In the Ukraine, wheat, maize, canola and sunflower are the major crops. This monitoring period (January to April, 2022) leads to the flowering stage of wheat  and canola, which will be reached in May. Main sowing period for maize will be in May as well. 

Russia Ukraine conflict had started in February. It is disrupting crop production and export to the world market. During this period, CropWatch observed that the overall agroclimatic situation was not favorable for crop growth. The rainfall (225 mm) and sunshine (502 MJ/m²) were 7% and 5% below the 15-year average, respectively, while temperature (1.8℃) was 0.2℃ above the average. Due to the drier and warmer climate, the potential biomass of crops was estimated to be 6% less than the 15-year average. In the agronomic aspect, the maximum VCI reached 0.73 only. Due to the conflict, only 61% of cropland was cropped in this season, which was significantly (-21%) lower than the 5-year average.  

Remote sensing-based national crop condition development curve showed the NDVI was consistently lower than the 5-year average since March. In line with the national NDVI dynamics, NDVI in all crop areas was lower than average since March, especially in the fertile Donbas and other areas in eastern and northern Ukraine, accounting for 41.2% of the area. Crop productions prospects are highly unfavorable. 

Since the winter crop area increased 3.8% in Ukraine, the production of winter crops increased 2.1% (520 thousand tonnes). The area increase of winter crops in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine has led to a doubling of production in both regions.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Northern wheat area with Rivne; Eastern Carpathian hills with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts and Southern wheat and maize area with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

Central wheat area was a little deficient in rainfall (-6%) and had a lower radiation (-7%) in comparison to the 15-year average, while temperature was 0.4℃ higher. Weather-based projected biomass was close to the average (-1%). CALF (-22%) was greatly reduced to 0.53, indicating a large reduction in land being cropped.  VCIx was 0.71. NDVI trended below average as well. Considering the lower CALF and below average development of NDVI, total winter wheat production will be far below average. 

Eastern Carpathian hills received less rainfall (-6%) and had a lower temperature (-0.4℃). Radiation was near average. Lower rainfall and temperature negatively affected crops, and the potential biomass is estimated to be 6% lower than the 15-year average. Similar to the central wheat area, agronomic indicators showed low CALF (0.67, -28%) and VCIx (0.69).  Combined with the low regional NDVI, the prospects for crop production are unfavorable.

Northern wheat area experienced average rainfall (+0%) and higher temperature (+0.2℃) compared to the 15-year average. Sunshine decreased by 10% in this season.  CropWatch estimated the potential biomass to be 3% below average. A 0.57 CALF indicates that only half of the arable land is cropped. This indicator was decreased by 26% compared to the 5-year average.  The area also reached a moderate VCIx (0.72). In summary, the prospects for crop condition are unfavorable.

Southern wheat and maize area were highly deficient in rainfall (-19%) but experienced a higher temperature (+0.4℃) and a normal radiation (-1%).  The shortage in rainfall led to an 11% decrease in potential biomass. Agronomic indicators were consistent with other AEZs, the region had a relatively low CALF (0.68, -16%) and VCIx (0.75). Regional NDVI was also marginally lower than the 5-year average indicating the crop condition was below average.

Ukraine's crop condition, January - April 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                        (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  January - April 2022

Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, January - April 2022

Outlook for Ukraine winter crops production

Ukrainian winter crops were planted from September to November of the previous year. According to CropWatch, the total area of winter crops for the 2021/2022 season increased by 350 thousand ha from 2020/2021 season, or up by 3.8%. Among the winter crops, the wheat and barley area accounts for 7.595 million ha, while rapeseed accounts for 1.775 million ha.

About 3.076 million hectares of crops are distributed in the conflict zone, accounting for about 32.8% of the winter sown area in Ukraine, which is significantly lower than the current international mainstream report (50%). Of these, 2.376 million hectares are wheat crops, or about 31.3% of total wheat area. The area of oil seed rape is 700,000 hectares, or about 39.4% of the total oilseed rape area of the Ukraine.

The area under crops in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions increased by 364,000 hectares and 377,000 hectares, respectively, compared to last year, with a significant increase of 126.7% and 96.3%, respectively. Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions, which are more affected by the conflict, are the main winter crop producing regions in Ukraine, with 914,900 and 852,700 hectares of winter crop area, accounting for 9.8% and 9.1% of Ukraine's winter sown area, respectively. The conflict makes it dangerous for farmers to manage their fields due to land mines and shelling. They also lack access to inputs, such as fuel, seeds, fertilizer, chemicals for crop protection and last but not least, manpower. Farming operations also face economic uncertainty, as they do not know whether they can harvest and market their crops. 

Table 3. 77 Monitoring and variation of winter crop area in Ukraine in 2022

* Crimea is not included

Most of the Ukraine is rain-fed arable land. Rainfall was 6-19% below the average of the past 15 years. This, in combination with cooler spring temperatures and lack of inputs led to an overall decline in crop growth across Ukraine in late April (Figure 1), with 51% of the country's winter crop growing areas having lower crop growth than the average level of the same period of the past five years. The situation improved in early May (Figure 1). Only 29% of winter crops were worse than average level, while 52% was close to average. The potential total national winter cereal production is estimated at 44.967 million tons, an increase of 520,000 tons or only 1.2% (Table 2). 

                                          Figure 3.42 Winter crop condition in Ukraine in later April (left) and early May (right) 2022

The situation of winter crops varies significantly among the Ukrainian regions. Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine had 10% higher precipitation, which makes the winter grain yields in the three regions increase by 18%, 13.3% and 3.9% year-on-year, respectively. Coupled with the increase in winter crops planting area, the total winter crops production in Donetsk and Luhansk regions could potentially double, increasing by 2.468 million tons and 1.871 million tons, respectively. In Kharkiv, winter crop production is anticipated to increase by 319 thousand tons, or 9.6%. These numbers show the current potential for winter wheat production. They do not take into account the impact of the conflict on farming operations, logistics and trade.

In the south-central Ukraine, the Cherkasy, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, Nikolaev and Zaporozhye regions were affected by dry weather and the forecasted crop yields decreased to different degrees, but thanks to the significant increase in the area planted with winter cereals, most of the major producing regions in the south-central Ukraine achieved an increase in potential production. Most of the northern and western regions of Ukraine suffered from the double impact of shrinking acreage and drought-induced yield decline, and an overall decline in winter cereal production.

Table 3. 78 Crop production forecast for winter crops for 2022 in Ukraine

* Crimea is not included