In Ukraine, this monitoring period (April to July) covers the sowing and major growing stages of maize, as well as the harvesting of winter wheat which started in July.

At the national level, a severe deficiency of rainfall was observed since May, which led to a 35% reduction of precipitation in this period as compared to the 15YA. Other agroclimatic indicators were close to normal. Temperature (15.5 ℃) was 0.6 ℃ lower while radiation (1238 MJ/m2,+0%) was normal. Due to the lack of rainfall, CropWatch predicts that the potential biomass is 19% below the 15YA. Agronomic indicators showed nearly all cropland was cultivated (CALF 100%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) reached 0.85, which was favorable.

The remote sensing-based national crop condition development curve showed that the NDVI was consistently lower than the 5YA throughout the whole period. NDVI of only 14.7% of cropland was higher than the 5YA before July.  In line with the severe condition of drought, VCIx in eastern (i.e. Transcarpatia Oblasts) and southern (i.e. Odessa Oblasts) was low (below 0.5), indicating crop development in these areas was unfavorable. In addition to the drought, the ongoing Ukraine crisis continues to negatively impact crop production. Considering that the crisis has reached a stalemate in the southern Ukraine, including Kherson, Odessa, Mykolaiv and Zaporizhia Oblasts, which are the major maize areas, the prospects for maize production are unfavorable. Wheat production had also suffered due to the crisis.

Regional analysis

Regional analyses are provided for four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) defined by their cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are referred to as Central wheat area with the Poltava, Cherkasy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kirovohrad Oblasts; Northern wheat area with Rivne; Eastern Carpathian hills with Lviv, Zakarpattia and Ivano-Frankivsk Oblasts and Southern wheat and maize area with Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.

All four AEZs experienced similar agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in this period, a significant decrease in rainfall was recorded (from -28% to -53%), and all had cooler temperatures (-0.4℃ to -0.8℃) except Eastern Carpathian hills (no change) and normal solar radiation (-1% to 4%) as compared to the 15YA. Potential biomass for all AEZs was estimated 16% to 28% lower than the 15YA. All cropland was cultivated (CALF, 99% to 100%) with normal to favorable VCIx (0.80 to 0.90). Because of the rainfall deficiency, crop development based on NDVI showed below-average levels throughout this period. Based on the above information, below-average production of maize is to be expected, especially in the Southern wheat and maize area.

Ukraine's crop condition, April - July 2022

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI 

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile

(g) Time series temperature profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central wheat area)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Eastern Carpathian hills)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern wheat area)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern wheat and maize area)

Ukraine agro-climatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,  April - July 2022

Ukraine agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2022