This report covers the full cycle of dry winter season rice (Boro) and wheat crops, both of which are irrigated. The winter months were much drier than usual.

The proportion of irrigated cropland is only 53% and agro-meteorological conditions play a decisive role. Rainfall is not the major influential factor.

Rainfall was 40% below average between January and April. The temperature was 0.1°C below the 15YA. The recorded RADPAR was close to the 15YA. The resulting BIOMSS was below average (-10%). Sufficient sunshine and less rainfall from November to January were beneficial to the planting of Boro rice and wheat as reflected by the 96% CALF. However, the drought in February and March influenced their growth. VCIx was only 0.89 in Bangladesh. The national NDVI development curve shows that crop conditions across the country were close to the 5YA before April and below the 5-year average in April. The nationwide NDVI spatial pattern shows that 24.7% of the cultivated area, mainly distributed in the Gangetic plains, was slightly below the 5YA. 67.8% of the cultivated area was close to the 5YA, while 7.5% had a sharp drop in April and then returned to the 5YA. The drop was due to cloud cover in the satellite image. The maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) map shows that the conditions for the winter crops were favorable with most areas showing values higher than 0.8. Overall, crop conditions in the country were slightly below average. The rainfall deficit had a limited effect on the irrigated rice and wheat production.

Regional analysis

Bangladesh can be divided into four Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ): the Coastal region, the Gangetic plain, the Hills, and the Sylhet basin.

In the Coastal region, both RAIN and BIOMSS were below average (-65% and -13%, respectively), TEMP was slightly below average (-0.1°C) and RADPAR increased by about 2%. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average until April and then below the 5YA in April. CALF was at 86% and VCIx at 0.82. They indicate unfavorable conditions in this region.

The Gangetic plains also experienced a large drop in rainfall (-45%). Both TEMP and RADPAR were close to the average. The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were close to the 5-year average during the whole monitoring period except for April, and BIOMSS decreased by 11% due to low rainfall. CALF (97%) and VCIx at 0.88 indicate slightly below-average prospects.

In the Hills, rainfall was 52% below average. TEMP and RADPAR were also below average (-0.1°C and -1%, respectively). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were above the 5YA at the beginning of the monitoring period, and then below average in April. BIOMSS was below average (-13%) with scarce precipitation, CALF was 97% and VCIx was 0.88, indicating crop conditions were slightly below average.

In the Sylhet Basin, agro-climatic conditions were all below average, including RAIN (-27%), TEMP (-0.2°C) and RADPAR (-2%). The crop condition development graph based on NDVI shows that crop conditions were below average in March and April. The BIOMSS was 7% below average, with VCIx of 0.9 and CALF at 99%, indicating slightly unfavorable crop conditions.

Figure 3.9 Bangladesh's crop condition, January-April 2022

 (a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall Index

(e) Temperature Index

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA              (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coastal region

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Gangetic plain

(j)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Hills

(k)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Sylhet basin

Table 3.9 Bangladesh’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2022

Table 3.10 Bangladesh’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2022