As shown on the phenology map, the main cereals in Afghanistan during the monitoring period of this bulletin include spring wheat, winter wheat, maize, and rice. With the exception of winter wheat, the other three crop types have been sown and have entered the growing season, and the harvesting is expected to start from August.

The agro-climatic conditions showed that RAIN decreased by 52%, TEMP increased by 1.3°C and RADPAR increased by 2%. Affected by the decrease of RAIN, BIOMSS decreased by 8%. The CALF decreased by 33%, and VCIx was 0.45.

According to the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the growth of crops is worse than that of last year and lower than the average level. This is due to the continuous drought from March to May. The spatial distribution of NDVI profiles showed that 11.7% of the total cropped areas were close to the average level in April and far below the average level in May. The NDVI departure in 13.3% of the total cropped areas changed from positive to negative. According to meteorological data, heavy rains and floods occurred in Takhar, Baghlan, Badghis and Kunduz provinces in May, with an average rainfall of 20 to 60 mm, of which Baghlan, Takhar and Badghis provinces were the most severely affected. As the irrigation facilities were damaged by the war, the crop conditions in some areas of eastern Afghanistan were also lower than the 5YA. Additionally, about 49.4% of total cropped areas were near average levels, mainly distributed in southern Afghanistan. Maximum VCI shows similar results.

Fig. f revealed that the precipitation reached the highest level in 15 years in July. Some areas in the South have suffered from floods. Due to the small area of crop land, floods have not had a great impact on agricultural production. The crop growth of most crop land returned to the average level in July.

The proportion of irrigated cropland in Afghanistan is 54%. However, due to the damage of irrigation facilities, agro-climatic conditions play an important role in the growth of most crop lands. In addition, the CPI of Afghanistan was 0.89, which indicates a poor overall agricultural production situation. Overall, as in the previous bulletin monitoring period, the situation of agricultural production in this quarter is not optimistic. In addition, climate change may make the situation worse. Low crop yields raise fears of severe food shortages.

Regional analysis

CropWatch subdivides Afghanistan into four zones based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography. They are described below as Central region with sparse vegetation (1), Dry region (2), Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region (3), and Mixed dry farming and grazing region (4).

The RAIN in the Central region with sparse vegetation was 61 mm (-62%). The TEMP was 17.2°C (+2.8°C), and the RADPAR was 1650 MJ/m² (+2%). BIOMSS decreased by 10% due to the drought. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, the NDVI was lower than the 5-year average level during the entire monitoring period. CALF had decreased by 7% and VCIx was 0.43. CPI was 0.97, which indicates a slightly lower production situation in this zone.

The Dry region recorded 78 mm of rainfall (RAIN -3%), TEMP was higher than average at 24.1°C, RADPAR was 1645 MJ/m², and BIOMSS increased by 2%. According to the NDVI-based development graph, crop conditions were lower than the 5YA during the monitoring period. CALF in this region was only 4% and VCIx was 0.23.

In the Mixed dry farming and irrigated cultivation region, the following indicator values were observed: RAIN 129 mm (-59%); TEMP 18.4°C (+1.2°C); RADPAR 1624 MJ/m² (+4%); BIOMSS decreased by 18%. CALF was 33% below average. According to the NDVI-based crop condition development graph, NDVI was below the average level between April and July, and VCIx was 0.60.

The Mixed dry farming and grazing region recorded 21 mm of rainfall (RAIN -70%). TEMP was 21.9°C (+1.1°C) and RADPAR was 1674 MJ/m² (+2%). CALF was 5%, decreased by 44% compared to the 5YA. According to the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was lower than the 5YA throughout the monitoring period, but above last year. Crop conditions in this region were below average, and VCIx was 0.45.

Figure 3.5 Afghanistan’s crop condition, April - July 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI           (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (central_Sparse_Veg Region (left) and Mixed_Farming_Graze Region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mixed_Dry_Irrigated Region (left) and Dry (right))

Table 3.2 Afghanistan’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2022

Table 3.3 Afghanistan’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2022