(1) International trade for major cereals and oil crop in China

Maize

In the first half of the year, China imported 13.594 million tonnes of maize, a decrease of 11.1% over the previous year. The main import source countries were the United States and Ukraine, accounting for 62.0% and 36.1% of the total import volume, respectively. The import volume was US $4.427 billion. The export of maize was 600 tonnes, a decrease of 85.9% over the previous year, and the export value was US $610.8 thousand.

Rice

In the first half of the year, China imported 3.5803 million tonnes of rice, an increase of 40.2% over the previous year. The main import sources were India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Myanmar and Thailand, accounting for 34.5%, 25.6%, 12.3%, 11.2% and 10.2% of the total import volume, respectively. The import volume was US $1.509 billion. The export of rice was 982.3 thousand tonnes, a decrease of 25.5% over the previous year. It was mainly exported to Egypt, Turkiye, Papua New Guinea, Sierra Leone and South Korea, accounting for 29.6%, 12.3%, 8.5%, 7.6% and 6.8% of the total export volume respectively. The export volume was US $456 million.

Wheat

In the first half of the year, China imported 4.9416 million tonnes of wheat, a decrease of 7.8% over the previous year. The main import source countries were Australia, France and Canada, accounting for 60.8%, 29.5% and 9.4% of the total import volume, respectively. The import volume was US $1.841 billion. Wheat exports were 76.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 1.14 times over the previous year, mainly exported to Afghanistan, with an export value of US $35.0424 million.

Soybean

In the first half of the year, China imported 46.2835 million tonnes of soybeans, a decrease of 5.4% over the previous year. The main import source countries were Brazil and the United States, accounting for 59.9% and 37.9% of the total import volume, respectively. The import volume was US $30.003 billion. Soybean exports were 47.6 thousand tonnes, an increase of 18.7% over the previous year, mainly exported to South Korea, Japan and North Korea, accounting for 48.2%, 26.2% and 9.1% of the total export.

(2) Trade prospects for major cereals and oil crop in China for 2022

On the basis of remote sensing-based production prediction in major agricultural producing countries in 2022 and the Major Agricultural Shocks and Policy Simulation Model, it is predicted that the import of major grain crops will increase slightly in 2022. The details are as follows:

In 2022, China's maize import will significantly decrease in 2022, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% and an export decrease of 75.6%. Since the beginning of this year, affected by factors such as the crisis in Ukraine and the global drought, the efficiency of global maize trade has declined, and China's import speed has slowed down. It is expected that China's maize import will decline significantly in 2022.

In 2022, China's rice import increased by 56.4%, and export decreased by 10.5%. Affected by the global extreme high temperature and other factors, India and other major exporting countries are facing production reduction, and the global import pattern will be affected. However, from the domestic perspective, due to the recovery of food and beverage consumption and the increase of feed demand, the import kept increasing throughout the year.

In 2022, China's wheat import decreased by 3.4% and export increased by 60.8% in 2022. Since the beginning of this year, the global wheat price has been running at a high level, and China's wheat import power is insufficient. It is expected that the wheat import will decrease slightly in 2022.

In 2022, China's soybean import will decrease by 6.4%, and export will increase by 12.8%. Due to the comprehensive impact of domestic soybean oil production, feed demand decline and low pressing profit, it is expected that the soybean import will be significantly reduced throughout the year.

Figure 4.16 Rate of change of imports and exports for rice, wheat, maize, and soybean in China in 2022 (%)