Chapter 3. Core countries

3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 42 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports have been dominated by just 4 countries: USA, Brazil, Argentina, and the Ukraine. Together, they have supplied three quarters of maize being traded internationally. In South America, this reporting period covered the grain-filling period of late (2nd crop or safrinha) maize and its harvest.  In Brazil, conditions for maize were mixed. Mato Grosso is the most important maize producer within Brazil, accounting for almost half of its safrinha production. It is followed by Parana. In both states, soil moisture supply was generally sufficient to support crop growth and average yields can be expected. Goias, on the other hand, had received very little rainfall in this monitoring period and much lower than usual yields are to be expected. In the USA, the maize crop was off to a slow start, due to relatively cold and wet conditions in April. However, rainfall distribution was generally regular and high yields can be expected. Maize production in the traditionally 3rd largest exporter, the Ukraine, has been plagued by the ongoing Ukrain's crisis well as sub-optimal moisture supply, mainly in its western regions. Similarly, conditions were too dry in Romania, another important exporter of maize. In India and China, conditions for maize production have been generally favorable, although temperatures in the North China Plain have been much warmer than usual. This report covers the harvesting period of maize in Southern Africa, where most of the production is rainfed. Irregular rainfall, with intermittent drought spells, during the rainy season caused variable conditions. In almost all of Europe, where maize is grown between May and September, the drought is most likely to cause considerable yield losses.

Rice: Four out of the 5 top rice exporting countries are located in South and Southeast Asia: India supplies about 1/3 of the rice that is internationally traded, followed by Thailand with 1/5. The USA, number 3, supplies less than 10%. Vietnam contributes about 7% and Pakistan close to 6%.

Conditions for winter (Rabi) season rice production were generally favorable in India, the largest rice exporter, as well as in Bangladesh. Most of the dry season rice, which is usually planted between December and February, got harvested in April and May. Although the area of irrigated rice is much smaller than of rainfed rice, which is grown during the summer months, its production levels are much higher. In Bangladesh, boro rice production makes up for more than 50% of the total production. Production of boro rice was favorable in both countries and planting of the rainy (Kharif) season rice was well under way and mostly completed by the end of July. Another region with important dry season rice production is Southeast Asia. Thailand and Vietnam rank in the 2nd and the 3rd position of exporting countries. In these two countries, crop conditions were favorable. Conditions for the other important rice producing countries and regions, such as the Philippines and Indonesia, were generally favorable during this monitoring period. In China, conditions were generally favorable until the end of July, although a rainfall deficit that had started in July, may hamper rice production. In the USA, the South as well as the West have been affected by drier than usual conditions, prompting farmers to reduce the acreage.

Wheat: Spring wheat sowing in Australia, Canada, Northern USA, Russia, and Kazakhstan ended in May or early June. So far, soil moisture conditions have been rather favorable in these countries. There were some delays in sowing due to excessive soil moisture conditions in the Northern Prairies of the USA and Canada, but conditions for spring wheat production have been generally favorable. This is in contrast to the winter wheat production in the Southern Plains, where wheat was harvested in May and June. The prolonged drought had caused yield reductions in that region. In Europe, wheat mostly escaped the severe drought conditions, because it had reached maturity before the soils dried up. However, in Hungary, Romania, and the Ukraine, lower than average yields are to be expected. This is in contrast to Russia and Kazakhstan, where temperature and rainfall conditions were favorable and above average yield levels can be expected. In China, yields of winter wheat, which got harvested in May and June were close to record levels. Wheat harvest in the Maghreb, Levant, Iran, and Afghanistan was far below average, due to the drought conditions that have persisted in this region since last fall. In Turkey, conditions were mixed. In Argentina, low rainfall is dampening the forecasts for this year’s wheat production. Prospects for wheat production in Australia and Brazil, where wheat sowing had started in May, are favorable.

Soybean: In North America, production has benefitted from sufficient rainfall in most production regions, such as the Midwest in the USA, Ontario in Canada and the Northern Plains. Conditions for soybean production in China have been favorable so far as well, especially in the Northeast, due to above-average rainfall. In parts of Europe, the drought is negatively affecting soybean production. In South America, most of the soybeans had been harvested during the previous monitoring period. 

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

Rainfall for most of Brazil was 30% and more below average during this monitoring period. Especially Goias, located in the Cerrados, was badly affected, where total rainfall was 1 mm during the April to July period. In the important maize production region of Mato Grosso, rains were below average, but the soil carried over sufficient moisture levels from the previous monitoring period. In the South-East of Brazil, where the two important wheat production states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are located, rainfall conditions were slightly better than in the more northern states.  Most of Argentina, especially the important wheat production regions in the Pampas, experienced a precipitation deficit of close to 40%. Apart from the south, all of Mexico experienced a rainfall deficit that varied between 10 and 30%. This will have a negative impact on its rainfed maize production. In the USA, the most severe precipitation deficits were observed for Texas, Nevada, and Nebraska, whereas the deficit was slightly less severe in the neighboring states as well as in the other states in the South, apart from Florida, where conditions were average. Rainfall was more abundant than usual in the Pacific Northwest (>+30%) as compared to the 15YA. Apart from Alberta, where rainfall was average, the Canadian Prairies as well as North Dakota experienced above average rainfall. In the south-east of Africa, as well as in the Sahel from Senegal to Sudan, rainfall was more abundant than usual. However, rainfall in the south-east of Africa had been irregular during the peak of the rainy season. As this was the harvest period, the above average rains did not have a large positive impact on crop production in that region. In East Africa, the multi-year drought continued, as well as in the Maghreb. A rainfall deficit was observed for the countries bordering the Gulf of Guinea as well. In Europe, the drought was most severe In the Southwest and Southeast. Conditions were more favorable for Belarus and most of Russia, apart from its Caucasus region. The multiyear drought continued in the Middle East, Iran, and Afghanistan as well. The northern countries of Central Asia, Pakistan, Siberia, and the North-east of China, together with Eastern Australia, experienced above average rainfall. The eastern half of India, Tibet and Myanmar experienced a rainfall deficit of 10 to 30%. In the important rice production region of South-East Asia, rainfall was mostly near average.

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of April to July 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent

 2.2 Temperatures

Drought and above normal temperatures often go hand-in-hand. This can be seen when comparing the regions affected by a rainfall deficit (Fig 3.1) to the map depicting the temperature departures from the 15YA. Almost all regions that show positive temperature departure had been affected by drier than usual conditions. This can be seen in the case of Europe, northern Africa, middle East, the Southern Plains in the USA and Brazil. Cooler conditions than usual were observed for most of Argentina, the Pacific Northwest and all of Western Canada. Russia west and east of the Ural, as well     as Kazakhstan also experienced cooler than usual temperatures. Temperatures in Thailand, Cambodia and Laos were also 0.5 to 1.5°C cooler than usual. However, this did not impact rice production. For most of Africa south of the Sahara, temperatures were normal. In China, the North China Plain experienced a very hot summer.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational temperature anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of April to July 2022 average relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in °C

2.3 RADPAR

The map depicting departures from average solar radiation is more variable than the temperature departure map. In South America, the regions suffering from a rainfall deficit generally received more than average solar radiation than the 15YA. The only region with a deficit was in the south of Brazil and the north of Argentina. However, these departures had little effect on crop production levels, since most crops were reaching maturity in April or May. Mexico, as well as the Southern and Central Plains in the USA, also received above average solar radiation. California, the Pacific Northwest, the North-east of the USA as well as most of Canada had below average solar radiation. Almost all of Europe was sunnier than usual. However, due to the drought conditions, this did not necessarily translate into higher crop yields. Lower radiation levels were recorded for Russia west of the Ural, as well as West and Southern Africa. Radiation levels were higher in East Africa, South- and South-East Asia and all of China. A radiation deficit was observed for the wheat production regions of Australia.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of April to July 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly the tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high latitude regions, temperature may also become the most critical limiting factor. Most of South America had a strong negative departure from the 15YA, as well as Mexico and the High Plains in the USA. Drought stricken Europe and Eastern Africa, the Middle East, and to a lesser extent, Eastern India, Myanmar, and some regions in China, such as the North China Plain had a negative departure in estimated biomass. For the South-east of Africa, Eastern Australia, Pakistan, Siberia, Kazakhstan and the North-East of China, a strong positive departure by more than 10% for biomass production was estimated.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of April - July 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent