Kenya experiences two rainy seasons. The long rains last from March to late May and the short rains from late October to December. Maize can be grown during long and short rains, while wheat is grown only during long rains. This report for the monitoring period from April to July 2022 covers the sowing and early growing stage of long rain maize and wheat.

At the national scale, precipitation was 272 mm, 57% below average. The weather was slightly warmer and RADPAR was close to the 15YA (TEMP +0.6°C, RADPAR +3%). The BIOMSS was 22% lower than average due to insufficient rainfall. According to the national rainfall profiles, Kenya has low overall precipitation and severe drought, with the 10-day cumulative rainfall in early April and mid-May showing significantly lower conditions than the 15YA. At the sub-national level, all regions received less rainfall, and the Southwest region had the largest negative departure in rainfall compared with the 15YA (RAIN -71%).

The NDVI development graph at the national level shows that the NDVI values from April to July were below average.  Crop growth conditions were significantly below average, mainly due to the drought conditions. Based on the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, only the western part of Kenya (red area), which accounts for 45.5% of the country's cultivated land, has near-average NDVI values. And eastern Kenya accounting for 12.9% of national cropland (areas in light green color) had significantly below-average values, with up to 0.2 negative NDVI departures. This agreed with the maximum VCI graph which shows relatively low VCI between 0.5 and 0.8 in the eastern regions. The national average VCI value reached 0.76, and the cropped arable land fraction was reduced by 6% compared to the 5YA. The proportion of irrigated cropland in Kenya is only 11% and agro-meteorological conditions play a decisive role in the growth of most crops. In general, crops in Kenya were severely affected by the drought, with the exception of the eastern coastal region.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for kenya: the Eastern coastal region (113), the Highland agriculture zone (114) and the Northern region (115) and the Southwest region (116).

The Eastern coastal region had the minimum negative deviation in rainfall (-9%), 0.5°C above average temperature and unchanged RADPAR. The shortage of rainfall resulted in a significant drop of NDVI compared with the 5YA in April but the BIOMSS was unchanged. The drought conditions also hampered the sowing of crops as indicated by a 16% drop in CALF compared to the 5YA. The maximum VCI was normal at 0.68. Overall, the situation in the coastal areas was unfavorable.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 281 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA (-57%). Temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.6°C), whereas RADPAR was slightly above average (+4%). BIOMSS was below average (-24%). Despite the overall drought, however the CALF increased by 5% to 90%. And the NDVI remained below the 5YA from April to July, the maximum VCI value recorded was 0.76, with yield expected to be below average. Overall, crop growth was reduced by the severe drought conditions.

In the Northern region, precipitation was significantly below average at 183 mm, decreasing by 59%. The temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.8°C), while RADPAR was above average (+2%). BIOMSS was below average (-24%). The maximum VCIx value was low (0.59). The below-average trend of its crop condition development graph indicates that the area was affected by drought between April and July. The sowing of long rain maize and wheat was delayed. In addition, CALF decreased (-23%) to 62%. In general, the region experienced a substantial reduction in rainfall, biomass, and CALF. This indicates that the region was severely affected by the drought.

The largest negative departure in RAIN (-71%) was observed in the Southwest region, where the BIOMSS decreased by 34%.  The TEMP was 0.7°C above average with unchanged RADPAR and CALF. And the NDVI curve was close to the 5YA with a VCIx value of 0.86. These indicators point to below, yet close to average conditions for this region.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, April- July 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI      (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA      (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                     (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the eastern coastal region (left), The Highland agriculture zone (right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

(j) Time series rainfall pofile, The eastern coastal region (left), the Highland agriculture zone (right)

(k) Time series rainfall pofile, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.39 Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2022

Table 3.40 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, April-July 2022