In Russia, the period from April to July is a time of active crop growth. At the end of July, winter crops are harvested in many regions, and spring crops reach their peak.

According to national data, NDVI during the analyzed period remained close to or slightly below the 5YA. Atmospheric precipitation from late April to early May was below the 15YA. During June and July rainfall was mostly above the 15YA. Temperatures were mostly close to the 15YA and last year's levels, except in May when they were below average. Overall, the NDVI in Russia is close to last year and to the 5YA. 

Most regions showed negative NDVI departure from April to June. Among the main regions of crop production, South Caucasus and North Caucasus regions showed mainly positive NDVI departures from April to July (6.7% of croplands marked with blue color). In Central Russia and the Central Black Soil Region the situation was mixed: south-eastern part of the territory followed the same pattern as Northern and South Caucasus; the other part (12% of croplands marked with light green color) demonstrated negative NDVI departures till the end of June, then returned to above average – likely due to the development of spring crops. The rest of the regions (32.8 % of the croplands indicated with red color on the map) demonstrated mainly negative NDVI departures except for the beginning and middle of June and middle of July.

In major winter crop production regions, such as Central Russia, the Central Black Soil Region, the North and South Caucasus, and the Middle Volga, VCIx values ranged mainly from 0.8 to 1 or higher. The winter wheat outputs are estimated to be comparable to the average. As to the major spring wheat production regions, VCIx in the Central and East Siberia regions ranged mostly from 0.8 to 0.9. The yield of spring wheat there is expected to be close to the average. The crop status is worse in Ural and Western Siberia regions. Thus, we can expect a lower-than-normal yield for spring wheat in Western Siberia and the Ural region.

Regional analysis

South Caucasus

Rainfall and temperature were 25% and 0.8°C below the 15YA, respectively. BIOMASS was 14% below the 15YA. CALF was 1% below the 5YA. VCIx was 0.86. NDVI was below the 5YA in April, rising to the 5YA at the end of April. Then in July it dropped below the 5YA and below the previous year's level.

The winter wheat yield is expected to be lower than last year and lower than the average. There is small spring wheat acreage in the region, but its yield is expected to be below the average as well as the maize yield.

Northern Caucasus

Rainfall was 26% less than the 15YA. Temperatures and RADPAR were 0.6°C and 1% below the 15YA. BIOMSS was 13% below the 15YA. CALF was 1% above the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.9.

NDVI was equal to the 5YA till early July. In July NDVI declined sharply relative to the previous year's level and the 5YA.

The winter wheat yield is expected to be close to the 5YA. Spring wheat is scarce in the region, but its yield is also expected to be at the 5YA. The maize yield is expected to be below the average level.

Central Russia 

Rainfall was 11% higher than the 15YA. Temperatures were 1.2°C less than the 15YA. Biomass was 6% higher than the 15YA. CALF was equal to the 5YA. VCIx was 0.97. NDVI was close to but mostly below the 5YA.

Based on the NDVI, the yield of winter wheat is likely to be at the level of last year, and those of spring wheat and maize are slightly lower than last year and normal. 

Central Black Soil 

Precipitation was 14% higher than the 15YA. Temperature was 1.1°C below the 15YA. RADPAR was 2% below the 15YA. BIOMSS was 8% above the 15YA. CALF was equal to the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.96. NDVI was mostly equal to the 5YA. 

Winter, spring wheat and maize yields are expected to be equal to last year's level and close to the average. 

Middle Volga

Atmospheric precipitation was 33% above the 15YA, temperatures were and RADPAR were 1.1°C and 7% below the 15YA, respectively. BIOMSS was 13% above the 15YA. CALF was 2% above the 5YA. The VCIx index was 0.85. NDVI was almost close to the 5YA from April to June and slightly above average in July. 

Winter, spring wheat and maize yields are likely to be higher than last year and slightly above the average. 

Ural and Western Volga 

Rainfall was 35% above the 15YA. Temperature and RADPAR were by 0.2°C and 5% below the 15YA, respectively. Biomass was 16% above the 15YA. CALF was 1% above the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.79. The NDVI was below the 5YA until late May, after which it rose above this level and last year's level.

Winter and spring wheat and maize yield are likely to be higher than last year and close to average. 

Western Siberia 

Rainfall increased by 32% and temperature increased by 0.7°C above the 15YA. RADPAR was 4% higher than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 14% above the 15YA. CALF was 1% less than the 5YA. The VCIx was 0.92.  NDVI was below the 5YA and last year's value.

There are very few winter crops and maize in this region. According to the graphs, the yield of spring wheat is expected to be below the average and last year's.

Middle Siberia

Precipitation was down by 1% compared to the 15YA. Temperature increased by 0.5°C. RADPAR was 3% higher than the 15YA. BIOMSS was 3% lower the 15YA. CALF was 1% higher than the 5YA. VCIx was 1.02. NDVI from April to early June was below the 5YA, but from early June to late July was equal to it.

There are no winter crops or maize in this region. Spring wheat yield is expected to be close to the average and to last year's level.

Eastern Siberia

RADPAR and temperature decreased by 3% and by 0.4°C compared to the 15YA, respectively. Precipitation was higher than the 15YA by 3%. BIOMSS was 3% above the 15YA. CALF was equal to the 5YA. VCIx was 0.96. NDVI  for the region was below the 5YA in the period from April to early June, but from early June to late July it was equal to the 5YA.

There are very few winter crops and maize in this region. The yield of spring wheat is expected to be close to the average.

Figure 3.38 Russia’s crop condition. April-July 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                  (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern Caucasus and Northern Caucasus)

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Russia and Central Chernozemic region)

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Middle Volga and Ural and western Volga region)

(i)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI in the Eastern Siberia and the Middle Siberia

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Western Siberia)

(h) Rainfall index                                                     (i) Temperature index

Table 3.68 Russia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, April – July 2022

Table 3.69 Russia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, April – July 2022