Crop conditions in Turkey were generally below average throughout the monitoring period. The period from January to April is the growing season of winter crops. Winter wheat is the main crop. At the end of the monitoring period, maize and rice had been sown and winter wheat was in the late growth stages. The proportion of irrigated cropland in Turkey is 20% and agro-meteorological conditions play an important role in the growth of most crops, rainfall is not the major influential factor.Rainfall (RAIN -5%) was slightly below average, while sunshine (RADPAR +2%) and temperature (TEMP -0.1°C) were close to average, resulting in a potential biomass estimate that was below average (BIOMSS -5%). Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was nearly 30% lower than the average level and the maximum VCI was 0.59.

From the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, NDVI nationwide was mostly lower than in the same period of last year. Especially in the eastern, central and western regions of Turkey, crop growth was below average during the monitoring period, mainly in the provinces of Bolu, Bilecik, Kutahya, Eskisehir, Afyonkarahisar, Sivas, Bingol, Mus, Erzurum and Bitlis, where CALF was also below average. The areas with better-than-average crop conditions were mainly located in and around the provinces of Edirne, Tekirdag, Kirklareli, Balikesir, Manisa, Izmir, and Aydin in western and northwestern Turkey. Overall, winter crop production in Turkey is likely to be lower than last year due to the largely inferior NDVI and lower CALF.

Regional analysis

The regional analysis covers four agro-ecological zones (AEZ): the Black Sea region, the Central Anatolia region, the Eastern Anatolia region and the Marmara Aegean and Mediterranean lowland region.

In the Black Sea region, crop conditions were below average throughout the monitoring period except for early January. Rainfall (RAIN +4.5%) was better than average, Temperature (TEMP -1.7°C) was slightly below average, and sunshine (RADPAR +1%) was slightly above average. Potential biomass (BIOMSS) was 9.6% lower than average. The maximum VCI was 0.7, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) had dropped by 7.5%. In summary, the crop yield is expected to be slightly lower than the average.

The Central Turkey's Anatolia region is the main grain producing area. Crop conditions were slightly below average throughout the monitoring period. Rainfall (RAIN -2.7%) was below average. Sunshine (RADPAR +2.7%) was slightly above average,  temperature (TEMP -1.4°C) was slightly below average, and potential biomass (BIOMSS) decreased by 3.7%. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) had dropped significantly. It was 51% lower than the average level. The time series rainfall profile for the area shows that rainfall in mid-February was significantly lower than the 15-year average, while it rose sharply in early March. Rainfall irregularities may have led to a significant reduction in the cropped arable land fraction (CALF). The maximum VCI average was 0.5 and crop yields in the region are expected to be below average.

In Eastern Anatolia, crop conditions were above or near average in early and mid-January, but then below average. Rainfall (RAIN -13.3%) and temperature (TEMP -0.4°C) were below average. Sunshine was above average  (RADPAR +1.4%). The combination of these factors led to a  6% reduction in potential biomass (BIOMSS). Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) decreased by 54%, the largest decrease among the four agro-ecological zones in Turkey, and the average value of the maximum VCI was 0.4. The significant CALF decrease for the region was due to the irregular rainfall during both the previous and current monitoring periods.  Crop yields in the region are expected to be below average.

As shown by the crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Marmara Aegean and Mediterranean lowland region, crop growth was near the average level or slightly better than the average level. Rainfall (RAIN -4.6%) and temperature (TEMP -0.7°C) were below average and Sunshine (RADPAR +2%) was slightly above average. Cropped arable land fraction (CALF) was lower than the 5YA (-11.7%).  In addition, the maximum VCI for this area was 0.7. Crop yields and production in this region are expected to be slightly below average.

Figure 3.46 Turkey’s crop condition, January-April 2022

e

图.X 1_4_TUR

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile                       (g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Black Sea region (left) and Central Anatolia region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Anatolia region (left) and Marmara_Agean_Mediterranean lowland region (right))

Table 3.69 Turkey’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, January-April 2022

Table 3.70 Turkey’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January-April 2022