The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of April 2022. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing weather conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries") while chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) are harvested this year or currently still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from January to April 2022. 

Agroclimatic conditions and global warming

Temperatures keep raising, though at a slightly slower pace thanks to  La Niña. While the global average increase in March was “only” 0.95ºC over the 20th-century average, it nevertheless caused much larger increases at the regional scale. Temperatures in the northwest of India, as well as in the Punjab of Pakistan were above 35ºC during the grain filling stage of wheat in March. This caused terminal heat stress and a yield reduction by 15-20% in some regions.

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon during the first three months of 2022 has increased by 64% compared to the same period last year. The total burned area in 2022 reached 43,000 ha, more than twice the average of the past ten years.

Ukraine, the commodity market and food security

Russia Ukraine conflict brought uncertainties to world food supply. Before the conflict , Ukraine used to export about 27 million tonnes of maize and 21 million tonnes of wheat. This represents a 11 to 13% share of the world market. It also is the second largest exporter of barley and the largest exporter of sunflower oil, with a market share of 40%. As shown in our special section on “The impact of the Russia Ukraine conflict on global food security,” potential production levels for winter wheat are almost unchanged, due to favorable weather conditions – yet the conflict impacts farming operations, logistics and trade, and it is almost impossible to forecast the levels of commodity exports for the coming months. Partly due to the large uncertainties and fueled by speculators, commodity prices have risen sharply.

According to the remote sensing-based estimates, the winter crop area increased 3.8% in Ukraine, the production of winter crops increased 2.1% (520 thousand tonnes). The area increase of winter crops in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine has led to a doubling of production in both regions. However, the conflicts bring uncertain for the coming harvest season.

Agroclimatic conditions and crop production

In the Northern Hemisphere, wheat was the dominant crop that was in the field during this period. It had reached maturity in India and Pakistan by March. In most other production regions, it was still in its vegetative growth phase at that time. The planting of spring wheat, soybean and rice had started or was already in full swing in most northern regions by late April. In South America, maize and soybean were the key crops to be monitored. The harvest of the first crop, mainly soybean, and the subsequent sowing of the second crop in Brazil took place in February, whereas the harvest of the main crop in the other South American countries was well advanced by April. Closer to the Equator, this report covers the end tail of the harvest of the main season rice crop and production of the winter rice crops (Boro/Kharif) in South- and South-east Asia. 

Global rainfall patterns were strongly affected by the current La Niña conditions. The largest rainfall deficits, exceeding more than -30%, as compared to the 15 year average, were observed for Central-Eastern Brazil, the West-Coast of North America, the Horn of Africa, as well as Afghanistan.  Negative departures of rainfall, in the range of -30 to -10%, were also observed for  a large region stretching from Morocco to Afghanistan. Most of the European part of Russia, most of China, as well as South-east Asia and Australia experienced rainfall that was at least 10% above average.

Impact of weather conditions on crops

Maize: Argentina and Brazil contribute about 40% to the maize that is being traded internationally. Conditions in Argentina were favorable. In Brazil, the regular, though below average rainfall ensured favorable conditions for the important second season (safrinha) maize. Hence, CropWatch estimates a production increase by 9% for Brazil and 2.9% for Argentina, amounting to  a combined increase by roughly 11 million tonnes. Maize production during the rainy season in Africa south of the equator was negatively impacted by irregular rains, but production levels stayed close to average. However, Kenya was hit by a severe drought, causing a decline in production by 12.9%. Maize production in South and Southeast Asia benefitted from generally favorable conditions. Maize planting started in April in North America and Europe. So far, weather conditions have been favorable, although the weather has been cooler than normal in the USA and drier than normal in most of Western Europe.  Total global production is forecasted at 1009 million tonnes (+0.8%).

Wheat: In China, wheat benefitted from favorable weather conditions in recent two months. The crop more than compensated for the delayed sowing in last fall. Nevertheless, there was a slight reduction in area, causing an overall reduction of production by 1.2%. A heat wave hit the northwest of India and the Punjab of Pakistan in mid March. The ensuing terminal heat stress caused a fast brown-down of the crops and shortened the grain-filling period. At the national level, this resulted in wheat production decreases by 4.9% to 25.57 million tonnes in Pakistan and by 2.8% to 93.24 million tonnes in India. Severe yield losses for the rainfed wheat production are forecasted for the drought stricken countries of the Maghreb, Near- and Middle East and Central Asia. Production in Morocco is estimated to have declined by 40%.  The south of the USA is also affected by drought conditions. Significant yield reductions are to be expected for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Abundant rain in recent weeks has caused rather favorable conditions for the upcoming planting period of wheat in Argentina, Brazil and Australia. CropWatch estimates a decline in global wheat production by 1% to 713 million tonnes, which continued the wheat decrease since 2021 and world wheat supply is still with tension.

Rice: Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India, the largest rice exporter. Production is estimated to increase by 1.5% year on year. Conditions were also favorable in Bangladesh (+4.2%) and Vietnam (+1.7%), whereas a slight decrease in production by -0.7% is forecasted for Thailand. Conditions for the other important rice producing countries and regions, such as the Philippines (-0.2%) and Indonesia (+3.1%) were average or above. CropWatch forecasts a slight increase of total global rice production by 0.7% to 769 million tonnes.

Soybean: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay produce more than half of the world's soybeans traded on the international market. Conditions in Brazil for soybean production were unfavorable due to drought conditions from October to December. CropWatch forecasts a decline by 7.4% to 89 million tonnes, whereas for Argentina, a slight increase by 0.3% to 51 million tonnes is expected. In the USA, Canada and the Ukraine, soybean sowing started at the end of this monitoring period, in late April. Soil moisture conditions are mostly favorable in these countries, but the war causes high uncertainties for the Ukrainian production. Conditions in May will determine the area planted and crop establishment. CropWatch foresees a decline in global soybean production by 3.3% to 310 million tonnes.