In order to estimate the production of crops in China, CropWatch used ESA Sentinel 1/2, Landsat 8 and Gaofen-1/2 domestic satellite and other multi-source remote sensing data, combined with the latest meteorological information on agriculture. Its survey data consist of nearly one million ground-based sample points in major agricultural production areas in the Northeast, North China Plain, Northwest, Southwest, Northwest and Southwest of China. In addition, CropWatch uses a nationwide 10 m resolution arable land map, the remote sensing index model, and a yield estimation model based on meteorological data to quantify and forecast the production of maize, rice and soybean as well as summer crops production in China in 2022. It also made a final estimate of summer crops and winter wheat production in China for the 2021/22 season.                                              

Figure 4.8 GVG field samples

Total annual grain production in 2022 is expected to be 643.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.62 million tons or 1.3% from the same period last year. Among them, the total staple crops (mainly wheat and rice) production remains close to 2021 at 331.24 million tons. The total output of summer crops (including maize, semi-late rice, late rice, spring wheat, soybeans, root and tuber crops and other minor crops) is expected to be 473.82 million tons, a decrease of 7.89 million tons or 1.6% from 2021. The latest remote sensing data were used to revise the total winter crops production at 142.23 million tons in 2022, a decrease of 980,000 tons or 0.7% year-on-year. The decrease was due to a reduction in total winter crop area by 1.9%, but good agro-meteorological conditions during the grainfilling period helped increase the yield per unit area by 1.2% (Table 4.2).

Table 4.2 Production per unit area and total output forecast of China's main summer crop producing provinces in 2022

Maize: China's total maize production in 2022 is estimated at 222.76 million tons, down 11.08 million tons or 4.7% year-on-year, the largest reduction in the last 10 years. Remote sensing monitoring shows that China's maize planted area will be 40.862 million hectares in 2022, a decrease of 1.359 million hectares (about 20.39 million mu) or 3.2% year-on-year. Interviews with farmers showed that the main reason for the decrease in maize acreage in 2022 was the increase in soybean planting subsidies, which motivated farmers to plant more soybeans and reduce the area under maize, with the most significant areas of maize acreage reduction in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia.

During the growing season of maize, several major production areas were affected by unfavorable agrometeorological conditions such as extreme drought or local flooding, which adversely affected the yield, estimated to be 5,452 kg/ha nationwide, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year. The northeast region is the largest maize producing area in China, and this year's significantly higher-than-usual precipitation in that region caused localized flooding in northwestern Heilongjiang Province, central Jilin Province and north-central Liaoning Province. Coupled with a significant reduction in maize acreage in Heilongjiang and northeastern Inner Mongolia, this resulted in a year-over-year decrease in maize production in the four provinces and regions of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia by 14.0%, 1.6%, 3.4% and 7.7% respectively.  The Yangtze River basin experienced higher than usual temperatures and less rainfall in July. This resulted in a serious meteorological drought in Anhui, Chongqing and Sichuan provinces. Irrigation in Anhui Province helped alleviate the drought. However, in Chongqing and Sichuan corn production is estimated to be reduced by 3.3% and 9.4% respectively.

Rice: The total national rice production is expected to be 197.01 million tons, an increase of 0.58 million tons or about 0.3% year-on-year.  The estimate for  early rice production is 27.55 million tons, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, for semi-late rice / single rice it is 134.47 million tons, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year, and for late rice it is 34.99 million tons, the same as in 2021.

The national early rice planting area in the main producing provinces was 5.228 million hectares, an increase of 0.022 million hectares or 0.4% year-on-year, mainly due to the implementation of a new subsidy policy for double cropping rice planting. Another factor was the decrease in off-farm employment opportunities due to the pandemic. The national early rice yield was 5,269 kg/ha, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year. The increase in yield and area contributed to an increase of 0.25 million tons of early rice production to 27.55 million tons, an increase of 0.9%. Early rice production in Anhui, Hubei and Guangdong decreased by 2.2%, 3.7% and 1.3% year-on-year respectively, while the rest of the major early rice producing provinces achieved an increase in production.

The agro-meteorological conditions for production in the northern semi-late rice / single rice producing areas have been generally good. The single rice production in Heilongjiang Province increased by 2.5% year-on-year, while the continuous heavy precipitation in Jilin and Liaoning was unfavorable for the flowering of single rice, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% and 1.2% in rice production in the two provinces, respectively. Persistent extreme heat in the main rice producing areas of the Yangtze River Basin is affecting grain filling, leading to a year-on-year decrease in rice production in Sichuan, Hubei and Jiangxi provinces, with rice production expected to decrease by 3.9%, 1.8% and 0.2% year-on-year, respectively. Persistent extreme heat is impacting single-season late rice production in the main producing provinces of late rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Soybeans: Total national soybean production in 2022 is expected to be 18.15 million tons, an increase of 3.81 million tons or 26.5% year-on-year, the largest increase in the past 10 years. The national soybean planted area is 9.851 million hectares, the largest planted area since the implementation of the soybean revitalization program, an increase by 2,043 million hectares (about 30.65 million mu), or about 26.2%, compared with 2021; the national soybean yield per unit area is 1,843 kg/ha, an increase of 0.3%.

The large increase in areas planted is due to an increase in various subsidies for specific planting methods, arable land rotation and use of improved seeds. They helped make soybean production more profitable. In Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, the two major soybean-producing provinces, planting area increased by 1.384 million hectares and 0.438 million hectares. It is estimate that this will lead to an increase in production by 1.93 million tons and 0.480 million tons, an increase of 40.3% and 39.6% respectively. Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi and other provinces have also increased soybean production to varying degrees.

Wheat: Using remote sensing data and ground observation data for the full growth period of wheat, the national wheat production in 2022 was estimated at 134.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.64 million tons, or 0.5%, year-on-year. Among them, the total production of winter wheat is 128.52 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons or 0.5%, and the total production of spring wheat is 5.71 million tons, basically the same as in 2021.

Table 4.3 China maize, rice, wheat and soybean production (thousand tonnes) and variation (%) in 2022