(1)Winter crop production

The total winter crop production of China is expected to be 141.57 million tonnes in 2022, with a decrease by 1.64 million tonnes (-1.1%). Winter wheat sown area was 1.9% lower than 2021.  The increases in crop yield by 0.8%, failed to offset the impact of reduction in area planted.

Table 4.2 winter crop production (million tonnes) and annual variation (%) in China's major winter crop-producing provinces and cities in 2022

*Note: winter crop from Taiwan Province are not included in the total production of other provinces and the country. 

Due to the regional flooding that caused excessively wet soil conditions, the area sown of winter crops in North China Plain decreased in Henan (-3.7%), Hebei (-3.5%), Shandong (-2.2%) and Anhui (-2.5%). The area reduction led to a production decrease in Henan (-690 thousand tonnes), Hebei (-260 thousand tonnes), Shandong (-100 thousand tonnes) and Anhui (-590 thousand tonnes). Although the winter crop planting area in Sichuan Province also shrank by 0.6%, the weather conditions were generally favorable. Winter crop yield of Sichuan increased by 2.8% and the production increased by 130 thousand tonnes, which is the largest increase among major winter crop-producing provinces. Changes in production levels in other major provinces were within ± 100 thousand tonnes.

(2) Remote sensing-based winter wheat planted area estimation

For the 2021-22 season, China's winter wheat planted area was 23,292.5 thousand hectares, down 546.9 thousand hectares or 2.3% year-on-year (Table 4.2, Figure 4.8), mainly due to severe flooding in some areas of northern China during the winter wheat sowing period in the autumn of 2021. Continuous heavy rainfall led to excessively wet soil conditions and delayed wheat sowing. Some fields had remained very wet for a prolonged period and could not be planted anymore before the window for winter wheat sowing closed. Out of the 11 winter wheat producing provinces and regions, 8 provinces and regions had a decrease in wheat planted area. Winter wheat area  increased slightly in Shanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang

Table 4.3  Remote sensing monitoring of acreage of winter wheat planted in main producing provinces in 2022

*Note: The estimated planted area does not include Taiwan Province.

Figure 4.8 National winter wheat planting distribution in 2022 

The five provinces with the largest reductions in wheat planted areas were: Henan (-201.4 thousand hectares), Shandong (-92.9 thousand hectares), Hebei (-76.3 thousand hectares), Jiangsu (-63.4 thousand hectares) and Anhui (-49.2 thousand hectares). The reduced winter wheat planted area in those five major producing provinces accounted for 88.4% of the reduction in winter wheat area of China.

Henan Province, as the largest winter wheat producer, planted a total of 5287.0 thousand hectares of wheat in 2022, 3.7% less than in 2021. During the weeks leading up to the sowing period in 2021, Henan Province suffered heavy rainfall and in some regions, the soil was too wet for tillage and planting.  The regions with the largest decreases in winter wheat planted area were in Nanyang and Shangqiu.

The winter wheat planted area in Shandong Province is 4093.7 thousand hectares, down 2.2% compared to 2021. As in Henan, the decreased winter wheat planted area also resulted from the heavy rainfall and localized flooding along the Yellow River, mainly in Heze (-30.9 thousand hectares), Dezhou (32.0 thousand hectares) and Liaocheng (37.0 thousand hectares). Winter wheat planted area in Linyi, Binzhou, Qingdao, Weifang and other places increased from 2021, which to a certain extent offset the impact of reduced planting area in western Shandong.

In Hebei province, 2022 winter wheat planting area was 2089.6 thousand hectares, a decrease by 3.5%. The areas with a decline were concentrated near the three cities of Handan, Hengshui and Xingtai, out of which Handan had the largest decline. Reasons for the decline were the wet soil conditions, as well as the winter crop rotation fallow guide issued by the local water conservation agency. Conversion of cropland to built-up land was one of the reasons for the decline in Quzhou County, Qiu County, Feixiang and other places.

In the Anhui Province, the 2022 winter wheat planting area was 2978.1 thousand hectares, a year-on-year reduction of 1.6%. The reduction in wheat planting area mainly occurred in the region of northern Liu'an Huoqiu County and Shou County, Chuzhou County in the west of Dingyuan County and the eastern city of Tianchang. No significant change in wheat acreage in the main winter wheat producing areas north of the Huai River were observed.

(3) Winter wheat production forecast

Based on multi-source remote sensing data, including Sentinel 1/2, Landsat 8 as of mid-May 2022, in combination with the latest agro-meteorological information and ground truth samples, as well as 10m resolution cropland mask, a remote sensing-based crop yield model and big data method for crop planted area estimation method were used to monitor the winter wheat yield in China in 2022. We systematically assessed the impact of the delayed autumn sowing in 2021 and of the cold wave that hit the northern region in the spring of 2022 on the growth and yield of winter wheat.

Total national winter wheat production in 2022 is estimated at 127.64 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.53 million tonnes or 1.2% from 2021 (Table 4.3). Aided by warming temperatures and ideal soil moisture conditions, even late sown wheat caught up to average levels observed in previous years by the time it had reached the heading stage. Low rates of diseases incidence, as well as relatively sunny skies and average temperatures created favorable conditions for wheat growth and the grain filling period, which started in mid April.  Out of the total wheat area, the crop status for 12% was below that of last year. These areas were scattered throughout the main production areas. On about 7% of the area, winter wheat growth was better than in the same period of last year, mainly in northwestern Shandong, central and northeastern Jiangsu, Shaanxi and south-central Shanxi. For the remaining 81%, the status was close to the average level of the past five years. Thus, most of the wheat fields were able to compensate for the late sowing.

The forecasted average winter wheat yield for 2022 is 5,480 kg/ha, 1.1% higher than in 2021, mainly due to favorable weather conditions starting in mid to late April. They were conducive for grainfilling, resulting in an increase in wheat yields year-on-year; however, due to a 2.3% year-on-year contraction in winter wheat planted area, the national winter wheat production was still lower than last year. The total winter wheat production increased in only four non-core wheat-producing provinces in Shanxi, Sichuan, Gansu and Xinjiang out of the 11 main provinces.

The wheat production situation varies significantly among the major winter wheat-producing provinces and regions. Anhui and Shaanxi had more precipitation in late April, which improved the growth. But the lack of rain in early and mid May was not conducive for grain growth. Peak vegetation cover was lower than last year, and the yield dropped by 1.5% in Anhui and 0.7% in Shaanxi. The provinces of Henan, Shandong and Hebei in the Yellow Huaihai Plain area had below average precipitation starting in early April. But the irrigation facilities in the main wheat producing areas of the three provinces are well developed. Thanks to timely irrigation and ideal temperature and solar radiation conditions, the crop growth rate was higher than in previous years starting in mid-April. Yield increases were 1.7% in Henan, 1.9% in Shandong and 1.6% in Hebei.  Similarly, conditions were favorable in Sichuan as well, aided by ideal weather conditions, resulting on a yield increase by 2.7% year-on-year. In Shanxi, precipitation was near average. Wheat growth exceeded the rates of last year and the yield is expected to increase by 2.8%.

In general winter wheat was in above average conditions starting from the heading stage, resulting in higher yields. But the year-on-year reduction in planted area still led to a year-on-year reduction by more than 100,000 tonnes of production in the four provinces of Henan (-680,000 tonnes), Shandong (-450,000 tonnes), Hebei (-250,000 tonnes) and Anhui (-100,000 tonnes). These reductions accounted for 97% of the total reduction in production.

In general, the prospects for the upcoming wheat harvest period are favorable.

Table 4.4 Area (thousand ha), yield (kg/ha), production (million tonnes) and variation (%) of winter wheat by province in China in 2022

*Note: Winter wheat in Taiwan Province is not included.

(4)Early rice planted area

The preparation and transplanting of early rice in China’s major early rice producing provinces was completed in late April. The total area of early rice was 5228.5 thousand hectares with an increase of 18.3 thousand hectares from 2021 (5210.2 thousand hectares).

Early rice sown area in Anhui and Hubei provinces both decreased, while it increased in the other six major rice production provinces. Two reasons led to the increase of early rice area in the four top provinces Hunan(+1.0%), Jiangxi (+1.6%), Guangxi (+1.7%) and Guangdong (+0.8%): 1)  the government raised the minimum price line of rice and issued a bonus on double-season rice pattern. 2) Covid-19 has prevented some farmers from holding a job in a town and therefore, they focus more on field work.

Table 4.5 Remote sensing monitoring results of early rice preparation and transplanting area in China's main winter crop-producing provinces and regions in 2022