This bulletin covers the period from April to July during which the summer crops had reached maturity and got harvested. The only exception is maize in the northeast, which will be harvested starting in October. The sowing of wheat concluded in June and its harvest will start in late September. 

Brazil experienced another dry and hot period which has continued for two years since August 2020. During the monitoring period, Brazil received 244 mm rainfall on average, 39% below average. The rainfall profile for this year is similar to last year's. Both were below average. We also observed that the average temperature was 0.9 °C higher than 15YA and RADPAR was 6% above average. The adverse weather conditions were unfavorable for crops, resulting in a 22% drop of BIOMSS compared with 15YA. The prolonged dry and warm weather affected almost the entire country, except for Rio Grande Do Sul (+32% RAIN, with close to average TEMP and RADPAR) and some states less relevant for agriculture in the Northeast and Northern Brazil. Most of the major agricultural states in central and southern Brazil suffered from severe drought with significantly below average rainfall and well above average temperature (+0.9 °C in Parana to +2.2 °C in Goias). Goias just received 1 mm rainfall during the four months while the average value is 125 mm. Suffering from the dry conditions, the potential biomass in most states was estimated to be below average levels except for Rio Grande Do Sul which was 10% above 15YA. The potential biomass departure map presents the same spatial pattern with above-average BIOMSS only observed in southern, northern, and northeastern states.

The continuous dry weather negatively affected the second summer crops with overall crop growth conditions below average levels as shown in crop development profile based on NDVI. Distribution of NDVI departures from the 5YA and the corresponding profiles further illustrated the spatial variations of crop growth conditions. Above-average rainfall in Rio Grande Do Sul benefitted the wheat in the region resulting in slightly above average crop conditions. Similarly, scattered areas in the northeastern Brazil also presented above-average condition thanks to favorable precipitation. Most crops in Mato Grosso Do Sul, western Parana, and western Sao Paulo (in blue color on NDVI departure cluster map) presented well above average crop conditions although the regions experienced a significant rainfall shortage. The major reason is the irrigation systems along the Parana River which provides sufficient water for second crops in the region mitigating the meteorological drought. However, only 12% of the cropland in Brazil is irrigated, while most areas in central, eastern and northern Brazil are rainfed. In contrast to the irrigated fields, crop growth presented below-average conditions in those rainfed regions as dry weather conditions played a decisive role. The VCIx map shows similar spatial pattern with relatively high VCIx values in the regions along the Parana River and Rio Grande Do Sul while other regions especially in Central and Eastern Brazil present low VCIx. At the national level, VCIx was 0.89 and 99% of the cropland was cultivated, representing the 5YA.

In general, the prolonged dry weather was less favorable for summer crops while wheat crops in Rio Grande Do Sul received above-average rainfall resulting in slightly above average growth conditions.

Regional analysis

Considering the differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil. These include the Amazon zone (30), Central Savanna (31), the East coast (32), Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (33), Mato Grosso zone (34), the Nordeste (35), Parana River (36), and Southern subtropical rangelands (37). During this monitoring period, dry and hot weather dominated in most AEZs except for Southern subtropical rangelands where rainfall was 28% above average.

Similar as during the previous monitoring period, Central Savanna (31) and Mato Grosso (34) were still the two AEZs with largest negative rainfall departures in percentage. Both AEZs received less than 100 mm rainfall during the four months. They were 92% and 76% below average, respectively. Central Savanna experienced the largest positive temperature departure (+1.9°C) and lowest CALF (97%) and VCIx (0.81) values among all AEZs, indicating the significant impact of the drought. Rainfall was 17% below average in the Coast zone. The shortage of rainfall resulted in well below average NDVI as presented in the crop development profiles. Drought lowered the yield of second maize in those zones but the increased maize planted area partially compensated for the drought effects.

Rainfall in Nordeste (35) and Northeastern mixed forest and farmland (33) was generally below average with above average temperature during the monitoring period. It is noteworthy that the rainfall in late May to early June was above average which mitigated the drought effects and helped the crops recover, resulting in above or close to 5YA NDVI since June. As crops in those zones benefitted from the periodical above average rainfall, Northeastern mixed forest and farmland had the second highest VCIx value among the AEZs. Meanwhile, CALF in Nordeste was 3% above 5YA which is also the largest positive departure among the AEZs.

Parana Basin (36), the second major agricultural producing zone, received 55% less rainfall than 15YA during the monitoring period. Low rainfall together with the 1.3°C higher than 15YA temperature and 11% above average RADPAR resulted in 36% below average BIOMSS, confirming the adverse weather since April 2022. However, the negative impact of the adverse weather was limited. Peak crop growth conditions were above the 5YA and last year's values of the same period. This can be attributed  to the irrigation during the second maize growing season. Second maize yield is estimated to be higher than in 2021 for this region.

Southern subtropical rangelands (37) is the only AEZ experiencing above average rainfall but with an irregular distribution. The rainfall in the zone is 28% above 15YA and temperature and RADPAR is below average. Favorable rainfall has provided sufficient water for the wheat crops since sowing. Compared to the first and second bulletins in 2022, the weather conditions are more favorable, leading to above or close to average crop growth condition and the highest VCIx (0.95) among all AEZs. Wheat yield is projected to be above the average level. Considering that CALF is 1% above average, wheat production in the zone will be higher than 5YA.

For more indicators and detailed information, it is recommended to visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.11 Brazil’s crop condition, April-July 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters   (e) NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters in figure d

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Northeastern mixed forest and farmland

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.14  Brazil agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15 years average, April-July 2022

Table 3.15  Brazil agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5 years average, April-July 2022