This bulletin covers the main growing period for soybean, rice and main maize in Center-South. The harvest of those crops almost concluded by the end of April. Second season maize, safrinha, mainly cultivated in Centre-South, reached peak growing stage in March and April and the harvest will start in late May. Rice in the North and Northeast reached the peak of its growth in April. The sowing of maize in the Northeast and wheat in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul starts at the end of the monitoring period.

The proportion of irrigated cropland in Brazil is only 12% and agro-meteorological conditions play a decisive role in the growth of most crops. Since the beginning of the rainy season in September 2021, Brazil experienced prolonged drier and warmer-than-usual weather.  From January to April, Brazil received 628 mm rainfall on average, 38% below the 15YA. CropWatch Agro-Climatic Indicators (CWAIs) present 1.1°C higher temperatures and 4% above average radiation compared with the 15YA. Above average temperature and radiation further accelerated the soil moisture loss and further exacerbated the drought conditions. Altogether, the adverse weather resulted in a 19% reduction of potential biomass. Most major agricultural states in central and southern Brazil suffered from severe water shortage while few states in the North received well above average rainfall. Among the top eight major agricultural producing states, only Rio Grande Do Sul received average rainfall (+2%) compared with the 15YA. All other major states experienced significantly below average rainfall with warmer temperature and higher radiation. Low rainfall, high temperature and radiation resulted in below average BIOMSS in all major agricultural producing states except for Rio Grande Do Sul (-2%) and Santa Catarina (+2%). It is also noteworthy that although the weather conditions in the Brazilian main producing states are significantly below the 15YA, the situation is still much better than in the same period of 2021, when the drought conditions were more severe. Only two major states, Mato Grosso, and Santa Catarina experienced drier conditions compared to JFMA 2021 according to the RAIN indicator.

Tracing back to the start of the summer season in September-October 2021, the prolonged dry conditions reduced the overall crop vigor as shown by the continuously below-average vegetation greenness in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI. Nevertheless, the amplitude of the negative NDVI anomalies were narrowed since March 2022 and the NDVI recovered to the 5YA in early-May. Similarly, spatial distribution of NDVI departure from the 5YA and the corresponding profiles also presented significantly below-average NDVI in central Mato Grosso, southern Mato Grosso Do Sul, western Parana, and northwestern Rio Grande Do Sul before March, but recovered to average or above-average level at the end of the monitoring period (dark green region). The below average vegetation greenness before March indicates a reduced production of soybean and first season maize. While no evidence shows the weather conditions were getting better after March, satellite images revealed that the overall recovered crop vigor after March was mainly due to the expanded second maize planted area compared with 2021 and the 5YA. It might be driven by the high maize price after Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. March is still a good sowing window for the second maize in Center and South Brazil. Accordingly, the VCIx map also presents scattered high values (> 1.0) in Central Brazil (figure b). Favorable rainfall in East Coast benefitted crop development which also presented above 1.0 values of VCIx while Northwestern Rio Grande Do Sul presented poor crop conditions with VCIx values below 0.5 due to the drought at peak season in February to March. At the national level, VCIx was 0.91 and almost all cropland was cultivated, indicating overall limited effects from the dry weather on the sowing of the crops especially for the second maize producing regions.

In general, while crop conditions in Brazil were slightly below average due to the dry and warm weather, the agroclimatic conditions were still relatively more favorable for second maize compared with the same period in 2021. Also, the expanded second maize planted area compared with 2021 compensated the drought affects, resulting in large increase of second maize production.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna (31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). During this monitoring period, dry and hot weather dominated in most AEZs especially in Center South Brazil which was mainly affected by the La Nina effect since the middle of last year.

Central Savanna (31) and Mato Grosso (34) were the two AEZs hit most hard by the exceptional drought, even worse than 2021 during the same period. Rainfall was 72% below average in Central Savanna which resulted in well below average NDVI as presented in the crop development profiles. The impacts were more complicate in Mato Grosso as the monitoring period covered the growth and harvest of first maize and soybean as well as the sowing and growth of second maize. Drought lowered the outputs for first maize and soybean in the region. For the second maize, the significantly below average rainfall in April hampered the second crops development when crops were in high water demand stages, threatening second maize yield. Rainfall was even 20% below 2021 levels. Fortunately, planted area for second maize increased significantly from 2021 which somehow compensated the lower yield impacts.

Parana Basin (36), another major agricultural producing zone, received less than half of the 15YA rainfall during the monitoring period. Adverse weather resulted in poor crop conditions and lower yield for soybean and first maize. Although rainfall was still less than the 15YA since March, it was much higher than the same period in 2021, bringing a relatively better crops development progress for second crops. NDVI based crop development profiles also confirmed the above 2021 crop condition in the second crops growing season. Second maize yield is projected to be above 2021 for the region.

Southern subtropical rangelands (37) experienced 9% above average rainfall but with an irregular distribution. In January and February when first season crops were at peak growing stage, low rainfall and high temperature resulted in poor soil moisture and crop conditions. Crop vigor is below average as reflected by NDVI profiles. When crops reached maturity, above-average rainfall was observed but it was too late for soybean and first maize. Also, the wet weather was unfavorable for the harvest.

Nordeste (35) is dominated by dry and hot weather. As most crops are irrigated in the zone, the abnormal weather had limited effects on the maize. The irrigation mitigated the drought effect, leading to the above-average condition and the highest VCIx values for this zone, as compared with others. Vegetation greenness became lower than average since March which might be attributed to lower planted area for second crops.

Weather conditions in Coast zone (32) was generally normal resulting in close to average crop conditions. Almost all cropland was cultivated with average VCIx at 0.93. However, as recorded by rainfall profiles, the well below average rainfall since late February slowed down the crop development with slightly below average NDVI after February, indicating less favorable conditions for the second crops.

Production outlook

According to CropWatch estimates, the planted area and yield of Brazil’s first maize both decreased in 2022, resulted in a decrease of 8.7% in production at 22,589 thousand tonnes. Driven by the increasing maize price, the planted area of second maize expanded by 9.2% from last year; Although dry and warm weather dominated whole Brazil, the agroclimatic conditions were still less adverse compared with 2021 for second maize, resulting in 6.7% increase of yield for second maize. The production of the second maize is projected at 68,298 thousand tonnes, up by 16.5% from 2021. The total maize production reached 90,887 thousand tonnes, 9.0% increase from the last year. Although rice growing area slightly shrank 0.1%, the yield decreased by 9% and production decreased 9.1%. Since soybean yield and growing area both decreased, it’s estimated that soybean production will decrease to 89,205 thousand tonnes with 7.4%.

For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil’s crop condition, January - April 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters   (e) NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters in figure d

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.14  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, January - April 2022

Table 3.15  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, January - April 2022

Table 3.16 Brazil's production outlook in 2022