3.1 Overview

Chapter 1 has focused on large climate anomalies that sometimes reach the size of continents and beyond. The present section offers a closer look at individual countries, including the 43 countries that together produce and commercialize 80 percent of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. As evidenced by the data in this section, even countries of minor agricultural or geopolitical relevance are exposed to extreme conditions and deserve mentioning, particularly when they logically fit into larger patterns.

The global agro-climatic patterns that emerge at the MRU level (chapter 1) are reflected with greater spatial detail at the national and sub-national administrative levels described in this chapter. The “core countries”, including major producing and exporting countries are all the object of a specific and detailed narrative in the later sections of this chapter, while China is covered in Chapter 4. Sub-national units and national agro- ecological zones receive due attention in this chapter as well.

In many cases, the situations listed below are also mentioned in the section on disasters (chapter 5.2) although extreme events tend to be limited spatially, so that the statistical abnormality is not necessarily reflected in the climate statistics that include larger areas. No attempts are normally made, in this chapter, to identify global patterns that were already covered in Chapter 1. The focus is on 166 individual countries and sometimes their subdivisions for the largest ones. Some of them are relatively minor agricultural producers at the global scale, but their national production is nevertheless crucial for their population, and conditions may be more extreme than among the large producers.

1. Overview of weather conditions in major agricultural exporting countries

The current section provides a short overview of prevailing conditions among the major exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans, conventionally taken as the countries that export at least one million tons of the covered commodities. There are only 20 countries that rank among the top ten exporters of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans respectively. The United States and Argentina rank among the top ten of all four crops, whereas Brazil, Ukraine and Russia rank among the top ten of three crops.

Maize: Maize exports have been dominated by few countries. In 2021, the share of the USA was roughly one third of total maize exports, followed by Argentina (18%) the Ukraine (11%) and Brazil 8%). In Brazil, the sowing of maize had started in September. The area for the first maize crop is much smaller than for the second crop, which is grown after soybean harvest in January and February. The share of the first crop is about one third. Conditions for maize planting were mixed, some regions suffering from excessive soil moisture (Northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina) and other ones from dry conditions (Minas Gerais and Southern Rio Grande do Sul). Conditions were favorable for Parana. All in all, conditions were more favorable than last year. Unusually dry conditions in Argentina delayed the start of the planting season, except for Mesopotamia, where conditions were a bit more favorable. In the USA, maize planting had been delayed in some regions due to lack of soil moisture in the spring. These late sown crops were subsequently more exposed to the relatively dry weather conditions during the grainfilling phase in August and September. Hence, conditions were less favorable than in 2021. Maize production in the Horn of Africa was hampered by the prolonged drought, whereas in Western Africa, irregular rains and local flooding caused yield losses.  In the Ukraine, the ongoing crisis, as well as below average precipitation have caused unfavorable conditions for maize production. Drought and heat impacted maize production in other European countries as well, such as in France, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Romania. In China, conditions for maize production were generally favorable, although extremely high temperatures exceeding 35ºC during the silking stage caused some yield losses.

Rice: Four out of the 5 top rice exporting countries are located in South and Southeast Asia: India supplies about 1/3 of the rice that is internationally traded, followed by Thailand with 1/5. The USA, number 3, supplies less than 10%. Vietnam contributes about 7% and Pakistan close to 6%. California, a main producer of rice in the USA, has been plagued by a prolonged drought, which has caused a lack of water for irrigation. Thus, rice production in that state is lower than in previous years.  In India, rainfall during the monsoon season was irregular, causing a slight reduction in yield. In Pakistan, large areas got flooded in the provinces of Sindh and Baluchistan. The flooding conditions prevailed for a long period, causing significant yield losses in those provinces. In China, the grainfilling period of the late rice crop in the south was affected by extremely high temperatures, accompanied by drought conditions. However, yields of the early and main rice crops were normal. In Southeast Asia, rainfall was generally favorable in all rice producing countries, apart from Myanmar, where dry spells and internal conflicts hampered production. In Nigeria, floods along its major rivers have caused a reduction in rice production.

Wheat: Timely rain and irrigation helped sustain the growth of wheat in Brazil, where conditions were generally favorable. In Argentina, to the contrary, a severe drought caused by La Niña substantially reduced yields. The situation was similar in South Africa, where wheat yields also suffered from a lack of water. In the USA, drought continued to plague production of wheat in the High Plains, which reached maturity in July and August. Conditions were more favorable for winter wheat grown in the Pacific North West, as well as for spring wheat in the Canadian Prairies, where regular rainfall during the peak growing season helped sustain growth. This report covers the grainfilling and maturity phases of wheat grown in Europe, where excessive heat and drought hampered production. Conditions were better in North-eastern Europe, which had received relatively more rainfall and temperatures were not as extreme. Ample rainfall in Australia sustained favorable conditions and good yield can be expected. The sowing of winter wheat had started in September in the USA and Europe. Continuous dry conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma hampered the sowing and germination of winter wheat. In Europe, most regions had received sufficient rainfall to ensure germination and early establishment of the crop in October. However, soil moisture levels are still generally low and ample precipitation will be needed to replenish soil moisture.

Soybean: Brazil and the USA are the dominant exporters of soybean. Together, they account for more than 80% of global exports. In the USA, drought conditions in Nebraska and Kansas caused a reduction in overall production, as the yields and acreages in the other states had remained similar to last year’s conditions. Conditions for soybean production were challenging in the Ukraine due to the crisis and a rainfall deficit. China, on the other hand, had substantially increased its acreage and thanks to rather favorable conditions, production had increased substantially over the previous years. Conditions for soybean planting in Brazil have been relatively favorable in September and October. However, in Argentina planting was delayed due to the drought conditions.

2. Weather anomalies and biomass production potential changes

2.1 Rainfall

In South America, a severe rainfall deficit by more than -30% had been observed for the Pampas, an important region for Argentina’s wheat production. Conditions in the south of Brazil, another important region for wheat production, were more favorable. In Argentina, the dry conditions also threatened the sowing of the summer crops, such as maize and soybean. In Brazil, rains were more favorable in October. Central America experienced above average rainfall in the range of 10 to 30%, which provided good conditions for its important maize production. In Mexico, rainfall was below average by more than 10%. In the USA, a severe rainfall deficit for the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, High Plains and the Western corn belt was observed. Rainfall was average in the eastern half of the corn belt, covering Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. In Canada, the Prairies also experienced a deficit by more than 30%, whereas the conditions in Quebec were average. Rainfall in the Sahel was average or above average, whereas a rainfall deficit was observed for the West African countries bordering the Gulf of Guinea. The rainfall deficit in Africa south of the Equator had little impact on food production, because it fell into the generally dry winter months.  Rainfall was below average for almost all of Europe and the Middle East. Conditions were more favorable in Central Asia and the Volga region in Russia, which is important for its wheat production. Pakistan experienced excessive rainfall, causing a prolonged flood. Most of China south of Beijing experienced a rainfall deficit. Conditions were above average in its Northeast, an important region for crop production. South-East Asia and Australia experienced above average rainfall

Figure 3.1 National and subnational rainfall anomaly (as indicated by the RAIN indicator) of July to October 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent

2.2 Temperature anomalies

Average and warmer than average temperatures were recorded for almost all regions in the Americas. The Western halves of the USA and Canada, as well as Most of Brazil experienced above average temperatures. The only exception are Arizona and the northern Appalachians. Temperatures departures exceeded +1.5ºC for most of Western Europe. In the other regions of Europe and near East, temperatures were average or above average. Slightly cooler temperatures had been observed for the Sahel region and central northern Pakistan, as well as the north-east of China and Western and Southern Australia. Apart from the north-east, temperatures were above average by 0.5ºC to 1.5ºC in China. Southern Africa also experienced a similar departure in average temperatures.

Figure 3.2 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the TEMP indicator) of July to October 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in °C

2.3 RADPAR

In Argentina and Brazil, conditions were heterogenous. Average to above solar radiation was observed for central and eastern Brazil, as well as the province of Buenos Aires in Argentina. In Central America, which had received above average rainfall, solar radiation was below average by more than 3%. Mexico and the southwest of the USA, the states bordering the Great Lakes and the eastern USA had less solar radiation than usual. Conditions were sunnier in the Central North of the USA and in all crop production regions of Canada. The weather was sunnier in most of Europe, for which solar radiation had departed by more than 3%. The Ukraine had received below average solar radiation with a departure by more  than 3%, so did the Volga region, which is important for the Russian wheat production. West Africa, the Sahel and East Africa also received less solar radiation than usual. Most of South, Southeast and East Asia experienced a strong increase in solar radiation by more than 3%. In Australia, which experienced a wetter than normal winter, solar radiation was below average by more than 3%.

Figure 3.3 National and subnational sunshine anomaly (as indicated by the RADPAR indicator) of July to October 2022 total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent

2.4 Biomass production

The BIOMSS indicator is controlled by temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation. In some regions, rainfall is more limiting, whereas in other ones, mainly the tropical ones, solar radiation tends to be the limiting factor. For high latitude regions, temperature may also become the most critical limiting factor. In the crop production regions of Argentina and Brazil, the estimated biomass production was mostly far below average (<-10%). The situation was similar in North America. Only the Southwest and most of the Eastern regions of the USA had average to above average biomass production. Production was also below average for Central and Southeastern Europe, Turkey, Syria and Iraq. In the Sahel region, average to above average biomass production was estimated, as well as for the western half of India and Pakistan. Above average production was estimated for the winter wheat production regions of Russia, and north-eastern China. Strong positive departures were estimated for Indonesia and most of Australia.

Figure 3.4 National and subnational biomass production potential anomaly (as indicated by the BIOMSS indicator) of July to October total relative to the 2007-2021 average (15YA), in percent