During the previous monitoring period, rainfall was below average in October and early November. This caused a poor establishment of the winter cereals. Winter wheat was the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. The proportion of irrigated  cropland is only 0.4% and agro-meteorological conditions play a decisive role. The sowing of spring wheat started in March. During this monitoring period, rainfall and temperature were above the 15YA (RAIN +15%, TEMP +0.4°C), whereas solar radiation was below average (RADPAR -11%). This resulted in a potential biomass decrease (-4.1%). Agronomic indicators did not show a satisfactory vegetation condition index (VCIx 0.7) while the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by about 26%. The NDVI profile shows very low values in January and February, presumably due to snow cover. Cooler than normal temperatures in March and April had slowed the development of the crops. The spatial patterns of NDVI profiles shows large fluctuations. In most of the areas VCIx was low during this time. Crop conditions were below average during this monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses are provided for three agro-ecological zones (AEZ): Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus suffered drop in radiation (-11%), while temperature and rainfall were above average (TEMP +0.4°C, RAIN +18%). This condition resulted in a potential biomass decrease by 4%. Agronomic indicators showed that CALF dropped sharply compared to the 5YA level (-43%). VCIx war rather low as well (VCIx 0.67). Starting from January, the regional NDVI development curve was close to but below the long-term average. 

Central Belarus was also affected by low photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR -11%), while temperature and rainfall were above the 15YA (TEMP +0.3°C, RAIN +16%). The VCIx had a value of 0.76, and CALF was 76%. The potential biomass was also expected to decrease (-4%). Similar to Southern Belarus, the NDVI growth curve started to improve to close to the average trend from January to March, but dropped below the 5YA level in April.

Radiation in Southern Belarus was significantly lower by 13%, while temperature and rainfall were higher by 0.2°C and 9%, respectively. Potential biomass was also estimated to decrease by 4%. And like Central Berlarus, CALF and VCIx were 74% and 0.76 respectively. 

Figure 3.10 Belarus's crop condition, January – April 2022.

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series 

(g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2022.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2022