This bulletin covers the period from April to July. Winter wheat harvest was completed in June. The planting of maize and rice started in May. Crop conditions were below average from April to early July and subsequently reached average levels. 

At the country level, RAIN was 18% above average, TEMP was also above the 15YA by 1.5°C, and RADPAR was equal to the average. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in BIOMSS exceeding the 15YA by 11%. Precipitation varied greatly in time and space. The dekad rainfall was continuously below average from April to the third dekad of June, later it reached or exceeded the maximum levels in July. The drier than usual conditions from April to June caused unfavorable conditions for the planting of summer crops, although most of them are irrigated. About 60% of the crop areas experienced drought in April, as shown in the VHIn graph. After late June, summer maize and rice had benefited from the generally favorable weather conditions, but the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) decreased by 6% compared with 5YA, which may have a negative effect on the summer crop production. 

At the national level, the NDVI development graph indicated below-average conditions for most of this monitoring period. The spatial NDVI patterns and profiles show that 66% of the cropped areas were below average in April, while 86% were below average in July. About 30% of the cropped area was continuously below average, mainly located in the Punjab and some regions along the Indus River basin. The sowing of maize was hampered by unfavorable conditions in Punjab, which resulted in a lower CALF. It was also below the average of the last 5 years in the other regions. The Indus River basin, the main rice producing area, had approached average NDVI after transplanting in June. Though below-average crop conditions were observed in the three main agricultural areas in June, above-average rainfall in late June and July for these regions, together with irrigation in the Lower Indus River basin (the proportion of irrigated cropland in Pakistan is over 80%.) helped improve the crop conditions. However, heavy rainfall and floods affected some areas of Punjab and Sindh in July. It is too early to assess the full damage that had been created by these floods. The below-average CALF will reduce crop production. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Pakistan is 1.0, indicating close to normal conditions. 

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions: the Northern highlands, Northern Punjab region and the Lower Indus River basin in South Punjab and Sind.

The NDVI development graph of Northern highlands shows below-average crop conditions from late April to early July. It was caused by drier-than-usual conditions (RAIN -50%). RADPAR was above average (+2%) and temperatures were warmer (+2.6°C). The estimated BIOMSS was 18% lower than the 15YA. Wheat conditions were unsatisfactory due to drought; weather was generally unfavorable for the establishment of maize. The region achieved a rather low CALF of 52%, which is a decrease by 6% over the 5YA and VCIx is 0.77. Crop production is expected to be below average.

The Northern Punjab, the main agricultural region in Pakistan recorded abundant RAIN (29% above average). The TEMP was above average by 1.5°C, and the RADPAR was normal. The estimated BIOMSS departure was -2%, as compared to the fifteen-year average.  Wheat had below-average NDVI values during the late growth period, which resulted in below-average yields. For summer crops, crop conditions in July were above average, but the CALF was low (64%) with a decrease by 10%. Production of summer crops is uncertain.

In the Lower Indus River basin in south Punjab and Sind, RAIN was greatly above average by 529%, while RADPAR and TEMP were below average by 3% and 0.3°C respectively. Estimated BIOMSS was 34% higher than the last fifteen-year average. The VCIx was at 0.66, which is normal for this period between the harvest of wheat and the establishment of the summer crops. Considering that the vast majority of land in this region is irrigated, prospects for the newly established crops are promising. But crops were submerged by floods in some areas of Punjab and Sindh in July, and CALF was rather low (38%), 4% lower than the five-year average. The excessive rains, together with the ensuing floods,  may hamper crop production in this region.

Figure 3.34 Pakistan's crop condition, April-July 2022

(a).Phenology of major crops

(b). Pakistan national level crop-condition development graph based on NDVI(left) and time series rainfall profile, comparing the April-July 2022 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(c). Maximum VCI

(d). Pakistan spatial NDVI patterns up to July 2022 according to local cropping patterns and compared to the 5YA (left) and associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e). crop condition development graph based on NDVI for Lower Indus river basin (Pakistan)

(f).Northern Highland (Pakistan)(right) and Northern Punjab crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left)   

(g). Proporation of VHIm categories compared with 5YA

Table3.59. Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April-July 2022

Table3.60. Pakistan, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure  from 5YA, April-July 2022