Kenya experiences two rainy seasons: The long rains last from March to September and the short rains from October to December. Maize can be grown during the long and short  rains, whereas wheat is grown during  the long  rains only. In  the monitoring period from  January  to April 2022, the short  rain maize had been harvested and the sowing of long rain maize began, while the planting of wheat will start in May only.  

At the national scale, precipitation was 204 mm, 55% below average. When looking into sub-national level, rainfall was lower in all areas. The weather was slightly warmer (TEMP +0.6°C) and RADPAR was slightly above the 15YA (+5%). BIOMSS was 21% lower than average due to insufficient rainfall. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10‐day accumulations of rainfall presented conditions that were close to the 5YA in January to February and below  the  average in the following two months.

The  NDVI  development  graph  at  the  national  level  hovered  along  the  5YA  trends  in  January  to Mid-February but the NDVI values were below average in March and April. It can be noticed that the below‐average  rainfall  in March and April resulted in this situation. At the same time, the lower precipitation in March and April may lead to a delay in long rain maize planting. Therefore,  conditions  for  the  short  rains maize were more  favorable  than  for  the long  rains maize (sowing in March and April). Based on the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, the western and central part of Kenya (red area), which accounts for 35.6% of the country's cultivated land, has near-average NDVI values, while other areas show significant deviations in the January to May crop growth. This is consistent with the maximum VCI graph which shows that the green spots representing VCI between 0.8 and 1.0 were equally distributed in the central and western  regions. The  national average VCI value  reached  0.80 and  the cropped arable land  fraction decreased by 2% as compared to the 5YA. In brief, the national crop condition is below average, due to the planting of long rains maize suffered from drier‐than‐normal conditions in March and April. 

Regional analysis 

In the Eastern  coastal  region,  the  rainfall  was  greatly  below  average  (‐50%),  which  resulted  in  a decreased estimate for biomass (‐24%) while the temperatures (+0.8℃) and RADPAR (+3%) were moderately above average. The low rainfall delayed sowing and establishment of the long rainy season maize. The NDVI values stayed below the 5YA and the CALF decreased by 10% to 83%. The maximum VCI  was  0.64, which is the lowest among the four AEZs in Kenya. Overall, the crop  conditions  were below average  for  both livestock and crop production in the coastal areas

The Highland agriculture  zone  recorded  222  mm  of  rain,  which  was  below  the  15YA  (-54%). Temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.7°C), whereas RADPAR was slightly above average (+6%). But BIOMSS was below average (-20%). The NDVI profile was near average between January to February, but was below average in March to April. As with the eastern coastal region, the sowing of maize in the long rainy season was also affected by the lack of rainfall. At the same time, the increase in precipitation during April led to an increasing trend of NDVI values. The maximum VCIx value was recorded at 0.81. In this area, cropped arable land fraction almost stayed unchanged. Overall, crop growth has been severely affected by the drought conditions.

In the Northern region, precipitation was below average at 142 mm (-56%). The temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.9°C), while RADPAR was above average (+5%). BIOMSS was below average (-21%). The maximum VCIx was normal at 0.70. The below-average trend of its crop condition development graph indicates that the area was affected by drought between March and April. The sowing of long rain maize was delayed. In addition, CALF decreased (-7%) to 72%. In general, the region has seen a decrease in rainfall, biomass, and CALF. This indicates that the region is severely affected by the drought.

The Southwest region includes the areas of Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru and Embu. It had the largest negative deviation in rainfall (-68%).The following values of indicators were observed: TEMP 20.9°C (+0.3°C), RADPAR (+4%) and BIOMSS (-27%). The decrease in precipitation led to a large decrease in biomass. However, NDVI values were close to the 5YA except for mid-March. In addition, CALF was unchanged (100%). VCIx value remained at a high level (0.86). All in all, the parameters indicate close to average conditions for this area.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, January-April 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                                                (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on rain, the eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on rain, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,

January-April 2022

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, January-April 2022