The current monitoring period covers the end of the late sowing, main growth and early harvest periods of wheat and barley in Australia. The national NDVI profile was close to the maximum of the last 5 years.

In the current period, rainfall was largely higher than the 15-year average (RAIN +76%, equal to 351 mm). The average temperature was slightly lower (TEMP -1.0°C) while the sunshine was below average (RADPAR -12%). Abundant rainfall led to an increasing biomass (BIOMSS +30%). The positive agronomic indicators, with a VCIx of 0.95, an increased CALF (+15%) and CI (+5%) also showed good crop conditions.

The conditions in the four main wheat production states (New South Wales, South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia) were generally similar, with above-average rainfall (ranging from +15% to +133%), slightly cooler temperatures (ranging from -0.4°C to -0.9°C), below-average sunshine (ranging from -3% to -17%). These conditions led to an increase in estimated biomass production, ranging from 6% to 54% above average. Abundant rainfall, especially in New South Wales, contributed to the above-average yield prospects for Australia. However, flooding in early July caused some local damage. High rainfall during wheat harvest, which started in October, may reduce wheat quality. 

Spatially, the VCI map shows that the overall conditions in Australia were favorable, and low values only appeared in Southeast Australia. The spatial NDVI profiles show the same pattern. Overall, the crop conditions for Australia were very favorable.

Regional analysis

Australia has five agro-ecological zones (AEZs), namely the Arid and Semi-arid Zone (marked as 18 on the NDVI clustering map), Southeastern Wheat Zone (19), Subhumid Subtropical Zone (20), Southwestern Wheat Zone (21), Wet Temperate and Subtropical Zone (22). The Arid and Semi-arid Zone, in which hardly any crop production takes place, was not analyzed.

During the current period, the four main AEZs had agro-climatic and agronomic indicator departures in the same direction, but with large variations. The conditions in these regions were all favorable.

The Southeastern wheat area and Wet temperate and subtropical zone had the same departure features. Rainfalls was largely above average (+80%, +85%), the temperatures were slightly below average (-0.6°C, -0.1°C), while the radiation was below average (-16%, -14%). Due to the sufficient rainfall, the biomass was also largely above average (+35%, +30%). The slightly increased CALFs (+9%, +6%), CIs of greater than 100 (111%, 103%) and VCIx of greater than or equal to 0.9 (0.97, 0.90) all indicate favorable crop condition in these two zones.

The Subhumid subtropical zone reported greatly above average rainfall (+124%), which encouraged the farmers to cultivate more farmland, resulting in CALF of 89% (increased by 74%) and a CI of 120% (increased by 14%).  Also, due to the heavy rains, the temperature and radiation were both below average (-1.1°C, -13%). Considering abundant rainfall and positive farming works, the biomass was largely increased by 51%. The VCIx in this zone was even great than 1, which meant the crop conditions were highly favorable.

Positive rainfall departure was observed in the Southwestern wheat area (+14%) as well, along with lower temperatures (-0.9°C) and less sunshine (-3%). Consequently, the biomass was slightly increased by 6%. The CALF was slightly increased (+7%), but the CI was average. The VCIx was 0.9, which indicated the crop condition was adequate.

Overall, combining the agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in the JASO period were favorable, and an above-average production is estimated.

Figure 3.1 Australia’s crop condition, July – October 2022

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                       (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Rainfall profiles                                                              (g) Temperature profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Arid and semiarid zone (left) and Southeastern wheat area (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subhumid subtropical zone (left) and Southwestern wheat area (right))

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Wet temperate and subtropical zone)

Table 3.1 Australia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national   regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July 2022 - October 2022

Table 3.2 Australia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, July - October 2022