CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models combined with CropWatch global agro-climatic and agronomic indicators as well as meteorological data from over 20,000 meteorological weather stations around the world. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 43 major producers and exporters are estimated and predicted for 2022. The results are as follows.

Overall, extreme heat and dry weather in Europe in 2022 led to reduced crop yields in most European countries, and extreme heat also occurred in the Horn of Africa, South America and the Yangtze River Basin in China, affecting the production of crops. 2022 global maize production is expected to be 1.037 billion tonnes, a decrease of 40.68 million tonnes or 3.8%, it is the largest decrease in the past five years. Global rice production is expected to be 768 million tonnes with an increase of 3.54 million tonnes or 0.5%. Global wheat production is expected to be 708 million tonnes, a reduction of 12.68 million tonnes or 1.8%. Global soybean production is expected to be 320 million tonnes with a slight decrease of 0.2%. The overall supply situation of crop production is tightening.

Maize: the main maize producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are affected by high temperature and dry weather. Both maize cultivation area and production declined; the Southern Hemisphere countries have expanded their maize acreage and production increased. In the 2022 Northern Hemisphere summer, extreme heat and dry weather had a serious adverse impact on agricultural production in Europe, resulting in reduced maize yields in France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Ukraine and other countries.  Hungary, Italy, and Romania were the most severely affected countries. Their maize yields declined by more than 10%; the crisis in the Ukraine limited the country's agricultural production. Both area and yield fell sharply, resulting in a large decline by 34% or 12.22 million tonnes in the country's maize production to 23.72 million tonnes.  The U.S. is the world's top maize producer. It experienced drought conditions in its main maize-producing regions in June, resulting in a decrease in maize production to 363.59 million tonnes, down by 17.51 million tonnes or 4.6 %. China's maize acreage shrank, and the high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River basin and flooding in some northern areas led to a reduction in maize production to 222.76 million tonnes, down by 11.08 million tonnes or 4.7%. The continued drought in Ethiopia and Kenya in the Horn of Africa led to a 20.1% and 7.8% reduction in production, respectively. Production in Canada, Nigeria, Vietnam and other countries was slightly reduced. As the largest maize producer in the Southern Hemisphere, Brazil suffered from persistent drought conditions. The first season maize production fell by 8.7%; the second season maize acreage increased by 9.2% because in April, during the grain filling period, agricultural conditions were significantly better than the same period last year. Yield increased by 6.7%. The second season total maize production increased significantly by 16.5%, prompting Brazil's total maize production to reach 91.3 million tonnes, an increase of 9.6%; Argentina and South Africa maize production is estimated to be 54.97 million tonnes (+2.9%) and 11.86 million tonnes (+3.5%), respectively.

Rice: Production in the important rice producing countries increased slightly, prompting an increase of 3.54 million tonnes in global rice production. Asian rice production is dominant in the world, and China is the world's largest rice producer. Although local areas were affected by  high temperatures, drought or flooding. But the national rice production generally remained stable. Rice production is expected to increase slightly by 0.3% to 197.01 million tonnes. Southeast Asian countries are in the rainy season. Precipitation has generally been normal for Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Bangladesh.  Pakistan has received significantly more precipitation, causing local flooding. But overall conditions are still conducive to the growth of rice. Production is estimated to increase by 6.8%. In central and north-central India, precipitation is significantly below average, but the main  rice producing areas have well-developed irrigation systems,  and the dry and hot weather has less of an impact on rice production. The country's rice production is expected to decline slightly by 1.7%. Rice production in Cambodia, the U.S. and Nigeria also declined by varying degrees. Overall, the global rice production and supply situation is basically stable.

Wheat: Global wheat acreage shrank. In addition, drought and extreme heat caused unfavorable conditions in some production regions and the  global wheat production has declined for two consecutive years. In Western and Central Europe, the temperatures  were 1℃ to 5℃ above average. In combination with a rainfall deficit, most countries suffered from the dual impact of shortened wheat filling period and severe drought.  Romania was the country that was most severely affected and its  wheat production decreased by 13.2%. In India and Pakistan, a heat wave led to a shorter filling period, resulting in a yield decline by 2.8% and 4.9%, respectively.  Total wheat production is estimated at 93.24 million tonnes and 25.57 million tonnes, respectively. Due to droughts, Morocco (-33%), Ethiopia (-20.7%), Kenya (-16,6%) and Afghanistan (-7,4%) saw sharp declines in their wheat production. In Iran, wheat acreage and yields fell simultaneously, resulting in a decline  of the country's wheat production by 13.4%. Among the major wheat-producing countries, only Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in Central Asia have increased wheat production. Total global wheat production has fallen to the lowest level in the past five years, and the tight situation of global wheat supply is expected to continue.

Soybeans: Production in major soybean exporting countries declined, while production in China, the largest importer, increased significantly. The United States and Brazil are the world's two largest soybean exporters. Production is estimated at 102.36 million tonnes and 95.14 million tonnes, respectively, a decrease of 2.35 million tonnes and 1.16 million tonnes or 2.2% and 3.3%. The main reason for the reduction in soybean production in the United States is the low precipitation and high temperatures in the main soybean producing areas in June and July, affecting soybean flowering and podding, while Brazil is mainly affected by persistent drought conditions, which reduced yields. In contrast, China, the largest soybean importer, increased its soybean acreage significantly this year, prompting Chinese soybean production to reach 18.15 million tonnes, the highest production in nearly 10 years, an increase of 3.81 million tonnes or 26.5%. This increase offesets reductions in U.S. and Brazilian production. Soybean production in Canada and India decreased by 260,000 tonnes and 440,000 tonnes, respectively, while soybean production in Russia and Argentina increased by 230,000 tonnes and 170,000 tonnes, respectively. Overall, the global soybean supply situation is basically normal.

Table 5.1 2022 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2022 production when compared with corresponding 2021 values.