This report covers the main growth period for rainfed crop production in Zambia. The major cereal crops in the field included maize, sorghum and millet. They were planted from mid-November to early January, depending on the agro-ecological region. The proportion of irrigated cropland in Zambia is only 4% and agro-meteorological conditions play a decisive role in the growth of almost all crops. In the eastern parts of the country, below-average monthly rainfall in November and December and above-average temperatures during the same period contributed to a lack of soil moisture and affected land preparation, planting and germination.  The CropWatch agronomic indicators at the national scale showed a decrease in rainfall (919 mm, -6%) while the temperature was unchanged (20.9ºC, +0%). Similarly, there was no significant changes in radiation (1166 MJ/m2, 0%), biomass production (1242 gDM/m2, 0%) and CALF (100%). The NDVI profile indicated below 5-year average conditions from January to March, which could be attributed to the late planting of the crops. However, the crops had mostly recovered by the time of the peak of the growing season. Overall, the VCIx was 0.94 varying from 0.80 to 1.00, with some instances in the southern and eastern parts of the country, which experienced values below 0.8.

Regional Analysis

The regional analysis showed a reduction in rainfall in the Western Semi-arid plain (-25%), Luangwa-Zambezi valley (-16%), and Central Eastern and Southern plateau (-5%), while the Northern high rainfall region experienced an increase in rainfall (1152 mm, +2%). A reduction in solar radiation (-4%) was observed in Western semi-arid plain, and when combined with reduced rainfall, there was a decline in potential biomass production (-5%). The Luangwa-Zambezi rift valley also experienced a decrease in biomass production. Poor plant establishment early in the year due to lack of moisture heavily affected biomass production in most of the three critically affected regions. The VCIx varied from 0.92 to 0.94 across the regions, with the lowest recorded in the Western semi-arid plain (0.92) and Luangwa-Zambezi rift valley (0.93). However, the area under cultivation remained at 100% in all the regions. The reported period is critical for the development of cereal crops, and moisture stress can cause large crop yield reduction nationwide.

Figure 3. 47 Zambia’s crop condition,  January - April 2022

Figure A: Phenology of main cereal crops

Figure B: Time series rainfall profile

Figure C: Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

Figure D: Time series temperature profile

Figure E: Maximum VCI

Figure F: Agroclimatic Statistics

Table 3.87 Zambia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA,  January - April 2022

Table 3.88 Zambia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA,  January - April 2022