased rainfall, hence favorable conditions for crop productions. The weather outlook indicates a higher-than-normal probability of above-average cumulative rainfall, which portrays favourable yield prospects for the 2021/22 cereal crops. The potential risk is the infestation of fall army worms and outbreaks of African migratory locusts in southern and western provinces. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily due to constraints on incomes and economic access to food has been a key factor contributing to food insecurity at national level. Despite a slow start of the season CropWatch expects a below-average to average production for 2021/2022 season.

Figure 3.1 Zambia crop condition, October 2021 - January 2022

Table 3.1: Country’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2021 – January 2022

Table 3.2: Country’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2021– January 2022