From February to May in the Russian Federation, the snow melts and crops begin to grow. Different regions of Russia have different dates for the beginning of the growing season, depending on climatic conditions.  Winter crops resume their growth after the winter dormancy and snow melt periods. The sowing of summer crops starts in April and lasts until late May.

The proportion of irrigated cropland in Russia is only 3% and agro-meteorological conditions play a decisive role in the growth of almost all crops. According to national data, NDVI development was slightly delayed until the end of March but reached the 5-year average by the end of April. Atmospheric precipitation generally remained above the 15-year average, except for late February, mid-March and late April. The air temperature mainly remained above the 15-year average values until March, and then it became equal to the 15-year average and the level of the previous year from March to April.

Most main regions of winter crop production showed a negative NDVI departure during the winter period. The only exception was the North Caucasus, which had mostly positive NDVI departure during almost the whole reporting period. Positive NDVI departures were observed in April in South Caucasus, Middle Volga and Central Chernozem regions. VCIx for these regions was 0.8-1 or even above 1. In most regions of winter crop production, winter crop yields are expected to be close to the level of the previous year or slightly above it. However, the agroclimatic conditions of the coming months are important and may still affect the yield of the winter crops.

Regional analysis

South Caucasus

Precipitation was below the 15-year average by 17%, which is the highest negative departure in Russia. Temperatures was equal to the 15-year average. RADPAR was 2% above the 15-year average. Biomass was below the 15-year average by 3%. The VCIx was 0.83. CALF was below the 5-year average by 2%. NDVI was mostly above the 5-year average from January to February, then slightly below average and returned to average levels in April. The decrease in precipitation during the analyzed period may indicate lower snow cover and lower soil moisture after winter dormancy period. But as the general situation was close to the average in April, we expect winter crop yields to be close to the level of the 5-year average.

North Caucasus

Atmospheric precipitation was 14% above the 15-year average. Temperatures was by 1.3°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 5% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 8% above the 15-year average. The VCIx was 0.90. CALF was 12% above the 5-year average. NDVI remained below the 5-year average and the previous year's level during winter possibly due to higher snow cover as indicated by the increase in precipitation. In April, NDVI increased significantly exceeding the 5-year maximum. As agroclimatic conditions for winter crops in the region were favorable, we can expect winter crop yields to be higher than the 5-year average and close to 5-year maximum.

Central Russia

Atmospheric precipitation was 18% above the 15-year average. Air temperatures were by 0.8°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 17% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 3% below the 15-year average. The VCIx was 0.80. CALF was 40% below the 5-year average.  NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the previous year's level possibly due to decrease in CALF and higher snow cover in winter. Generally, precipitation was favorable for winter crops, but the decrease in CALF can result in decrease in winter crop production. It might get compensated for by increased sowing of summer crops. 

Central black soil area

The amount of precipitation was 30% above the 15-year average. Air temperatures were 1.3°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 19% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 4% above the 15-year average. The VCIx was 0.92. CALF was 6% below the 5-year average. NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the previous year's level during winter possibly due to higher snow cover. However, in April it increased reaching the level of the previous year and the 5-year average as agroclimatic conditions were generally favorable. As a result, we expect winter crop yields to be at the level of the 5-year average or above it.

Middle Volga

Atmospheric precipitation was 19% above the 15-year average. Air temperatures were 2.4°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 20% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 12% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.86. CALF was by 25% below 5-year average. Due to higher amount of snow indicated by increased atmospheric precipitation and lower CALF, registered NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the previous year's level until April, when it reached the previous year's level. As agroclimatic conditions were mainly favorable, and judging by NDVI pattern, we expect winter crop yields to be close to the level of the previous year.

Ural and western Volga

Atmospheric precipitation was 1% below the 15-year average. Temperatures were 2.3°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 8% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 12% above the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.83. CALF was 63% below the 5-year average. Possibly due to lower CALF, NDVI was mostly lower compared to the 5-year average and the previous year's level. Only in early April it became equal to the 5-year average. As agroclimatic conditions were close to average, we expect yields to be close to the 5-year average.

Eastern Siberia

Atmospheric precipitation was 17% above the 15-year average. Temperatures were 1.7°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was 7% below the 15-year average. Biomass was 5% above the 15-year average. The VCIx was 0.55. CALF was 51% below 5-year average. Due to higher amount of snow, registered NDVI was significantly lower compared to the 5-year average and the previous year's level. The significant decrease in CALF can result in lower winter crop production. However, as the area of winter crops in this region is insignificant, it will not affect the production of winter crops in the Russian Federation.

Middle Siberia

Precipitation was 9% below the 15-year average. Temperatures were by 0.8°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was close to the 15-year average. Biomass was near the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.86. CALF was 20% above the 5-year average. NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the previous year's level possibly. As a result, winter crop production may decrease. But as the area of winter crops in this region is insignificant, the decrease in winter crop production will have little effect on the production of winter crops in the Russian Federation.

Western Siberia

The amount of precipitation was 15% below the 15-year average. Air temperatures were 2.5°C above the 15-year average. RADPAR was near the 15-year average. Biomass was 10% higher than the 15-year average. VCIx was 0.71. CALF was 82% below the 5-year average. NDVI was mostly below the 5-year average and the previous year's level. As the area of winter crops in this region is insignificant, it will not affect the production of winter crops in the Russian Federation.

Figure 3.38 Russia’s crop condition, January – April 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles 

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central black soils area)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index                                                          (i) Temperature index

Table 3.69 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, January – April 2022

Table 3.70 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, January – April 2022