2.7 Central Europe to Western Russia

This monitoring period covers the dormant winter season and the spring green-up of winter cereals in Central Europe and western Russia. In general, the agroclimatic indicators in this MPZ were close to average, including 5% higher precipitation, near-average temperature, and 5.9% lower RADPAR, as compared to the 15YA. Crops of this region is mainly rainfed, the agrometeorological conditions play a decisive role in crop growth.

According to the spatial distribution map of rainfall departure, the precipitation in most areas of the MPZ fluctuated around the mean during the monitoring period. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were as follows: (1) From January to February, the precipitation in most of northern and western Russia and parts of Ukraine (43% of the MPZ) was above average. (2) From early February to late March, the precipitation in the MPZ declined to below average. In mid-March, precipitation was below average in all production areas. The largest precipitation deficits were observed in southern Belarus, western Ukraine, northern Moldova, Romania, and parts of Poland (20.1% of the MPZ). (3) From mid-March to mid-April, 38.2% of the MPZ received above-average precipitation, mainly in northern Russia, northeastern Ukraine, northern Belarus and parts of Poland.

The temperature departure distribution map shows that the temperature departures followed the same trend across the entire MPZ. The specific spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were as follows: (1) From January to February, temperatures were above average in 80.3% of the MPZ, mainly in the eastern and northwestern parts of the MPZ. (2) In early and mid-March, temperatures within the MPZ were below average. (3) In April, 45.7% of the MPZ had above-average temperatures, mainly in Russia and parts of eastern Ukraine.

The potential biomass in the MPZ was 0.5% lower than average. The potential cumulative biomass in the eastern part of the MPZ was more than 10% above average; due to the regional drought, the areas in which with potential cumulative biomass was reduced by more than 20% were mainly located in southern Ukraine, southern Moldova, southeastern Romania and Hungary.

During this monitoring period, more than half of the arable land in the MPZ was cultivated, with a CALF value of 57.3% (-11.6%). The uncultivated arable land was mainly distributed in the northeastern part of the MPZ, northern Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova. Russia Ukraine conflict may have contributed to the negative departure with postponed crop sown. The average maximum VCI for the MPZ reached a value of 0.82 during the monitoring period, the regions below 0.8 were mainly in southeastern Russia, Ukraine, and Moldova. The VHI minimum map shows that the eastern part of the main production area, parts of Ukraine, and Moldova were affected by below-average rainfall.

Overall, CropWatch agroclimatic and agronomic indicators show that crop growth was expected to be above average during this monitoring period. However, the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine has significantly increased the area of uncultivated arable land in the Ukraine, which may lead to lower total food production in the region.

Figure 2.6 Central Europe-Western Russia MPZ: Agriclimatic and agronomic indicators, January-April 2022.

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles                                                                         b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles                                                                  d. Profiles of temperature departure from average (℃)

e. Biomass accumulation potential departure                                                              f.Cropped arable land

g. Maximum VCI                                                                                                          h. VHI minimum