This report covers the harvest of irrigated wheat, typically sown in November and December, as well as of irrigated winter maize, sown roughly one month earlier. Maize and wheat were at the harvesting stage in March and April, respectively. Rice and soybean sowing began in April.

The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that RAIN had decreased by 18%, TEMP increased by 0.5℃ and RADPAR was above average (+2%) when compared to the 15YA. Accordingly, BIOMSS decreased by 8%. CALF was 79%. It had decreased by 6%. The VCIx was 0.75.

Compared to the 15YA average, precipitation decreased by 18%, and it was not evenly distributed. The rainfall deficit was more pronounced in the north, where the drought conditions persisted. According to the VCIx spatial patterns, very high values (greater than 1.0) occurred mainly in the coastal areas of Jalisco and Colima, east of Sonora, Veracruz, Tabasco. Extremely low values (less than 0.5) occurred in the northern border area, mainly in Coahuila de Zaragoza and northern part of Nuevo León.

As shown in the spatial NDVI profiles and distribution map, 10.6% of the total cropped areas were above average during the entire monitoring period, mainly distributed in Southeast region, including Campeche and Tabasco. This may have been due to the precipitation brought by the Tropical storm "Celia" in June. 54.3% of the cropped areas were below average, and 11.8% of the areas were significantly below average. One of the main causes of severe drought is the La Niña phenomenon, which has caused a significant rise in temperatures, less rainfall and drier soils in the areas affected by it. After June, more than half of Mexico has been suffering from drought. The northern state of Nuevo León, which is experiencing a severe water shortage, is the most seriously affected state.

The proportion of irrigated cropland in Mexico is 34.9%. Thus, rainfall plays a decisive role in the growth of most crops. Crop conditions were generally below average due to the drought.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, Mexico is divided into four agro-ecological regions. They include the Arid and semi-arid region (128), Humid tropics with summer rainfall (129), Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (130) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (131). Regional analyses of crop conditions provide more details for the production situation in Mexico.

The Arid and semi-arid region, located in northern and central Mexico, accounts for about half of the planted area in the country. The agro-climatic condition showed that RAIN decreased by 35%, TEMP increased by 0.9℃ and RADPAR increased by 1%. According to the NDVI development graph, crop condition in this zone was worse than last year. CALF decreased by 15% compared with the 5YA. This region was most severely affected by the drought in Mexico. VCIx was only 0.61.

The region of Humid tropics with summer rainfall is located in southeastern Mexico. RAIN was significantly above average (+10%), TEMP decreased by 0.3℃, RADPAR increased by 1% and BIOMSS increased by 5%. As shown in the NDVI development graph, crop conditions were close to average from May to June, and later recovered to average levels. CALF was 100%. The increased precipitation brought some relief from the drought. The VCIx (0.93) confirms that crops grew better in this region than in other regions.

The Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains is situated in central Mexico. According to the NDVI development graph, the crop condition has been below the average level since May. The agro-climatic conditions were close to the average level. RAIN decreased by 52%, TEMP increased by 0.2℃, RADPAR increased by 5%, and BIOMSS decreased by 21% compared to the 15YA. CALF was 93%, and VCIx for this zone was 0.74.

The region called Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains is located in southern Mexico. During the monitoring period, crop conditions were below average as shown by the NDVI time profiles. Agro-climatic conditions were close to average levels, including RAIN (-17%), RADPAR (+3%) and BIOMSS (-8%). CALF was 95%. The VCIx for the region was 0.86.

Figure 3.5 Mexico’s crop condition, April - July 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                     (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA           (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                  (g) Temperature profiles‘’

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI  (Arid and semi-arid regions (left) and Humid tropics with summer rainfall (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sub-humid temperate region with summer rains (left) and Sub-humid hot tropics with summer rains (right))

Table 3.2 Mexico’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2022

Table 3.3 Mexico’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2022