The number of people suffering from acute food hunger is expected to increase in 2022-2023, which was around 817 million in 2021, as estimated by FAO. According to the recently released 2022 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report (https://www.fao.org/3/cc0639en/cc0639en.pdf), the world continues to lose ground in its efforts to end hunger, food insecurity, and malnutrition in all its forms by 2030 due to several natural and man-made disasters affecting health and food production. This report summarizes those major disasters global wide. 

Russia-Ukraine conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict that began on 24 Feb. 2022  has caused extensive damage and loss of life, spread across rural areas, and sparked massive population displacement. More than 3.6 million people have been forced to abandon their homes and flee across borders to safety. Millions more are internally displaced. It is clear that the crisis has resulted in a massive and more deteriorating food insecurity situation, disrupted livelihoods during the agricultural growing season in Ukraine, and has also affected global food security. Nearly 50 countries depend on the Russian Federation and Ukraine for at least 30 percent of their wheat import needs. Out of these countries, 26 source over 50 percent of their wheat imports from these two countries. In that context, this crisis keeps disrupting global markets and food supplies. It has caused a challenge for food security in many countries, especially for low-income food import-dependent countries and vulnerable population groups.

Before the crisis in Ukraine, international food commodity prices had reached an all-time high. This was mostly due to market conditions but also due to high prices of energy, fertilizers, and all other agricultural services. The crisis has aggravated the situation. In March 2022, the FAO Food Price Index reached a new historical record high, up 12.6 % from February and 33.6 % from its level a year earlier, and 15.8 % higher than the peak in February 2011. In Lebanon, food prices rocketed by 332 percent, Iranian food bills jumped by 87 percent, and Turkish grocery costs rose by 95 percent. Moreover, the currencies of Zimbabwe, South Sudan, Turkey, Sri Lanka, Laos, and Malawi have lost at least 25 percent of their value against the greenback, leading to a price increase for local companies or governments purchasing global commodities, which are priced in U.S. dollars. As a result, a total of 345 million people in 82 countries are in danger of dying because of insufficient food, according to World Food Program. Despite the recent easing of prices in the commodity markets, food, fuel, and fertilizer remain significantly more expensive than a year ago. Following efforts by multi-faceted, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement with Turkey and the United Nations in Istanbul on July 22 regarding the outbound shipment of agricultural products from Black Sea ports, reopening three ports in southern Ukraine, including the port of Odessa. By the end of August, the volume of agricultural products shipped out of Ukrainian ports under the agreement framework had exceeded 1 million tons. With the increase in the volume of agricultural products shipped out of Ukraine, international food prices have fallen further, and related initiatives have also enabled the World Food Program to resume purchasing wheat from Ukraine to provide food aid to countries such as Ethiopia and Yemen to alleviate local famine problems.

The FAO Food Price Index reached a new historical record high In March 2022. Source: https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the summer crop production in Ukraine. The crop growth based on NDVI shows that it is always lower than the historical average level in this period, especially in the conflict affected areas in the southeast, with the best vegetation state index lower than 0.5.

Accodgin to the monitoring of remote sensing data, by the end of July, the proportion of arable land planted in the main wheat-corn producing region of southeastern Ukraine was only 70% and about 30% of the arable land was affected by the conflict and could not be sown, compared with 94% in the same period in 2021; Kherson, Odessa, Nikolaev, Crimea, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Dnepropetrovsk oblasts in southeastern Ukraine were the most significantly affected, with the proportion of cultivated land falling by 48%, 42%, 33%, 29%, 28%, 12% and 12% respectively. The conflict led to a significant reduction in the area planted with corn and other fall crops, while the ongoing drought led to a year-on-year decline in crop yields, resulting in a significant decline in the country's corn production to 23.72 million tons, down 12.22 million tons or 34% year-on-year, and most other fall crops, including sunflowers, also had varying degrees of yield reduction.

Floods

In Pakistan, over 1 million people were affected by heavy rains and floods, including 580 people killed and 939 injured during the summer of 2022. Pakistan has received over 60 % of its total normal monsoon rainfall in just three weeks since the start of the monsoon season in July. Heavy rains have resulted in urban and flash floods and landslides, particularly affecting Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Sindh provinces. Compared to pre-monsoon levels, rainfall has increased by 267% in Balochistan and 183% in Sindh, causing substantial damage to lives, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Some 107,000 livestock (including 29,000 large ruminants) have perished because of the floods. Over 1,000 animal shelters have been damaged, and over 1 million acres of crops have been affected by the recent floods, however, the impact on rice is limited. On the contrary, due to sufficient rainfall and favorable climate conditions, the rice yield increased by 6.8%. See Section 3.2 [Pak] for details. The recent Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) analysis of acute food insecurity projects that over 955,000 people will be food insecure in the flood-affected areas of Balochistan between July and November 2022. 

Over 50 Villages In Pakistan Submerged In Flash Floods: Report. (Source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/over-50-villages-in-pakistan-submerged-in-flash-floods-report-3210040)

In Sudan, the massive floods during the summer season in 2022 have caused the death of 52 people, while another 25 were injured. The floods have also destroyed about 8,900 houses and damaged another 20,600 in 12 Sudanian states. As of 14 Aug., the estimated number of people affected by heavy rains and floods since May exceeds 146,000. The rainy season in Sudan usually starts in June and lasts up to September, with the peak of rains and flooding observed between August and September. The Nile River water level increased during July last week but remains below the alert level. The Atbara River water level, some 300 km northeast of Khartoum, exceeded the alert level on 6 August due to heavy rain in eastern Sudan and the north-western part of Ethiopia. Compared to the same period last year, the water levels along the five major stations remain below the alert level. 

In the Nelson region, New Zealand, massive floods are currently occurring, causing damage to roads and homes and forcing more than 1200 households to evacuate. The floods came after four days of heavy rains brought by an 'atmospheric river' starting on 19 Aug. 2022. The higher than a usual number of atmospheric rivers driven by climate change is likely playing a major role in New Zealand floods in addition to high air and sea surface temperatures. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, increasing the likelihood of extremely heavy rainfall events.

Flooded properties in the Nelson region of New Zealand on Friday, 19 Aug. 2022. (Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/19/new-zealand-floods-could-take-years-to-clean-up-with-1200-people-displaced).

Drought

Europe is now hit by the most severe drought in 500 years. The drought conditions have deteriorated this summer as repeated heatwaves roll across the continent. July was reportedly the driest month in France for 60 years. By August, 100 villages had run out of drinking water, and water use had been restricted in nearly all metropolitan departments of France. Consequently, the national maize harvest is expected to be 18.5% lower than in 2021, and milk shortages are expected to follow. In Germany, the River Rhine's water level fell to 30 cm in August. The Rhine is one of Europe's most important trade routes. In Romania, water restrictions were introduced in July 2022 in preparation for drought since the national government has warned citizens not to use drinking water for other purposes such as irrigation, industrial needs, swimming pools, grass, or watering gardens. Spain and Portugal have suffered their driest climate for at least 1,200 years, with severe implications for food production and tourism. Droughts severely impact the landscape and the region's agriculture: the current meteorological conditions threaten to ruin this season's crops, which are to be exported to other European countries. Satellite images revealed that the Almendra reservoir in the Castilla León autonomous region, the third-largest reservoir in Spain, is currently at only 35.9% of its capacity. According to environmentalists, the Tagus River, the longest in the region, is at risk of drying up completely. The reservoirs at the mouth of the River Tagus have lost 23.53 cubic hectometers until mid-August and currently store 566.14 cubic hectometers, representing only 22.5% of their capacity. In the United Kingdom, July 2022 was the driest month since 1935. Agriculture fields and heathland have dried up, and reservoir levels are at a 25-year low.

Drought propagation in Europe during the current summer as observed by EOD- the European Drought Observatory. (Source: https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1000).

In Afghanistan, people continue to face the highest prevalence of insufficient food consumption globally. For nearly ten consecutive months, over 90 percent of the population has faced insufficient food consumption. Drought conditions exacerbated the extreme hunger and poverty that the country is already facing. Intense summer heat and a weak spring rainy season have effectively spelled doom for a meaningful harvest in the country. About 70% of households are unable to meet basic food and non-food needs, with particularly devastating effects for homes headed by widows, the elderly, people with disabilities, and children. An estimated 3 million children are at risk of malnutrition and susceptible to diseases such as acute watery diarrhea and measles due to weakened immunity.

The Horn of Africa, which stretches from Eritrea in the north through Ethiopia and Djibouti to the southern tips of Kenya and Somalia, is experiencing its worst drought in more than 40 years. More than 18 million people face severe hunger in Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. Around 7 million children are acutely malnourished, and 1.5 million people have been displaced. A combination of several factors such as COVID-19, climate change, and armed conflicts is pushing up international food and fuel prices. The region has experienced lower-than-average rainfall for four consecutive years.  Ukraine Crisis has impacted wheat and fertilizer supplies to the Horn of Africa. At the same time, the drought has devastated farming, with millions of livestock deaths and significant drops in food production because of failed harvests. The UN estimated that the cost of an average food basket has risen by 66% in Ethiopia and 36% in Somalia, leaving many people unable to afford even basic items. Millions of livestock animals have died due to the drought in Ethiopia (1 million), Kenya (1.5 million), and Somalia. 

In China, a nationwide drought alert was issued on 19 August 2022 as a long-running severe heatwave occurred in China’s heavily populated southwest.The abnormal atmospheric circulation is the main reason for the drought in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Sichuan and Chongqing areas. This year, the weak intensity of plum rains, coupled with the few typhoons deep inland in July and August, the subtropical high pressure anomaly, resulting in persistent low precipitation, high temperature, long lasting high temperature weather and strong extremes, and rapid development of meteorological drought. The record-breaking drought has caused some rivers in China, including parts of the Yangtze, to dry up. The Yangtze is the world’s third largest river, providing drinking water to more than 400 million Chinese people, and is the most vital waterway to China’s economy. The low water level in Yangtze River has affected hydropower, halted shipping. The situation was even graver in Sichuan province, which gets more than 80% of its energy from hydropower. The water flow to Sichuan’s hydropower reservoirs dropped by half with the increase of electricity demand by 25% this summer. The reduction in hydropower has also reportedly affected downstream populations, including Chongqing city and Hubei province. Overall, the drought has affected at least 2.46 million people and 2.2m hectares of agricultural land in Sichuan, Hebei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Chongqing. But after that, in western part of China including south-central Shaanxi, the northern part of the Sichuan basin, the Han River, the western part of the Yellow River and the Huaihuai River, meteorological drought will begin to mitigate this situation due to the high precipitation process.

The Jialing River bed at the confluence with the Yangtze River is exposed due to drought on 18 August, 2022 in Chongqing, China. (Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/19/china-issues-first-national-drought-emergency-scorching-temperatures-.html).

CropWatch carried out meteorological drought and agricultural drought monitoring in 6 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Basin of China (including Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing and Sichuan), and assessed the mitigation effect of meteorological drought. In general, a severe meteorological drought occurred in the Yangtze River Basin from July to August, but the agricultural drought was not serious, and the mitigation effect of farmland infrastructure was good.

Since July 2022, serious meteorological drought has occurred in 6 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Basin (Fig. 1). In mid July, the rainfall deficit mainly occurred in most of Jiangxi and Western Sichuan, and in the middle of Jiangxi, Western Hubei, southwestern Hunan, Chongqing and Western Sichuan in late July; In August, the meteorological drought intensified, mainly in Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei and the central part of Sichuan. In addition to the continuous high temperature weather, the drought affected area in the middle of the month further increased, and the meteorological drought was further aggravated.

Meteorological drought causes soil water deficit, causes agricultural drought (Fig. 2), and affects crop growth. As of the middle of August, the drought affected area of arable land reached 51.94 million mu (Table 1), accounting for 13.7% of the total area of arable land in the region. Among them, Sichuan Province in the upper reaches of the basin suffered the most drought, reaching 19.16 million mu, accounting for 21.5% of the total cultivated land area of the province, mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions. The proportion of cultivated land affected by drought in Chongqing is 18.6%, of which the proportion of moderate drought and above is more than 60%, which is distributed in the West and North. The drought affected areas of Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces account for 9-12% of the total cultivated land area, and the drought affected area is between 4-10 million mu. The proportion of moderate drought and above is more than 5%, mainly distributed in the northwest of Anhui Province, the north central of Jiangxi Province, the north and south of Hubei, and the East and north of Hunan.

There are obvious differences in the scope and intensity of meteorological drought and agricultural drought, which reflect the mitigation effect of drought relief measures. Drought mitigation measures such as irrigation and terracing have alleviated the impact of meteorological drought on crop growth (Fig. 3), so that the crop growth of most cultivated land affected by meteorological drought has not been greatly affected, and the cultivated land with agricultural drought is mainly light and medium drought (Fig. 2). Compared with the area affected by meteorological drought, the agricultural drought area in Jiangxi Province has decreased by 70%, Hubei and Hunan provinces by 60-70%, Anhui Province by 50%, Chongqing by about 50%, and Sichuan Province by about 40%. The reason for the low mitigation effect in Chongqing and Sichuan is that the agricultural drought in sloping farmland accounts for a large proportion.

Drought affected area and proportion of cultivated land in 6 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) in the Yangtze River Basin of China

Distribution map of meteorological drought time in 6 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) in the Yangtze River Basin from mid July to mid August 2022.

Spatial distribution map of cultivated land drought in 6 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) in the Yangtze River Basin from mid July to mid August 2022.

Mitigation effect of meteorological drought in 6 provinces (municipalities directly under the central government) in the Yangtze River Basin from mid July to mid August 2022.

Covid-19

The COVID-19 pandemic remains a real threat to lives and food chains in 2022. The pandemic fully exposed the vulnerability of the global agri-food system to shocks and stresses, highlighting the need for transformation and action to make it more resilient and inclusive. The spread of COVID-19 led to significant global disruptions to household livelihoods and food security. Income losses due to the COVID-19 restrictive measures had pushed households into more severe food insecurity and less diverse nutritional outcomes. In 2022, the World Bank's support to developing countries in the Middle East and North Africa exceeded US$5 Billion to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and the crisis in Ukraine on the economy and food security.

Desert Locust

Desert Locust is the most destructive migratory pest in the world. They are ravenous eaters who consume their own weight per day, targeting food crops and forage. Starting in early 2020, a massive desert locust upsurge broke out across greater Eastern Africa, Southwest Asia, and the area around the Red Sea, as favorable climatic conditions allowed widespread pest breeding. According to the FAO's latest updates, the current situation was calm in all regions during June and July 2022. Only low numbers of solitarious adults and hoper groups were reported in July 2022 from different sites in the summer breeding areas in the interior of Sudan, and few isolated immature solitarious adults were reported in the summer breeding areas of Marib Governorate in Yemen. As the predictable weather models indicated, above-normal rains are likely in summer breeding areas during August and September, small-scale breeding will occur in the northern Sahel from Mauritania to western Eritrea, and in breeding areas with sufficient rainfall, particularly in Sudan and Yemen, and along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border. Limited breeding may also occur in northeast Ethiopia and Somalia if good rains fall during the forecast period. These breeding activities will cause locust numbers to increase slightly by the end of the forecast period, which requires vigilance and regular surveys to be maintained in the summer breeding areas.

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Plunging global food and fuel costs offer poor countries little relief - The Washington Post