During this reporting period, the harvest of maize was finished in April, whereas that of the second rice and wheat were underway before June and May respectively. The main rice crop was planted in May and June. According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions were below average for the monitoring period. The military coup in February of 2021 has caused a sharp increase in cost of farm inputs, such as fertilizer, seeds and pesticides, which in turn negatively impacts crop production.

The weather in Myanmar was warmer and drier than usual in general. Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was lower (-22%) while TEMP was higher (+0.5ºC) and RADPAR was up by 3%. As a result of insufficient of rainfall, BIOMSS was below the average (-6%). Compared to the 5YA, the utilization of cropland had increased by 7%. NDVI values were average before June, while the values declined after that and recovered to above average in July. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.95.

As shown by the NDVI clusters map and profiles, the crop conditions across the country were quite different. A majority of the country’s cropland showed average and above-average crop conditions before June. It was distributed throughout the country except for the southern region. The cropland in Central Plain and Hills region showed below-average crop condition since June, which accounts for more than half of the whole cropland. However, the condition recovered to average levels in July. The lowest VCI values were observed for parts of the Central Plain and southern region.

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain, the Hills and the Delta and Southern Coast regions.

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -39%), and RADPAR and TEMP were up by 5% and 1.1ºC compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 13% lower than the 15YA.  CALF (8%) showed that 89% of the cropland was fully utilized. NDVI was above the level of the 5YA for most of the period except for June. The VCIx was 0.95. Crop conditions for this region were slightly below average.

The Hills region also had below-average rainfall (RAIN -21%). RADPAR and TEMP increased by 3% and 0.4ºC. BIOMSS dropped by 4% compared to the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully utilized (CALF 96%). The NDVI values were close to the 5YA during the period except for June with values below average. The VCIx was 0.95. Crop conditions are assessed as below the 5YA level.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN compared with the other two sub-national regions, though it was also below the 15YA (-18%). RADPAR and TEMP were 0.1ºC and 2% above average. BIOMSS was comparable to the 15YA. The cropland was not fully utilized (CALF 90%). VCIx was 0.94. The NDVI values were below the 5YA in May and June. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, April – July 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Rainfall Profile

(d) Temperature Profile

(e)  Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) in Myanmar

(f)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to %5YA

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in central plain region

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the hills region

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in delta and southern coast region

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2022

Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2022