The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop condition and food production as appraised by data up to the end of July 2022. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing weather conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries") while chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) are harvested this year or currently still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from April to July 2022.

Agroclimatic conditions and global warming

As a consequence, weather  conditions for crop production are getting more extreme, exacerbated by a third year of La Niña conditions. The period from January to July ranks as the 6^th hottest on record. The five warmest Julys on record have all occurred since 2016. Unusually high temperatures were recorded in the North China Plain, as well as in Europe. Apart from the high temperatures, Europe, as well as parts of China, were hit by severe drought conditions, causing not only damage to crops, but also limiting hydropower generation and shipping operations on the Rhine, Loire and Yangtze rivers. Thus, global warming is not only impacting agriculture, but the economy and well-being of people as well.

In many regions of the world, water is the most important factor controlling crop production. The regional rainfall patterns continue to be influenced by La Niña, as well as by climate change: The largest rainfall deficits, exceeding more than -30%, as compared to the 15 year average (15YA), were observed for most of Europe and the Horn of Africa, Central-Eastern Brazil, and the Central-northern Andes. In most other regions in South America, as well as in the Southern USA and Northern Mexico, the Maghreb, Central and Western Africa and the Indian subcontinent, rainfall deficits ranged between -10 to -30%.  The strongest positive departures were observed for Pakistan, Ural to Altai mountains, northeast of China and Eastern Australia. Only few regions, such as the northern half of the USA, Russia west of the Ural, South-East China and South-East Asia experienced normal rainfall, with a departure range of -10 to +10%.

Impact of weather conditions on crops

Maize: The main maize producing countries in the northern hemisphere have been affected by high temperature and dry weather, causing a decline in area and yield. The southern hemisphere countries had expanded their maize acreage and production increased. 2022 global maize production is expected to be 1.037 billion tonnes, a decrease of 40.68 million tonnes (-3.8%). In the 2022 northern hemisphere summer, extreme heat and dry weather had a serious adverse impact on agricultural production in Europe, resulting in reduced maize yields, among others, in France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, and the Ukraine.  Hungary, Italy, and Romania were the most severely affected countries. Their maize yields declined by more than 10%; the war in the Ukraine limited the country's agricultural production. Both area and yield fell sharply, resulting in a large decline by 34% or 12.22 million tonnes, resulting in production of 23.72 million tonnes.  The U.S. is the world's top maize producer. It experienced drought conditions in its main maize-producing regions in June, resulting in a decrease in maize production to 363.59 million tonnes, down by 17.51 million tonnes or 4.6 %. China's maize acreage shrank, and the high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River basin and flooding in some northern areas led to a reduction in maize production to 222.76 million tonnes, down by 11.08 million tonnes or 4.7%. The continued drought in Ethiopia and Kenya in the Horn of Africa led to a 20.1% and 7.8% reduction in production, respectively. Production in Canada, Nigeria, Vietnam and other countries was slightly reduced. In Brazil, the second season maize acreage increased by 9.2%. Combined with higher yields (+6,7%) due to  favorable weather during the grain filling period in April, second season total maize production increased by 16.5%, prompting Brazil's total 2021-22 maize production to reach 91.3 million tonnes, an increase of 9.6%. Argentina’s and South Africa’s maize production is estimated to be 54.97 million tonnes (+2.9%) and 11.86 million tonnes (+3.5%), respectively.

Rice: Rice production is forecasted to increase slightly  by 3.54 to 768 million tonnes (+0.5%). In China, the world's largest rice producer, production is expected to increase slightly by 0.3% to 197.01 million tonnes, although local areas were affected by  high temperatures, drought or flooding. In the important rice production countries of South- and South-East Asia, such as Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Bangladesh, precipitation has generally been normal and production levels are similar to last year. Pakistan has received significantly more precipitation, causing local flooding. But overall conditions are still conducive to the growth of rice. Production is estimated to increase by 6.8%. In central and north-central India, precipitation is significantly below average, but the main  rice producing areas have well-developed irrigation systems,  and the dry and hot weather has less of an impact on rice production. The country's rice production is expected to decline slightly by 1.7%. Rice production in the U.S. and Nigeria also declined due to below average rainfall. Overall, the global rice production and supply situation is stable and an increase by 3.54 million tonnes in global rice production is forecasted.

Wheat: Total wheat production is expected to be 708 million tonnes, a reduction of 12.68 million tonnes  (-1.8%). In most of Europe, wheat reached maturity before the drought had intensified and production levels in France, the UK and Germany dropped by less than 10%.   Romania was the country that was most severely affected and its  wheat production decreased by 13.2%. In India and Pakistan,  a heat wave led to a shorter grain filling period, resulting in a yield decline by 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.  Total wheat production is estimated at 93.24 million tonnes and 25.57 million tonnes, respectively. Due to droughts, Morocco (-33%), Ethiopia (-20.7%), Kenya (-16,6%) and  Afghanistan (-7,4%) saw sharp declines in their wheat production. In Iran, wheat acreage and yields fell simultaneously, resulting in a decline  of the country's wheat production  by 13.4%. Conditions in the USA have been mixed. Winter wheat production in the Plains was impacted by drought conditions, whereas spring wheat production in the North is benefitting from favorable moisture conditions, resulting in decline of production by 1% at the national level. Among the major wheat-producing countries, only Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia have increased wheat production. Total global wheat production has fallen to the lowest level in the past five years, and the tight situation of global wheat supply is expected to continue.

Soybean:  Global soybean production is forecasted at 320 million tonnes, with a slight decrease by 0.2%. Production in major soybean exporting countries declined, while in China, the largest importer, it increased significantly. The United States and Brazil are the world's two largest soybean exporters. Production is estimated at 102.36 million tonnes and 95.14 million tonnes, respectively, a decrease of 2.35 million tonnes and 1.16 million tonnes or 2.2% and 3.3%. The main reason for the reduction in soybean production in the United States is the low precipitation and high temperatures in its main soybean producing areas in June and July, affecting soybean flowering and podding, while Brazil is mainly affected by persistent drought conditions, which reduced yields. In contrast, China, the largest  soybean importer, increased its soybean acreage significantly this year, prompting Chinese soybean production to reach 18.15 million tonnes, the highest production in nearly 10 years, an increase of 3.81 million tonnes or 26.5%. This increase offsets  reductions in U.S. and Brazilian production. Soybean production in Canada and India decreased by 260,000 tonnes and 440,000 tonnes, respectively, while production in Russia and Argentina increased by 230,000 tonnes and 170,000 tonnes, respectively. Overall, the global soybean supply situation is normal.