The monitoring period from January to April covers the main growth period of winter wheat and the planting of maize in Uzbekistan. The proportion of irrigated cropland in Uzbekistan is 30% and agro-meteorological conditions play an important role in the growth of most crops. Rainfall is not the major influential factor on irrigated cropland. The national average VCIx was 0.86, and the cropped arable land fraction increased by 11%. Among the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators, the temperature had increased by 1.7°C compared to the 15YA, especially in January and April. Rainfall was significantly above average in January and March, while below average in February and April. The accumulated rainfall decreased by 9%. RADPAR was close to average. The combination of these factors resulted in a decreased BIOMSS (-4%) compared to the 15YA.

The monitoring results reported in the last bulletin showed that the agroclimatic conditions were not favorable for the sowing and early growth of winter wheat, and the results of this monitoring period also indicated that the overall crop conditions were unfavorable, especially for the western part of Kashkadarya in the Eastern hilly cereals zone. Both the NDVI cluster graph and maximum VCI map show poor crop condition in those regions. At the national level, the NDVI of Uzbekistan had returned to the average level in April. Prospects for production of winter cereals are slightly unfavorable.

Regional analysis

In the Central region with sparse crops, crop conditions were roughly average. RAIN and RADPAR were below the fifteen-year average (-3% and -2%), whereas the temperature was significantly above average (TEMP +2.2°C). Therefore, BIOMSS had decreased by 6%. The cropped arable land fraction was only 2%, and the maximum VCI was 0.68.

In the Eastern hilly cereals zone, NDVI was below the five-year average from late February to middle April and returned to the average level in late April. The RAIN was below 15YA (-9%), and TEMP was above the average (+1.7°C). The combination of these factors resulted in a decreased BIOMSS (-4%). The maximum VCI index was 0.84 and Cropped Arable Land Fraction increased by 11% compared to the five-year average. Overall crop prospects are expected to be close to normal.

In the Aral Sea cotton zone, RAIN was 16% below the fifteen-year average and RADPAR was below average as well (-4%), while TEMP was above average (+1.6°C). These factors resulted in a slight decrease in BIOMSS (-6%). The maximum VCI graph shows that most of this region had high values of VCIx (>1.0), and the average VCIx of this region is 0.98. No croplands are cultivated during this monitoring period.

Figure 3.44 Uzbekistan crop condition, January - April 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on   NDVI	(c)    Maximum VCI
(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                       (e) NDVI profiles
(f) Rainfall profiles                                       (g)   Temperature profiles
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Central region with sparse crops (left) Eastern hilly cereals region (right)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI Aral Sea cotton region

Table 3.81 Uzbekistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 15YA, January - April 2022

Table 3.82 Uzbekistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, January - April 2022