This reporting period covers the grain-filling and harvest periods of the second rice and maize crops. Sowing of main maize and rice started in April. The Philippines experienced significantly wetter conditions. Compared to the 15YA, the precipitation during the reporting period in the Philippines was significantly higher (RAIN +47%), while the temperature (TEMP) was almost at average and radiation was slightly lower (RADPAR -1%). The abundant precipitation resulted in a higher potential biomass (BIOMSS +12%) compared to the average. However, more precipitation did not bring expected better crop conditions. As is shown by the NDVI profile, the national NDVI stayed below average before mid-March, and then kept close to average. Considering the increased precipitation, the below-average NDVI in February and March can be partly attributed to the cloud cover in the satellite images. According to the spatial NDVI patterns, there are generally three patterns, 1) about 66.5% cropland (in light green) maintained a close-to-average NDVI the whole period. These regions were mainly located on Luzon Island and middle to western Mindanao Island. 2) around 19.3% of croplands (in dark green and blue) underwent a slightly below-average NDVI with a sudden drop. The sudden drop was concentrated in March, which was the result of a low pressure, bringing high intensity rainfall and triggering flooding in Region XII and BARMM  of the Philippines. 3) about 15.5% of the cropland experienced a decline in NDVI after early March, and these regions mainly appeared in the eastern Mindanao Island. Considering that the crop NDVI was mostly close to average, and the CALF almost reached 100%, and the VCIx index was at 0.95, the estimated production for the Philippines is normal.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three main agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for the Philippines. They are the Lowlands region (northern islands), the Hilly region (Island of Bohol, Sebu and Negros), and the Forest region (mostly southern and western islands). All the regions are characterized by a stable cropped arable land fraction (CALF almost 100%) and a high maximum VCI value (VCIx ⩾0.92).

For the Lowland region, 32% higher precipitation (RAIN), average temperature (TEMP), and about 3% higher radiation (RADPAR) were observed. The higher precipitation brought a higher potential biomass (BIOMSS +12%). As is shown by regional rainfall series profile, the increased precipitation occurred mainly in March and April, resulting in an above-average NDVI at the end of this period. Moreover, the CALF was almost at 100% and the VCIx value was as high as 0.94, indicating normal crop conditions in this region.

In the Hilly region, precipitation was about 83% higher, temperature was 0.3°C lower, and radiation was 3% higher than average. Increased precipitation and radiation promoted the potential biomass as expected, resulting in an increase of 16% (BIOMSS). However, NDVI for crops in this zone fluctuated widely and remained below average before April and stayed near average in April. The big drop of NDVI in February and March was mainly due to the influence of moisture and clouds in the hilly region, thus it does not reflect the real dynamic of crop growth. The NDVI recovered to average at the end of monitoring period, indicating a normal crop growth.

For the Forest region, the precipitation increased by about 53%, resulting in an increase of potential biomass as well (BIOMSS +12%). The temperature (TEMP) was near average, and the radiation (RADPAR) was lower by 4%. Although precipitation increased a lot, the NDVI in this region stayed below average during the whole monitoring period. The NDVI gradually declined starting in February, which corresponds to the harvest of second maize and second rice. The increase of NDVI starting in mid-March corresponds to the sowing of main rice and main maize. However, the NDVI was still below average. Although the CALF index in the area is close to 100% and the VCIx index is 0.96, it is presumed that the crop growth in the region was slightly below average considering the low NDVI.

Figure 3.35 Philippines' crop condition, January-April 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series temperature profile (left) and rainfall profile (right)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profile (right) in Lowland region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profile (right) in Hilly reigon

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and time series rainfall profile (right) in Forest region

Table 3.61 Philippines' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, January-April 2022

Table 3.62 Philippines' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 5YA, January-April 2022