Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2021

Maize

 In 2021, China imported 28.35 million tonnes of corn, 1.5 times the same period last year, the main source countries of imports were United States and Ukraine, accounting for 69.9% and 29% of the total import respectively.

 Rice

 In 2021, China imported 4.96 million tonnes of rice, an increase of 68.7% over the same period last year, with the main import sources being India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar and Thailand, accounting for 22.0%, 21.7%, 19.4%, 16.0% and 12.9% of the total import respectively. The domestic and internatiaonal price difference and feed demand gap are the main factors for the increase of imports.

 Wheat

 In 2021, China imported 9.77 million tonnes of wheat, an increase of 16.6% over the same period last year. The main source countries of imports were Australia, the United States, Canada and France, accounting for 28.1%, 27.9%, 26% and 14.6% of the total import respectively.

 Soybean

In 2021, China imported 96.518 million tonnes of soybeans, a decrease of 3.8% over the same period last year, and the main source countries of imports were Brazil, the United States and Argentina, accounting for 60.2%, 33.5% and 3.9% of the total import respectively.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2022

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2021 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will decreased year-on-year and the export will increase slightly in 2022.

The global maize market maintains a relatively loose supply and demand pattern, but affected by climate, the dispute between Russia and Ukraine and other uncertain factors, the market price fluctuation intensifies. It is expected that China's maize import will fall in 2022 from this year's high, but it will remain at a relatively high level, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.6% and export will increase by 2.2%.

 The global rice market has maintained a loose supply and demand pattern, and the relationship between domestic feed grain supply and demand has improved. It is expected that the growth rate of China's rice import will decline in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 7.5% and export will decrease by 2.4%.

 The supply-demand relationship in the global wheat market is tightening, and the price is bullish. However, the structure of China's wheat import is relatively stable, and the feed demand has a downward trend. It is expected that China's wheat import will decrease by 16.3% and export will increase by 3.2% in 2022.

  Affected by La Nina, the global soybean supply and demand is are tightening, and the domestic soybean consumption demand is relatively stable. It is expected that China's soybean import will be basically the same as last year, and the import will slightly increase by 1% and export will decrease by 6.8% in 2022.

Figure 4.16 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2022 (%)