This bulletin includes only the major producers in the Equatorial region, and the Southern Hemisphere where crop development is sufficiently advanced to ensure that estimates are reliable. Some isolated Northern Hemisphere countries are also included such as Pakistan, and India.
CropWatch production estimates rely on crop-specific remote sensing indicators, i.e. based on different crop masks for each crop. For each crop listed in Table 5.1, both yield variation and cultivated area variation are taken into account when deriving the production estimates. Depending on the agricultural practices, crop growing stages, and environmental conditions, different indicators are used to as predictor variables and to calibrate the yield model for each country.
Maize
Table 5.1 lists the results of the maize production prediction for eleven countries, including the 2nd and 3rd largest exporters: Brazil and Argentina. The total maize production of the 11 countries roughly accounts for 20% of global production. Suffering from prolonged drought in Central Brazil, maize production dropped by 5% from 2021. The first season maize in Central and Southern Brazil was severely affected by the drought, resulting in a 7% production drop. Although the rainfall in January 2022 is beneficial for second maize, water deficits in the major maize producing states still exist, and a 4% decrease of second maize production is projected by CropWatch. Dry weather further expanded to Paraguay, while Argentina received sufficient rainfall for the summer crops. Favorable soil moisture benefitted maize development, contributing to a 9% increase in production. Drought conditions also occurred in several major maize producing countries in Africa. Kenya and Zambia experienced continuous drought since or even before the sowing of maize, resulting in a drop of maize production by 13% and 8%, respectively. Shortage of rainfall delayed the sowing of maize which caused the decrease of planted area as compared to 2021. Meanwhile, insufficient soil moisture also hampered the development of maize and reduced the average maize yield. Adverse weather conditions in major maize producing regions in South Africa damaged maize yield and the maize production dropped by 2% from 2021. Although maize in North-West Mexico sown in September 2021 was affected by drought, the total maize production for 2021-2022 is still 3% above 2020-2021. Favorable conditions benefitted all crops in Angola with a 12% production increase for maize as compared to the 2021 drought year. Maize production in Mozambique, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia are all projected to be slightly above 2021.

Rice
This current production prediction mainly focuses on the key producing countries in South and Southeast Asia. Rice production of most countries remains close to that of 2021 except for Bangladesh, where weather conditions mostly benefitted Aman rice development, with rice production up by 7% from 2021. In Cambodia, low water levels in the Mekong River and drought at the early growing stage of dry season rice and the key growing period of rainy season rice affected rice output. Total rice production is estimated to drop by 2%  from the previous year. Rice production of Mozambique, Brazil and Argentina decreased by 5%, 2% and 5% mainly due to the reduced yield. The combined output from the 12 countries monitored, accounting for 36% global rice production, is expected to increase by 1.5%.

Wheat
The harvest of wheat in Southern Hemisphere including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, South Africa and Zambia concluded by the end of 2021. This bulletin focuses on the wheat producers in tropical and sub-tropical regions including Egypt, Morocco, India, Pakistan, and Mexico. Among these countries, wheat production in Morocco is forecast to drop by 27% from 2021 bumper production as affected by the lack of water. Significant negative departures of rainfall result in reduced yield and planted area. In contrast, Mexico outputs 22% more wheat compared with the previous drought year, which might result in decreased wheat imports. As wheat are mostly irrigated in Egypt, India and Pakistan, the wheat production is mostly affected by the wheat planted area. It is observed by satellite imageries that wheat area expanded from the previous year in the two Asia countries while it decreased in Egypt. A slight increase in Pakistan and India, by 4% and 3% respectively, is forecasted. Wheat production is projected to drop by 2% from 2021.

Soybean
Brazil and Argentina are among the top 3 exporters of the commodity. CropWatch projects increased soybean production for both countries. In Argentina, favorable meteorological conditions benefitted the soybean in major producing states including Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires, resulting in a 3% increase of soybean yield and a 4% increase of soybean production. In Brazil, drought in central and southern Brazil resulted in lower soybean yields in Parana and Rio Grande Do Sul. The largest soybean producing state, Mato Grosso, is less affected and an increased production is estimated. The national soybean production is forecast at 97,374 thousand tons, up by 1% from 2021.

Table 5.1 Preliminary 2022 production estimates in thousands tonnes for selected countries in Equatorial region, and Southern Hemisphere as well as early crops in the Northern Hemisphere. Δ% stands for the change in % compared with the corresponding season in 2021