Spring wheat was cultivated in most of the country during this monitoring period in Kazakhstan. Sowing took place in May and harvest will start in mid-August. Crop production in Kazakhstan is mostly rainfed, as only 3% of the cropland is under irrigation. 

Compared to the 15-year average, accumulated rainfall and temperature was above average (RAIN +38%, TEMP +0.3°C), while the radiation was close to average. The dekadal precipitation was above average from May to July and exceeded the 15-year maximum in late May and mid-June. The abundant rainfall and warm temperature resulted in an increase in the BIOMSS index by 14%. 

However, the national average maximum VCI index was 0.77 and the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was below average by 6%. The spatial VCIx map mostly matched well with the national crop condition development graphs. About 71.9% of croplands experienced slightly below average crop conditions from late April to July. About 15.6% of croplands, which were distributed in most areas of the Batysdy Kazakstan and Aktube states in northwest region, and some areas of Almaty state in east region, experienced favorable crop conditions throughout the entire monitoring period. The crop conditions in the 12.5% croplands, distributed in some areas of Kostanay, Akmola and Soltustik Kazakhstan states, were below average from April to early June and returned to above average from late June to July.

According to the agro-climate and agronomic indicators of CropWatch, the output of spring wheat in this season is estimated to be favorable, yet the acreage might have been reduced as compared to last year.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Kazakhstan, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: the Northern region (112), the Eastern plateau and southeastern region (111) and the South region (110).

The Northern region is the main spring wheat production area. The accumulated precipitation and temperature were above average (RAIN +33%, TEMP +0.2°C), while RADPAR was below average (-2%). The rainy weather resulted in an increase of BIOMSS by 14%. According to NDVI profiles, crop conditions trended below the 5YA, but surpassed last year's level by the end of this monitoring period. The average VCIx for this region was 0.76, and the proportion of cultivated land was 7% lower than the average. The spring wheat production is estimated to be lower than the five-year average, but is higher than last year. 

In the Eastern plateau and southeastern region, the average rainfall and temperature were above average (RAIN +43%, TEMP +0.1°C). The abundant rainfall led to an increase of potential biomass by 12%. Crop development, as indicated by the NDVI surpassed the 5YA in late May and then dropped to below last year's levels. The average VCIx for this region was 0.84, and CALF was below average by 3%. Output for spring wheat is estimated to be below average.

The South region had the largest precipitation departure (RAIN +99%) among the three regions. The temperature was above average (TEMP +1.3°C), while the solar radiation was below average (RADPAR -3%). The combination of agro-climatic indicators resulted in an increase of the BIOMSS index by 21%. The average VCIx for this region was 0.68 and CALF was below average by 11%. The NDVI profiles show below-average conditions from April to July. The heavy rainfall in this region might have had a negative impact on crop growth.

Figure 3.23 Kazakhstan's crop condition, April - July 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Rainfall profiles 

(e). Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                               (g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South zone)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern plateau and southeastern region)

Table 3.38 Kazakhstan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2022

Table 3.39 Kazakhstan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2022