Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2022

Maize

In the first quarter, China imported 7.0983 million tonnes of maize, an increase of 5.5% over the same period of last year, with an import volume of US $2.289 billion. It was mainly imported from the Ukraine and United States, accounting for 56.4% and 41.7% of total imports, respectively. The export of maize was very limited, much fewer than 1000 tonnes.

Rice

In the first quarter, China imported 1.657 million tonnesof rice, an increase of 14.2% over the previous year, with an import volume of US $706 million. The main import sources were Pakistan, India, Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam, accounting for 28.3%, 27.5%, 15.1%, 13.8% and 7.9% of the total imports, respectively. The export of rice was 428.8 thousand tonnes, a decrease by 34.7% over the same period last year, and the export volume was US $211 million. It was mainly exported to Egypt, Papua New Guinea, South Korea, Bulgaria and Côte d'Ivoire, accounting for 33.4%, 13.0%, 7.8%, 7.0% and 7.0% of the total exports, respectively.

Wheat

In the first quarter, China imported 3.051 million tonnes of wheat, an increase of 4.6% over the same period last year, with an import volume of US $1.123 billion. The main import sources were Australia, France and Canada, accounting for 52.5%, 37.5% and 9.8% of the total import, respectively. The export of wheat was 32.8 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 1.17 times over the same period last year, with an export volume was US $15.1 million. The export price was US $462/ton. Wheat and mixed wheat were exported to Afghanistan. 

Soybean

In the first quarter, China imported 20.295 million tonnesof soybeans, a decrease of 4.1% over the same period last year. The import volume was US $12.33 billion. The main import source countries were the United States and Brazil, accounting for 66.1% and 31.4% of the total import volume, respectively. The soybean export was 20.9 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.5% over the same period last year, and the export volume was US $27.1 million. Soybean was mainly exported to South Korea and Japan, accounting for 48.2% and 28.4% of the total export volume, respectively.

Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2022

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2022 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will decrease in 2022. The details are as follows:

In 2022, China's maize import will decrease by 27.9%, and its export will basically stay at the same level as last year. Due to COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international maize price rose sharply. The advantage of low-cost maize imports weakened. As a consequence, maize import will fall from last year's high, and the export will remain at a low level. It is estimated that China's maize imports will decrease in 2022.

In 2022, rice imports will decrease by 5.4% and exports increase by 0.9%. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and other factors, global grain prices have risen sharply and China's rice import demand has weakened. Export is basically the same as last year. It is estimated that China's rice import will decrease in 2022.

In 2022, China's wheat import will decrease by 31.7% and export will also decrease, by 14.5%. Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, COVID-19 and other factors, the international wheat prices rose sharply. This  will result in a sharp decline in wheat imports. Wheat exports will remain at a low level. Wheat imports are expected to decrease significantly in 2022.

In 2022, China's soybean import will decrease by 4.7%, and the export will basically stay at the same as last year. Due to the vigorous implementation of the soybean and oil production capacity improvement project in China, the soybean sowing area, yield and self-sufficiency rate will rise steadily from 2022. China's soybean imports are expected to decrease in 2022.

Figure 4.16 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2022 (%)