CropWatch Cloud

Bulletin

wall bulletin

In Madagascar, which had been hit hard by a prolonged drought, a series of floods caused by heavy rainfall (226 mm falling during the night of 17-18 January 2022) hit the country’s capital Antananarivo and other areas of the Analamanga Region in the center of the country. The floods caused the death of 11 people, landslides, and destruction of infrastructure. In Mozambique, tropical storm Ana made landfall in Angoche District, Nampula province, on January 24th. The storm significantly affected Zambezia and Tete provinces, causing the displacements of citizens, widespread floods, damages to public infrastructures and private homes, and interruption of basic services. As reported by the national government, the storm affected 180,869 people, injured 207 people, and killed at least 38 people, mostly in Zambezia, Nampula, and Tete provinces, flooding a total of 70,982 hectares of land.

Figure 5.1 Impact of tropical storm Ana on six Mozambican provinces includes Nampula, Zambezi, Tete, Niassa, Sofala, and Manica. Data as of February 8th, 2022.

Drought

The end of 2021 witnessed an extreme drought in the state of California (USA), while the first two months of 2022 are shaping up to be the driest January and February in California's history. On October 5th, 2021, the drought map showed that around 50% of the state was under exceptional drought, while most of the remaining area was under extreme drought conditions. A heavy storm in the last week of October brought some relief to the area. As of January 4th, the situation had improved to severe drought for most of the state.

Figure 5.2 Maps show what California’s drought situation looked like on October 5th, 2021 (left), December 21st, 2021 (middle), and January 4th, 2022 (right). (Source: U.S. Drought Monitor)

In Southern Africa, rainfall was significantly below average across Madagascar, Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, and northwestern Zimbabwe starting in October. Although rainfall improved in these areas in early January, significant delays in the rains were expected to impact crop production by reducing or delaying the planted area directly. The pastures' quality and livestock health will be highly dependent on the amount and distribution of rains. Besides the impact on agriculture, around 336,000 people (29% of the total population) are predicted to be facing high acute food insecurity and require urgent humanitarian assistance between December 2021 and March 2022 due to severe drought conditions. In Tanzania, several media outlets have reported that more than 62,000 animals have died as a result of the drought.

Figure 5.3 The Onset of 2021/2022 season rainfall compared to average timing, as of 10 January 2022. Source: USGS/FEWS NET.

In Morocco, the Moulouya River, a 500-kilometer waterway that is one of the longest rivers in the North African kingdom and a vital lifeline for farmers in areas near the Algerian border, was cutoff for the first time in November 2021 due to years of drought and over-pumping. Due to the lack of rainfall and the drop in reservoir levels to unprecedented levels, Moroccan experts warn that the country is experiencing one of the worst droughts in the last three decades, which will lead to huge losses in cereal and legume crops. In addition to cereal production, high feed prices under the impact of the drought are also having an impact on the local livestock industry, and many farmers are selling their herds.

Figure 5.4 A farmer walks down his dried-out melon field in Morocco.

In Afghanistan, a prolonged, multi-year drought, in addition to the war, has caused a severe food shortage. The humanitarian situation in Afghanistan in 2021 was one of the worst globally, with nearly half of the population – some 18.4 million people – already in need of humanitarian and protection assistance in 2021. The UN World Food Program (WFP) reached approximately 9.4 million people with food assistance across 34 provinces between September 1st and December 30th, 2021. With the current drought conditions in 2022, an estimated 22.8 million people, or 55 percent of the population, are expected to be in crisis or at the emergency levels of food insecurity (IPC 3+) between November 2021 and March 2022.

In Syria, more than a decade of war has caused tremendous suffering for the civilian population. Northeastern Syria is experiencing its worst drought in nearly 70 years. It is exacerbated by Turkey's decision to withhold water from the Euphrates River. Historically low water levels in the Euphrates River have not just reduced access to water for drinking and domestic use for over five million people, but also triggered substantial harvest and income losses, decreased hydroelectricity generation, and an increase in water-borne diseases. In the mid to long-term, these developments are expected to have serious and cumulative impact on health, food insecurity, malnutrition rates, as well as the environment, with potentially irreversible consequences.

Jordan also faced an unprecedented drought crisis in recent months. The King Talal Dam, the Kingdom's largest dam, was at dangerously low levels, and six water dams out of 14 had dried up due to rainfall shortages. The dam covers 80% of the water needs of farmers in the Jordan Valley, which amount to 400,000 to 550,000 cubic meters per day, and the drying up will directly affect the irrigation of local crops.

In the Mekong River, the mainstream flows have dropped to their lowest levels in more than 60 years during the last three years due to reduced rainfall, construction of dams and diversion of water into other basins. This impacts not only the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, but the delta in Vietnam as well, where increased salinization of the rice fields is hurting production.

High fertilzier prices

In addition to the impact of trade restrictions and social distance restrictions in the context of COVID-19, higher fertilizer prices under the influence of the energy crunch, export restrictions, and trade sanctions are expected to have a large impact on agricultural production. The average retail price of most fertilizers reportedly continued to climb in the second week of February 2022. Russia is a low-cost, high-volume global producer of all major fertilizers and the world's second largest producer of potash after Canada. The war of Russia against the Ukraine and ensuing sanctions against Russia are expected to hurt trade flows and may lead to further increases in fertilizer prices. In Belarus, potash supplies account for one-fifth of the global supply. Sanctions have already led to turmoil in the potash market, leaving global potash contracts settled at the highest prices since 2008. The rise in fertilizer prices is expected to have a negative impact on food production in developing countries. From avocado, corn and coffee farms in South America to coconut and oil palm plantations in Southeast Asia, high fertilizer prices are putting pressure on farmers in developing countries, making cultivation expensive and forcing many to cut back on production. According to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a global nonprofit organization, demand for fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa could fall by 30 percent in 2022. That would mean 30 million tons less food produced, which is equivalent to the food needs of 100 million people. Concerns about food production will in turn further boost rising food prices. In the U.S., wheat prices hit its highest level in nine years amid supply concerns. In addition, soybean prices climbed to a nine-year high.

Figure 5.5 The Fertilizer Crisis Is Getting Real for Europe Food Prices, by Yuliya Fedorinova, Megan Durisin, and Veronika Gulyas, January 21, 2022 (left), Wheat Hits Nine-Year High on Supply Fears, by Megan Durisin and Allison Nicole Smith, February 23, 2022 (middle), Soybeans Soar to 9-Year High With South America Supply in Doubt, by Kim Chipman and Megan Durisin, February 23, 2022 (right).

Desert locust

After more than two years of threatening the agricultural and pastoral livelihoods and the food security of millions of people, mainly in the Horn of Africa and Yemen, the desert locust upsurge has finally declined. On January 4th, 2022, the last control operations took place against the remaining immature swarms in northeast Somalia. No more locusts were seen in Ethiopia and Kenya, where the dry conditions reduce the likelihood of any future development of new swarms. Limited breeding regions were still observed along the Egypt/Sudan border on the Red Sea coast, as well as in northern Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.

Figure 5.6 The distribution and movement of desert locusts in January 2022, as observed by FAO (https://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/common/ecg/1914/en/DL517e.pdf).

External links

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2021/12/30/major-floods-mark-the-end-of-2021/

https://floodlist.com/asia/indonesia-floods-landslides-november-2021

https://reliefweb.int/report/indonesia/indonesia-flooding-asahan-regency-north-sumatra-18-nov-2021

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/st-2022-000138-mdg

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/02/global-worries-2022-covid-climate-change/

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35454

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/18/us/colorado-wildfire-kruger-rock.html

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/fire/202111

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/31/us/colorado-wildfires.html

https://www.eptrail.com/2021/11/16/630-p-m-update-kruger-rock-fire-crews-to-monitor-overnight-resume-fight-in-the-morning/