This report covers the period from April to July 2022. Winter wheat had reached maturity in June and July. The sowing of maize, soybean, and spring wheat concluded in May. By late July, maize had reached the silking stage and soybeans were at the flowering and podding stage. Spring wheat will be harvested in August. Overall, NDVI showed below-average crop conditions until the end of July.

At the country level, rainfall was 7% below average, the temperatures were 0.5°C above and RADPAR was near the 15YA. The time series of rainfall and temperature indicates that the United States experienced a dry and hot period with below-average rainfall in June, accompanied by above-average temperatures starting in mid-June. A rainfall deficit occurred in the Great Plains from South Dakota to Texas, including Texas (-37%), Nebraska (-32%), South Dakota (-22%), Montana (-12%), and Kansas (-9%). The northwest experienced a wet season, including Washington (+68%) and Idaho (+15%). Near-average rainfall occurred in the other regions.

The strong heterogeneity of agro-climatic conditions led to diverse crop conditions. The VCIx map indicated poor crop conditions in the Southern Plains (VCIx < 0.5) and acceptable crop conditions in other regions (VCIx > 0.8). The drought in the Southwest and Southern Plain resulted in a decrease in the cropped arable land fraction. At the national level, CALF was 3% below average. The NDVI departure profile indicated large spatial variability of crop growth conditions. Good crop conditions were prevalent in the Northwest, where above-average rainfall provided sufficient water for the crops. Poor crop conditions were observed in the Southern Plain and Southwest region from April to July, mostly due to dry and hot weather. The crop conditions in the Northern Plain improved from April to July. The crop conditions in the Corn Belt, Northern Plain, and Northeast region improved from May to July. The national-scale agricultural production situation index (APSI=1.04) indicates that the agricultural production situation is close to the average.

In short, CropWatch assessed the mixed crop conditions, and crop conditions in the Corn Belt should be closely monitored.

Figure 3.42 United States crop condition, April to July 2022

a Phenology of United States from April to July 2022

b Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

c Time series rainfall profile

d Time series temperature profile

e Maximum VCI

f Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

Regional Analysis

(1) Corn Belt

The Corn Belt is the most important maize and soybean producing zone. It includes Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan. During this period, agro-climatic conditions were normal, rainfall was 4% below the 15-year average, the temperature was average, and RADPAR was 2% below the 15YA.  A wet and cooler than usual spring delayed the planting of crops in April, which in turn caused the NDVI development curve to lag behind other years. But the NDVI profile indicated that crop conditions were close to average by the end of July. In June, the region experienced a rainfall deficit resulting in below-average crop conditions, which recovered to normal as rainfall returned to above-average levels. The CALF reached 100% and VCIx reached 0.89, identifying average crop growing conditions.

g Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(2) Northern Plains

The Northern Plains is the largest spring wheat producing region and an important maize producing region in the United States. It includes North Dakota, South Dakota, and some parts of Nebraska. Wet and cool weather in April created unfavorable conditions for the sowing of summer crops, but conditions improved in May.  Rainfall and temperature were 17% and 0.5℃ below the 15YA. The crop growth condition is close to average and better than the same period in 2021. CALF was observed at 86%, the same as the average level. VCIx of the region reached 0.82. A rainfall deficit started in June. Nevertheless, NDVI levels reached the 5YA in July. The conditions were close to average, but more rainfall is needed in August to secure high yields for soybean and maize.

Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(3) Lower Mississippi

This is the most important rice-producing area and an important soybean producing area in the United States. It includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri. Rice reached the heading stage in July. Dry and hot weather swept across this region. Agro-climatic indicators indicated that the rainfall was 17% below, the average temperature was above (+1.2°C) and the RADPAR (+2.1%) was also above the 15YA. This region experienced a significant rainfall deficit in June. Rainfall returned to normal in July. Although a high proportion of cropland in the region is irrigated, the dry and hot weather still negatively affected the crops with overall crop growth conditions slightly below average. CALF and VCIx reached 100% and 0.85, respectively. 

i Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(4) Southern Plains

The Southern Plains is the most important area for winter wheat, sorghum, and cotton production. It includes Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and eastern Colorado. During this period, the winter wheat harvest was completed. Sorghum and cotton entered their peak growth periods in July. During this monitoring period, poor crop conditions were prevalent in this region due to a severe moisture deficit and high temperatures. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators suggest that the rainfall was 16% below the 15YA, temperature and radiation were 1.5ºC and 1% above average. The significant rainfall deficit and abnormal above-average temperature caused severe drought, and led to a significant drop in the cropped arable land fraction.  CALF was only 74%, which was 14% below the 5YA. The VCIx was only 0.63. That is far below the national average, indicating poor crop conditions. In short, CropWatch assessed that below-average crop production could be expected for this region.

j Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(5) Southeast region

The Southeast region is an important cotton and maize producing area. It includes Georgia, Alabama, and North Carolina. Dry and hot weather was observed in the Southeast region. Close to average crop condition was indicated by the NDVI profile. In the reporting period, the rainfall was 9% below average, temperature and RADPAR were 1.5ºC and 1% above average. Strong rainfall in mid-May reduced the impact of high temperatures, and above-average temperatures from mid-June to late July led to below-average growth in June, but high rainfall in mid-to early July largely offset the impact of high temperatures. CALF and VCIx indicated acceptable crop growth conditions in the Southeast region. Compared to the last 5 years' average, CALF and VCIx reached 100% and 0.90, respectively. In short, CropWatch assessed that average production can be expected for the crop production in the region.

k Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

(6) Northwest

The Northwest is the second most important winter wheat producing area, but also an important spring wheat producing area. Winter wheat reached maturity and was mostly harvested by the end of July. Favorable crop conditions were indicated by the NDVI profile. Wet agro-climatic conditions were prevalent in this region. Compared to the 15 YA, rainfall was 38% above, temperature was 1.2℃ was below and PAR was 5% below.  CALF reached 90% compared to the last 5 years, which is 8% above the average. VCIx reached 0.91, indicating good crop conditions during the monitoring period. In short, CropWatch assessed that above-average crop production could be expected in the region.

l Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile

Table 3.75 United States' agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, April - July 2022

Table 3.76 United States' agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, April - July 2022