This chapter starts with a brief overview of the agro-climatic and agronomic conditions in China over the reporting period (section 4.1). Next it describes the situation by region, focusing on the seven most productive agro-ecological regions of the east and south: Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, Huanghuaihai, Loess region, Lower Yangtze, Southwest China, and Southern China (4.2). Section 4.3 describes trade prospects (import/export) of major crops. Additional information on the agroclimatic indicators for agriculturally important Chinese provinces are listed in table A.11 in Annex A.

4.1 Overview

Agro-climatic conditions were quite favorable in China from October 2021 to January 2022. Rainfall and temperature had increased by 18% and 0.3°C over the 15YA, respectively. Radiation was 3% below the 15YA. The abundant rainfall resulted in the above-average potential biomass (+11%). Due to the complexity and variability of climatic conditions in China, weather conditions vary over different agroecological zones. Temperatures in six of the agroecological zones (AEZs) of China were at or above average, ranging from 0.0°C to +1.0°C. Only Loess region had slightly below-average temperature (-0.1℃). All AEZs received above-average rainfall, and the departure of rainfall from the 15YA ranged from +9% to +113%. The potential biomass is a synthetic indicator taking rainfall, radiation, and temperature into consideration. Potential biomass in all seven AEZs was above average, with the smallest positive departure of +6% in Southern China and the biggest positive departure of +31% in Huanghuaihai and Loess region, indicating rather favorable agroclimatic conditions.

Rainfall departure clustering and temperature departure clustering reveal detailed spatiotemporal patterns. 65.9% of the agricultural area (marked in blue) had near-average rainfall, mainly covering Northeast, southern part of Northern China, Southwest, and northern part of Southern China, etc. Other regions in China went through some small fluctuation in rainfall. Excessive rainfall (more than +110 mm/dekad) occurred mainly in early October in the provinces of eastern Sichuan, southern Ningxia, central Shaanxi, Shanxi, southern Hebei, northern Guangxi, Guangdong and some parts in adjacent provinces. Cultivated area marked in dark green, mainly in Lower Yangtze region, also received largely above-average rainfall (almost +60 mm/dekad) in middle October, mainly in some parts of Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian. As for the temperature departure clustering, dark green marked region, mainly in Northeast, had the biggest fluctuation with the biggest positive departure (more than +6.5℃) in early December and biggest negative departure (almost -4℃) in late December. However, there was no crop in this area during the monitoring period, so the highly fluctuated temperatures had no impact on the crops.

Higher-than-usual rainfall, which caused localized flooding conditions and excessively wet soil in the field, delayed the sowing of winter wheat, especially in Loess region and Huanghuaihai. A record-breaking rainfall caused devastating floods and landslides, mainly located in the provinces of Shanxi and Shaanxi in October. The planted area of winter crops decreased by 2 percent in Shanxi and 1 percent in Shaanxi. On the other hand, the adequate soil moisture is beneficial for the growth of winter crops, so the crop conditions in these areas were quite favorable. Moreover, the areas along the Yellow River, especially near the cities of Zhengzhou and Kaifeng in Henan province, and Liaocheng and Dezhou in Shandong provinces, were flooded for a long period and the planting of winter wheat was also delayed. The crop condition was below average in these areas, reflected by the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx).

At the provincial level, only 4 provinces (Jiangxi -12%, Fujian -6%, Guangdong -4%, and Anhui -1%) had negative rainfall anomalies. The negative temperature anomalies were only recorded in 5 provinces, ranging from -0.5°C (Ningxia) to -0.1°C (Guangxi). Winter wheat cultivated across northern China is going through the overwintering period, while there were hardly any crops grown in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia during this period. Although the wet conditions in October caused a delay in winter wheat planting especially in the Loess and Huanghuaihai regions, good soil moisture condition is beneficial to the growth of winter crops after the wintering period. If the agroclimatic conditions during the greenup stage are favorable, it may be helpful to compensate for the impact of late sowing of winter wheat. In general, prospects for winter wheat production are still close to normal.

Table 4.1. CropWatch agro-climatic and agronomic indicators for China, October 2021 to January 2022, departure from 5YA and 15YA

Figure 4.1. China crop calendar

Figure 4.2. China spatial distribution of rainfall profiles, October 2021 to January 2022

Figure 4.3. China spatial distribution of temperature profiles, October 2021 to January 2022

Figure 4.4. Cropped and uncropped arable land over winter crops producing provinces, by pixel, October 2021 to January 2022 

Figure 4.5. China maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), by pixel, October 2021 to January 2022

Figure 4.6. China Potential biomass departure from 15YA, by pixel, October 2021 to January 2022