This monitoring period covers most of the winter wheat cycle from the vegetative stage to harvest. It also includes the field preparation and sowing of maize. Crop conditions were unfavorable from January to April based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators. 

The proportion of irrigated cropland in Pakistan is 80% and rainfall is not the major impact factors in the growth of crops. Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was 40% below, while air temperature (TEMP +1.9°C) and photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR +5%) were above average during this period. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in a below-average BIOMSS (-5%). At the national level, the dekad RAIN was continuously below average from the middle of March to April, together with TEMP reaching or exceeding the 15YA maximum values in the same period. Drier and hot weather resulted in below-average estimates of BIOMSS. In the Northern highlands and Northern Punjab the decreases were 14% and 8% respectively. 

The crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Pakistan presented close to average levels from January to early March. Subsequently, conditions were below average from middle March to April mainly due to the drier and warmer weather mentioned above. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles showed that 39.1% of the cropped areas were below average, mainly distributed in North highlands, Punjab and Sindh after March. Especially Punjab, which is an important wheat producing state, experienced a heat wave starting from mid-March. This may have caused a yield loss for winter wheat, because of terminal heat stress during the grain-filling period. The fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) increased by 4%. Crop conditions were slightly below average for Pakistan.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab and the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sindh.

RAIN of Northern highlands was 44% below average. TEMP (+2.2°C) and RADPAR (+8%) were both above average. The region experienced warmer and drier weather, and the estimated BIOMSS departure was -14%. The NDVI development graph shows below-average crop conditions except for March during this period, especially in the north. The region had the lowest CALF of 49% among the three AEZs, but it was above the 5YA by 1%. Crop conditions were below average. 

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded low RAIN, 11% below average. TEMP (+1.4°C) and RADPAR (+3%) were both above average. Drier and hot weather resulted in below-average estimates of BIOMSS by 8% compared to the recent fifteen-year average.The NDVI development graph shows above average crop conditions in the key growing period from January to early March. Later, crop conditions were below average due to hot and dry weather. The region had a CALF of 88%, which was above the 5YA by 1%. The combination of these factors is causing a reduction in crop production as compared to last year.

In the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sindh, RAIN was below average by 7%, while TEMP (+1.6°C) and RADPAR (+1%) were both above average. The estimated BIOMSS departure was +7%. Crop condition based on NDVI were close to or above average from January to early March, indicating favorable conditions. The CALF of 71% was above the average by 7%. Overall, prospects were satisfactory.

Figure 3.34 Pakistan's crop conditions, January-April 2022

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile

c) RAIN profile                                                      d) TEMP profile

e) Maximum VCI

f)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       g) NDVI profile

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Highlands (left) Northern Punjab (right))

Table 3.61 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2022

Table 3.62 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, January - April 2022