Chapter 3. Core countries 

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

3.1 Overview 

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports have been dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina and the Ukraine. Together, they have supplied three quarters of maize being traded internationally. This may change this year due to the war in the Ukraine. During this monitoring period, rainfed maize was produced in the southern hemisphere, whereas in India, Bangladesh and Myanmar maize was grown in the dry winter months under irrigation. Production in these countries, as well as in South Africa and Paraguay is mainly for domestic consumption, with limited exports. After some drier conditions in December, rainfall improved in Argentina and during the January to April period, rainfall was more than 30% above the 15YA. CALF was high, and thus above-average production can be expected. In Brazil, conditions were sub-optimal for the 1st maize, which is mainly grown in the south, due to drought conditions. However, conditions greatly improved thanks to more abundant rainfall for the second maize crop, which is usually sown after soybean. Rainfall was below average during the monitoring period in India. However, rainfall during the dry winter season is generally very low, and farmers rely on irrigation for maize production during the winter months. The main maize production season is during the monsoon (Kharif), and production during the winter months (Rabi) contributes only about 15% to the total production. With temperatures and solar radiation being close to normal, average maize production can be expected for India during the monitoring period. South Africa is the largest maize exporter in Africa. Sowing was delayed because of lack of rainfall, and slightly below average production can be expected. Maize production in Kenya was greatly reduced by the severe drought conditions. Maize planting started in April in North America and Europe. So far, weather conditions have been favorable, although the weather has been cooler than normal in the USA and drier than normal in most of Western Europe. Weather conditions in the Ukraine are rather favorable, but the war causes large uncertainties.

Rice: Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India, the largest rice exporter. The region of irrigated dry season (Boro) rice production is limited to West Bengal, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Assam. However, Boro rice yields are much higher than those obtained in the Kharif (rainy) season. Another region with important dry season rice production is Southeast Asia. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2nd and the 3rd position of exporting countries. In these two countries, crop conditions were favorable. Water levels in the Mekong have recovered to average levels, enabling the farmers to irrigate their rice crops during the dry season. Conditions for the other important rice producing countries and regions, such as the Philippines and Indonesia were generally favorable. Hence, all in all, rice production is stable at a global level.

Wheat: Spring wheat sowing in Australia, Canada, Northern USA, Russia and Kazakhstan started in April. Depending on the local conditions, the sowing period lasts until May or early June. So far, soil moisture conditions have been rather favorable in these countries. Wheat tends to be grown in drier regions, where water is the limiting factor, except for the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the North-China Plain, where wheat is irrigated. In these two regions, conditions for wheat production have generally been favorable. Most wheat in India, apart from Punjab and Haryana had been harvested by the time the heat wave hit the country in mid March. In Punjab and Haryana, most fields were hit in the midst of the grain filling period. The terminal heat stress caused a high percentage of shriveled grains and yield reduction by 15-20% in these two states. Winter wheat is an important crop in the drought stricken Maghreb, Near and Middle East. The drought caused significant yield reductions in all countries of these regions, except for Egypt, where all wheat is irrigated with water from the Nile river. The south of the USA is also affected by drought conditions. Significant yield reductions are to be expected for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Abundant rain in recent weeks has caused rather favorable conditions for the upcoming planting period of wheat in Argentina, Brazil and Australia.

Soybean: In the USA, Canada and the Ukraine, soybean sowing started at the end of this monitoring period, in late April. Soil moisture conditions are mostly favorable in these countries, but the war causes high uncertainties for the Ukrainian production. Conditions in May will determine the area planted and crop establishment. Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay produce more than half of the world's soybeans traded on the international market. Conditions in Brazil for soybean production were unfavorable due to drought conditions from October to December. In Argentina, where a high percentage of soybean is sown after the wheat harvest in December, conditions were favorable. 

Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

(1) Rainfall

Rainfall in Brazil was below average during the previous and remained below average during this monitoring period as well, but rainfall levels were in general sufficient and evenly spread to ensure good conditions for finishing off the first season crop and ensuring good growth for the second season maize crop. In Argentina, rainfall had been below average from mid December to early January. This had a negative impact on crops sown in October. However, soybean, which is usually sown in December and January, benefitted from above average rainfall during the January to April period. Conditions for maize production were generally favorable as well. Below average rainfall caused unfavorable conditions in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. In Central America, however, rainfall was above average, although this was the dry season. Main crop production will start in May. Conditions in Mexico were near average. In the South-west of the USA and California, the severe drought conditions continued. The important winter wheat production states of Texas and Kansas, Colorado as well as the north-west of Oklahoma were affected by a severe rainfall deficit, ranging between 10 to 30% below average. Rainfall conditions in the more northern states and in the Canadian Prairies were normal to above average, although in some regions, excessive soil moisture causes delays in sowing of the summer crops. In Europe, the UK, France, the Iberian Peninsula, as well as Italy and all countries in the South-East experienced a moderate to severe precipitation deficit. These drought affected countries are important winter cereal producers. Other important winter cereal producers, such as Germany, Poland and the Ukraine experienced close to normal conditions. Russia west of the Urals, as well as Kazakhstan, had average to above average precipitation, creating a favorable environment for wheat production. Conditions for winter cereal production in the Maghreb, the Near and Middle East as well as in Central Asia were highly unfavorable: Wheat yields in countries and regions that rely mostly on rainfed wheat production, such as Morocco and Syria, as well Central and Eastern Anatolia and the Kurdish regions in Turkey, Irak and Iran were reduced due to severe precipitation deficits. The drought conditions in Afghanistan continued, although high rainfall in January had brought some relief. Another region that was affected by drought was the Horn of Africa. Especially in Kenya and Tanzania, crop production was reduced. While conditions were mixed in southern Africa, an uneven distribution of rainfall hampered crop production in most countries of southern Africa. In India and Bangladesh most production of winter wheat is irrigated, hence the drier than usual precipitation had little impact on crop production. Rainfall was above average for China, causing favorable conditions for winter wheat production and land preparation for the upcoming rice growing season. In South-East Asia, above average rainfall generated favorable conditions for rice production, which was aided by normal water flow levels in the Mekong river. In Australia, high rainfall helped establish good moisture conditions for the upcoming wheat growing season.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of January to April 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent

(2) Temperatures

Temperatures are insofar important for crop production, as they control the start of the growing season and early crop growth in temperate regions. For planting of maize and soybean, soil temperatures need to be at least at 10ºC in order to ensure an even germination.  Untimely freezing conditions, which usually occur at the beginning and end of the growing season can cause large damage or even kill crops. Among the main crops covered in this report, only wheat can withstand freezing temperatures. Excessive heat with temperatures higher than 32ºC, in combination with dry conditions, can cause yield reductions for  wheat due to terminal heat stress, as experienced in Pakistan and the northwest of India in March. Temperatures above 35ºC can cause pollen sterility in maize. Taking these points into consideration, the temperature departures in South America and Africa did not have a big impact on crop production. In North America, the below average temperatures caused a slight delay for planting of maize in the corn belt. The above average temperatures in Russia, which were centered around the Urals, accelerated spring green-up of the winter crops.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of January to April 2022 average relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in °C. 

(3) RADPAR

The pattern of solar radiation departures tends to mirror the rainfall departures. Rainy conditions are generally accompanied by increased cloud cover and therefore, lower solar radiation. Rainfall deficits tend to go together with clear skies and above average solar radiation. In Argentina, most of the important crop producing provinces had average to slightly below average solar radiation levels. Below average solar radiation levels were also observed for the south of Brazil and Paraguay. Further north, up to the southern corn belt of the USA, radiation levels were mostly above average, especially in the USA. Its northern states, as well as most of Canada, experienced below average radiation levels. All of Europe, apart from Russia and the Ukraine, had sunnier conditions than usual. In Africa, solar radiation was 1 to 3% below average for Tunisia, Egypt, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Madagascar. The largest negative departures were observed for Namibia and Libya. Solar radiation levels were above average in the Near and Middle East, as well as in South Asia. Conditions were more cloudy than usual in China, Myanmar and North Korea. The important rice producing countries Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, the Philippines and Indonesia had average to strongly above average solar radiation levels.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of January to April 2021 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent. 

(4) Biomass accumulation potential

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly the tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high latitude regions, temperature may also become the most critical limiting factor. The strong positive departure (>+10%) for potential biomass production for most of Argentina indicates that conditions were favorable. To the contrary, the important crop production regions in Brazil had a negative departure by more than -10%. Conditions were average for most of the other regions in South and Central America. Mexico, the USA apart from the Southeast and Canada had negative (-5 to -10%)  to strongly negative departures. Similarly, most of southern and eastern Europe had a mix of negative to strongly negative departures. Conditions in the north of Europe as well as most of Russia west of the Urals and Kazakhstan had average to strongly above average conditions. In the Near and Middle East, as well as the Maghreb, negative to strongly negative departures dominated. Similarly, the Horn of Africa and southern Africa as well as the West African countries bordering the Sahel had a strong negative departure. Neutral to strongly above average solar radation levels dominated most of Asia. Only the east coast of India, Bangladesh, Shandong province in China as well as South Korea had a negative departure of potential biomass production. Conditions were strongly above average for Inner Mongolia, and the Loess Plateau in China, as well as Southeast Asia.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of January to April 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent.