During this monitoring period, the sowing of maize and spring wheat was slightly delayed due to the cooler-than-usual temperatures in April. The winter wheat harvest started in July.

Rainfall and temperatures in Poland were 26% and 0.3°C lower, respectively, compared to the average for the same period in the past 15 years. Despite of RADPAR being 2% above average, drier and cooler weather resulted in 14% lower potential biomass. The rainfall time series showed a precipitation deficit between mid-April and mid-May. The rainfall levels generally improved to close to average starting in late May. Considering that the irrigation rate in Poland is only about 1%, both winter and spring crops are likely to be impacted by the general rainfall deficit, which will reduce crop yields. The sub-optimal precipitation levels are also reflected in the NDVI development, which was below the recent 5-year average throughout the monitoring period. Average precipitation in late July improved the conditions for the summer crops.

The NDVI departure clustering map shows that NDVI for about 62.9% of crops (marked as "red", "dark green" and "light green") were below the average of the last five years throughout the monitoring period. However, 38.3% of these crops (marked as "dark green" and "light green") recovered to near average by the end of July. A further 26.7% of the arable crops (marked "blue") were near average during the monitoring period, mainly in the central region. The remaining 10.4% of the arable crops (marked "orange") was above average in April-May, but dropped to below average in June-July, mainly in the western region.

CALF in the country reached 100%, and VCIx was 0.89. VCIx below 0.8 was mainly located at the western and southeastern regions.

In general, yields of winter crops may be slightly lower than average due to the rainfall deficits.  Average precipitation in late July may help summer crops recover to average levels. 

Regional analysis

The country is divided into four zones according to agro-ecological characteristics, including:  (a) the Northern oats and potatoes areas covering the northern half of  West Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria, (b) the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic sea),  (c) the Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and (d) the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area (Southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Sub-Carpathian along the Czech and Slovak borders).

Compared to the average of the same period of the last 15 years, all the agro-ecological indicators in the Northern oats and potatoes areas were lower, including 18% lower RAIN, 0.4°C lower TEMP, 3% lower RADPAR and 9% lower BIOMSS (the smallest departure among the four subregions). CALF in this region reached 100%, and VCIx was 0.91. NDVI was significantly lower than the average of the same period of the last five years in April and May, but slowly increased to near average from June to July.  Yields are expected to be close to the average.

Rainfall in the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area was 25% below the average of the last 15 years, TEMP was 0.2°C lower, while RADPAR was close to average, and BIOMSS was 14% lower due to drought stress. CALF was close to 100% and VCIx was 0.88. NDVI in this subregion was lower than the average of the same period in the last 5 years, while it reached above average levels in early July and dropped back to slightly below average in late July. Rainfall in this subregion exceeded 40 mm in late July, which effectively replenished soil moisture. Crop yields are expected to be close to the average.

Compared to the average for the same period of the last 15 years, the Central rye and potatoes area had 21% lower RAIN, 0.2°C lower TEMP, and 1% higher RADPAR, while drought caused 12% lower BIOMSS. CALF in the region was 100% and VCIx was 0.88. Crop growth in the region was below average throughout the monitoring period. Crop production is expected to be slightly below average.

In the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, the largest rainfall deficit (-34%) was observed. TEMP was also 0.4°C lower than the 15YA. BIOMSS was still 17% lower, although RADPAR was 4% higher. CALF in this zone was 100% and VCIx was 0.90. The crop growth in this zone was below the average of the last 5 years throughout the monitoring period. Especially in July, the NDVI was still significantly lower. Crop yield in this subregion is expected to be lower than average due to drought stress.

Figure 3.36 Poland's crop condition, April - July 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(h) Rainfall index                                            (i) Temperature Index

Table 3.64. Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2022

Table 3.65. Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2022